Why Sean Strickland Can Break Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 – Former UFC Champ Breaks It Down

A former UFC champion suggests that Sean Strickland's path to an upset victory against Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 lies not in grappling or striking techniques, but in exploiting a psychological weakness. He believes Strickland can draw the undefeated middleweight champion into an emotional conflict, provoke early errors, and transform a formidable stylistic challenge into a winnable championship bout.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland: The Matchup

Khamzat Chimaev is set to defend his undisputed UFC middleweight title against former champion Sean Strickland in the main event of UFC 328. This highly anticipated clash is scheduled for May 9 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Chimaev's first title defense follows his dominant performance at UFC 319, where he claimed the belt from Dricus Du Plessis through superior wrestling pressure and control over five rounds. Strickland earned his challenger position after a decisive stoppage victory over Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez on February 21, which propelled him past other contenders for the title shot.

Chimaev boasts an immaculate professional record of 15-0. He swiftly rose through the UFC ranks, notably absorbing only one significant strike across his initial four UFC appearances. His impressive resume includes victories over three former UFC champions: Kamaru Usman, Robert Whittaker (via a brutal face crank), and Dricus Du Plessis, whom he defeated in a dominant decision to capture the middleweight gold.

Strickland, with a record of 30-7, is a former middleweight champion himself, having famously upset Israel Adesanya in 2023. He subsequently lost the title to Du Plessis at UFC 297 but has since regained momentum with his knockout win against Hernandez.

UFC 328: An Ex-Champion's Blueprint for Strickland's Victory

Former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling shared his insights, emphasizing that if Strickland can win the mental battle early, he significantly increases his chances of winning the fight. In a discussion with Longo’s MMA gym manager Steve Lee, Sterling elaborated on his perspective:

“I think Strickland is going to get in his head and force Khamzat to go crazy early on,” Sterling stated. “I think Strickland has a really good chance, especially if he can get Khamzat frustrated and make him fight outside of himself.” Sterling contends that Strickland’s greatest opportunity against the explosive, elite grappler champion lies in leveraging this emotional advantage.

Evidence suggests this psychological dynamic is already unfolding. Following a recent challenge from Strickland, Chimaev retorted with a pointed message: "Habibi calm down, I destroyed the guy who beat you twice. American b____," a direct reference to his victory over Du Plessis, who had twice defeated Strickland.

This exchange is part of a growing animosity stemming from their past training sessions, during which they publicly exchanged barbs about their sparring and each other's character. This history provides Strickland with ample material to provoke Chimaev during fight week media events and faceoffs – precisely the kind of environment Sterling believes could push the champion into taking uncharacteristic risks.

If Chimaev starts the fight aggressively and emotionally, Sterling anticipates that Strickland will find opportunities to capitalize on rushed entries and over-committed strikes. Strickland's fighting style, characterized by subtle defensive reads rather than flashy counters, benefits from extended exchanges, favoring the fighter who maintains composure and structural integrity. If Strickland can withstand Chimaev’s initial onslaught and force the champion to miss or collide with his high guard, he can accumulate rounds through consistent volume and pressure, gradually eroding Chimaev’s cardio.

Chimaev’s primary vulnerability in this matchup appears to be less technical and more psychological. Should he fall prey to Strickland’s trash talk, throw overly ambitious strikes in early exchanges, or attempt takedowns from too great a distance, he risks expending vital energy against a resilient, high-cardio former champion. Longer fights inherently provide a larger window for Strickland’s consistent jab, relentless pressure, and five-round experience to become decisive factors.

Strickland has cultivated a persona as the last "old school" contender, openly labeling Chimaev as a bully and questioning his character, while vowing to "f*** [Khamzat] up" as the "last American in the sport." Chimaev has responded with his own insults and reminders of his victories over the men who defeated Strickland, further intensifying the build-up. This tension is expected to escalate through pre-fight press conferences, embedded features, and the final faceoff in Newark.

From the former bantamweight champion’s perspective, these pre-fight psychological battles are almost as crucial as the opening bell. If Strickland successfully needles Chimaev to the point where emotion overtakes strategy, the challenger could seize his best chance to reclaim the UFC middleweight title on May 9.