Projecting the Top 30 Prospects for the 2025 NBA Draft

With the 2025 NBA draft approaching (scheduled for June 25-26), the field of potential draftees is becoming clearer. It`s now time to dive into how the leading 30 prospects are projected statistically.

Unsurprisingly, Duke`s Cooper Flagg holds the top spot in my model. This model combines translated statistical output from NCAA or non-NBA professional leagues with factors like age and a player`s ranking on ESPN`s top 100 prospects list to estimate their long-term NBA impact.

However, Flagg isn`t the only standout. Three other freshmen, including his Duke teammate Kon Knueppel, are also ranked within the top 10 by the stats-only component of my projections, aligning with their positions in the top 100. Such strong consensus among top prospects often indicates a good translation to the NBA level. Details on the model`s methodology are available.

Below are the projections for the top 30 players currently ranked in ESPN`s top 100 following the early entry deadline, featuring some notable names, including a few unexpected ones.

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1. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke

As previously discussed, the question surrounding Flagg isn`t whether he`s the premier prospect this year, but rather how he stacks up historically. Only two previous No. 1 picks (Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson) had better projections than Flagg, and Luka Doncic is the only other player to rate higher in my consensus model. Flagg is unique in this draft class as the only player who doesn`t project at least 15% worse than the typical NBA-bound college prospect at his position in any key statistical category used to assess strengths and weaknesses.

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2. Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke

Having Flagg`s teammate right behind him is a more surprising result. Based purely on college statistics, Knueppel would fall several spots, more in line with his No. 9 ranking in the top 100. However, Knueppel showed the strongest projection among all prospects who competed in the Nike EYBL AAU competition in either 2022 or 2023. In 2023, he achieved a .642 true shooting percentage with a high usage rate of 35%, suggesting greater shot creation potential than displayed while playing alongside other talented players at Duke.

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3. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor

Alongside Flagg, Edgecombe is the only other prospect in this class who ranks within the top five in both my stats-only model and the top 100, which is typically a strong indicator. Although Edgecombe`s offensive efficiency during his single season at Baylor was moderate (50% on 2-pointers and 34% on 3-pointers), he contributed across the board. Edgecombe projects at least 15% better than the average NBA-bound college shooting guard in categories like rebound, block, and steal rates. This defensive potential provides Edgecombe with a high floor, while his improvement as a shooter will determine his ultimate upside.

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4. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers

Harper presents a contrast compared to Knueppel. He had a more impactful freshman season in college, averaging 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game with decent efficiency given his significant role in the Rutgers offense (29% usage rate). However, Harper was less effective in EYBL competition, and including those statistics placed Knueppel ahead in the model. Notably, Harper was an excellent finisher in college, converting 57% of his 2-point attempts – the highest among any perimeter freshman projected as a one-and-done player.

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5. Isaiah Evans, SG, Duke

This projection might seem unexpected. Evans played just 13.8 minutes per game coming off the bench for Duke, yet my model sees significant potential in his shooting. This is less about his 42% 3-point accuracy, as the small sample size (149 attempts) means his NBA projection is heavily influenced by regression to the mean. Instead, his rate of 12 3-point attempts per 40 minutes gives him the highest shooting projection of any one-and-done player in my database. Given his limited contributions outside of shooting, Evans would need to be elite in this area to secure an NBA rotation spot. Ideally, he would return for a sophomore season in a larger role, providing more data for evaluation.

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6. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma

Fears was a primary offensive force for Oklahoma. His 31.5% usage rate was the highest among major-conference freshmen, just slightly ahead of Flagg. Considering this heavy workload, Fears` ability to score with average efficiency was notable. However, to justify a similar high-usage role in the NBA, Fears must improve his 3-point shooting (currently 28%). A positive indicator is his excellent 85% free-throw accuracy, often a predictor of future 3-point success in the NBA.

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7. Ace Bailey, PF, Rutgers

In a draft class where most top prospects showed strong statistical profiles, Bailey was an exception. Specifically, Bailey`s scoring ability did not translate to high efficiency due to his challenging shot selection. According to CBBAnalytics.com, 36% of his shot attempts were non-paint 2-pointers, placing him in the 99th percentile nationally. While he made these at a respectable 43%, this is significantly less valuable than the effective 52% he shot on 3-pointers (factoring in the extra point). In the right team system, Bailey could develop into an offensive playmaker, but the wrong environment might struggle to maximize his skills.

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8. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)

Now that Essengue has moved into lottery consideration, it`s difficult to label him a sleeper, but he`s still not ranked quite as high as his stats-only projection suggests, which identifies him as the leading international prospect in the draft. In the competitive EuroCup, Essengue averaged 14.4 points and 5.3 rebounds in just 23.7 minutes per game, shooting 66% on 2-point attempts. This production came against significantly older opponents. Essengue won`t turn 19 until December, making him the second-youngest prospect in the top 100, trailing only Flagg.

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9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina

Murray-Boyles` production in his second year at South Carolina was too strong for scouts to overlook. In the SEC, the nation`s toughest conference, Murray-Boyles averaged 16.8 points and 8.3 rebounds with the highest effective field goal percentage (60%) in the conference. At 6-foot-7, he is undersized for a traditional big man, but his versatile contributions resulted in seven strengths according to my model – the most of any prospect, slightly surpassing Flagg`s six. (Memphis guard PJ Haggerty also had six strengths but more weaknesses, keeping him out of the top 30).

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10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois

Jakucionis demonstrates many promising offensive traits. He`s a tough finisher, converting 56% of his 2-pointers, which is excellent for a guard. Additionally, his 84.5% accuracy from the free-throw line indicates potential for improvement on his 32% 3-point shooting at Illinois, complementing his playmaking skills. The main concern lies with his defense. Jakucionis has a below-average steal rate for a guard and recorded only nine blocks throughout the entire season.

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11. Egor Demin, PG, BYU

Demin`s blend of court vision and size (6-foot-9), which helps him create passing angles, gives him the third-best assist projection among prospects in the top 100. Like Jakucionis, Demin was also an effective finisher from the backcourt thanks to his size, making 55% of his 2-point attempts. However, optimism regarding Demin`s shooting is lower. Not only did he make just 27% of his 3-pointers, but his free-throw percentage was slightly under 70%.

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12. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas

Johnson`s high-volume scoring is a skill set that often doesn`t project favorably in my model. Usage rate is his sole strength, while he performed significantly below average in rebounding, steals, and blocks. His NBA potential hinges on how efficient he can become as a scorer. He was acceptable at the college level largely due to 40% 3-point shooting but was less effective in EYBL play, shooting just 34% from deep in the 2023 EYBL campaign.

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13. Miles Byrd, SG, San Diego State

My highest-rated sleeper outside the first round of the top 100, Byrd rates highly due to his unusual combination of steal and block rates. Over the past decade, only four other drafted players have projected for at least two steals per 100 possessions while also blocking 2% of opponent 2-point attempts: OG Anunoby, Tari Eason, Paul Reed, Matisse Thybulle, and Williamson. Although Byrd shot just 30% from the college 3-point line, his 83% accuracy on free throws suggests he could provide enough floor spacing to keep him on the court, primarily for his defensive impact.

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14. Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State

The son of former long-time NBA guard Jason Richardson improved throughout his freshman season, showing strong statistical indicators. In fact, only Flagg was better among qualifying first-year players by Stathead.com`s box plus-minus metric. Richardson doesn`t rank quite as high in my stats-only model partly because his good 41% 3-point shooting is regressed to the mean, and he was somewhat less effective in the 2023 EYBL, where he shot just 33% from 3. Still, as a potential late lottery pick, Richardson appears to offer solid value.

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15. Asa Newell, PF, Georgia

Playing both forward positions, Newell was productive as a freshman, averaging 15.4 points on 63% 2-point shooting and 6.9 rebounds per game. His long-term NBA position remains uncertain because he projects as a below-average shot blocker for a center but needs to develop the shooting required to play power forward. He hit just 29% from the college 3-point line on low volume, though his free-throw accuracy was relatively better (75%).

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16. Boogie Fland, PG, Arkansas

As a freshman at Arkansas, Fland struggled with efficiency, shooting just 41% on 2-pointers and not well enough from 3-point range (34%) to compensate. His .498 true shooting percentage was the lowest among all top-100 prospects this season. Fland performed better in the 2023 EYBL and has a high steal rate, but I tend to agree with scouting assessments that his poor shooting makes him a more suitable second-round selection.

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17. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke

Extremely efficient on offense, where he shot 75% on 2-point attempts and an impressive 77% from the free-throw line with a relatively high usage rate (16%) for a rim-running big, Maluach did not rate as well defensively. Compared to the average NBA-bound college center, Maluach`s 7% block rate was on the lower side, and he recorded only eight steals all season. Despite this, statistics cannot fully capture Maluach`s versatility as a switchable big, which helps explain his lottery projection.

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18. Carter Bryant, F, Arizona

Primarily fitting the 3-and-D mold as a freshman, Bryant showed promise by hitting 37% of his 3-point attempts and 59% of his infrequent 2-pointers, while also blocking shots at an impressive rate for a perimeter player. Among non-post players in the top 100, only Nolan Traore has a superior block projection.

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19. Walter Clayton Jr., PG, Florida

A breakout player during the NCAA tournament, Clayton`s rise in the top 100 brought him closer to his consistent ranking in the stats-only model. My model highly values Clayton`s strong sophomore season at Iona, where he was named MAAC Player of the Year, and his career 39% 3-point shooting. At 22, Clayton should naturally be more productive than younger prospects ahead of him, but he outpaced many even after accounting for age.

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20. Liam McNeeley, SF, UConn

McNeeley was an inefficient scorer at UConn, making 32% of his 3s and 44% of his 2s, but there are reasons to believe his shooting could improve. McNeeley hit 37% of his 3s in the 2023 EYBL and is an excellent 87% free-throw shooter at UConn, which is a good indicator.

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21. Rasheer Fleming, PF, Saint Joseph`s

Fleming`s combination of solid rebounding and shot blocking already made him stand out in statistical models before his offensive breakout in 2024-25. Increasing his usage rate, Fleming also achieved a career-best 39% from 3-point range, demonstrating the stretch ability needed for him to play power forward in the NBA.

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22. Kam Jones, G, Marquette

Following Tyler Kolek`s departure (drafted by the Knicks in the second round), Jones moved into an on-ball role in 2024-25 after thriving off the ball with Kolek. Jones more than doubled his assist rate to 5.9 per game while increasing his scoring and earning consensus All-America honors as a senior. Strong finishing (59% career on 2s) and high-volume 3-point shooting (9.0 career attempts per 40 minutes) suggest Jones could excel as a creative threat off the bench.

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23. Koby Brea, SG, Kentucky

Rated as the top shooter in this draft class, Brea offers clear value with his 43% career accuracy beyond the arc and sufficient size (6-foot-6) to get his shot off against NBA defenders. The right team could potentially utilize Brea`s ability to shoot off screens more effectively. He shot an effective 59% coming off screens last season, per Synergy Sports, but only had 31 such attempts in Kentucky`s offense.

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24. Tahaad Pettiford, PG, Auburn

Coming off the bench for a deep Auburn team that started five seniors, Pettiford was the third-leading scorer as a freshman, behind fellow NBA prospects Johni Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara. He needs to improve his finishing, having shot just 49% on 2s as an undersized point guard prospect, but his assist-to-turnover ratio near 2 was promising.

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25. Payton Sandfort, SF, Iowa

Sandfort saw a dip in offensive efficiency as a senior, hitting both 2s (49%) and 3s (34%) at career-low percentages, but he was exceptionally efficient as a junior and boasts a career 90% free-throw percentage. The key question for Sandfort is how much of his success was a product of coach Fran McCaffery`s offensive system at Iowa. The program has produced four draft picks since 2021, and only No. 4 pick Keegan Murray has developed into a consistent NBA rotation player.

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26. Nolan Traore, PG, Saint Quentin (France)

After starring in last year`s Nike Hoop Summit, Traore opted to play professionally in his native France instead of attending college. He became an immediate standout in the French LNB playoffs and entered the year ranked fifth in the top 100, but his play saw a decline. On the positive side, Traore has the best assist projection among all top 100 players after averaging 5.2 assists per game in just 22.8 minutes. However, his inefficient scoring (43% on 2s and 28% on 3s) caused him to fall out of the top 30 in the stats-only model.

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27. Cedric Coward, SF, Washington State

Although Coward played only six games for Washington State after transferring from Eastern Washington (and under a different coach), the success of NBA Rookie of the Year contender Jaylen Wells, who came from the same program, could boost his draft stock. At Eastern Washington, Coward was a highly efficient scorer, shooting an impressive 72% on 2s and 39% on 3s. He also projects as an above-average rebounder and passer for a small forward.

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28. Will Riley, F/G, Illinois

Named Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year for his high-usage play (24%) off the bench as a freshman, Riley will need to improve his 3-point shooting to succeed as an NBA wing. He hit 33% at Illinois and just 31% in the 2023 EYBL, although he`s been slightly better at the free-throw line (72% in college).

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29. Thomas Sorber, C Georgetown

Remarkably, no Georgetown player has been drafted since Otto Porter Jr. in 2013. Sorber is poised to end that streak if he remains in the draft after averaging 14.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game as a freshman. While those numbers are strong, the standard for center production at the NCAA level is very high, which works against fellow freshman Derik Queen of Maryland, for instance. By contrast to Queen, who doesn`t make my top 30 despite being 10th in the top 100, Sorber was a significantly more effective shot blocker.

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30. Alex Karaban, F, UConn

After starting for UConn`s back-to-back national championship teams, Karaban stayed while the rest of the starting five departed for the NBA. Karaban didn`t make the anticipated leap as a scorer, seeing his accuracy on both 2-pointers (54%) and 3-pointers (35%) slightly decline despite a larger role. However, Karaban did show improved playmaking, nearly doubling his assists to 2.8 per game, and also blocked shots at a career-high rate with Donovan Clingan no longer protecting the paint.