The NBA regular season has concluded, marked by unexpected team performances against betting odds and a surprising major trade that caught even bookmakers off guard.
Here`s a review of the NBA season from a betting perspective:
Oklahoma City Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers: Contrasting Fortunes
The Oklahoma City Thunder emerged as a historically successful team for bettors this NBA season. They exceeded expectations against the spread in 68.3% of their games, achieving the best record in this metric over the past 35 years, according to research. Despite increasing betting lines against them, the Thunder maintained a strong 18-3 record against the spread as the regular season concluded, including an 11-game streak in March and April. Notably, Oklahoma City was rarely considered the underdog, with this status applying to them in only three games, the fewest among all teams.
| Season | Team | ATS Record | Cover Pct | Playoff Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Thunder | 56-26 | 68.3 | ? |
| 2011-12 | Spurs | 43-21-2 | 67.2 | L, Conf Finals |
| 2009-10 | Bucks | 54-28 | 65.9 | L, 1st Round |
| 1994-95 | Jazz | 52-28-2 | 65.0 | L, 1st Round |
| 2007-08 | Celtics | 52-29-1 | 64.2 | Won title |
In contrast to the Thunder`s success, the Philadelphia 76ers disappointed bettors. The Sixers had a 28-54 record against the spread, only covering in 34.1% of their games. Over the last 35 years, only two teams—the 2003-04 Orlando Magic and the 1995-96 Houston Rockets—performed worse against the spread than this season`s 76ers.
| Season | Team | ATS Record | Cover Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-04 | Magic | 27-54-1 | 33.3 |
| 1995-96 | Rockets | 27-53-2 | 33.8 |
| 2024-25 | 76ers | 28-54 | 34.1 |
| 2011-12 | Bobcats | 23-43 | 34.8 |
| 1995-96 | Mavericks | 28-52-2 | 35.0 |
Los Angeles Lakers: A Team of National Interest
The Los Angeles Lakers have consistently drawn significant attention, owing to their rich championship history and star-studded rosters, making them perennially popular in the NBA.
Each season, particularly since LeBron James joined the team, the Lakers have been a favored betting choice. However, this popularity surged in February following the acquisition of Luka Dončić, a highly regarded player.
`If there`s a team that captures America`s team spirit in basketball, it`s the Lakers,` stated Johnny Avello, sportsbook director at DraftKings. `They have fans nationwide and globally. They are consistently popular on our platform, for both weekly games and futures bets.`
He added, `They have attracted substantial betting interest, both before and especially after the trade.`
Both DraftKings and ESPN BET reported that the Lakers attracted more spread bets overall than any other team this season. Interestingly, both also noted that Los Angeles was their most frequently bet money-line underdog throughout the season, often receiving point advantages before Dončić`s arrival.
Adam Landeka, vice president of sportsbook strategy and growth at ESPN BET, commented, `Despite their strong performance in the latter half of the season, the Lakers were often underdogs in the first half, particularly due to injuries. Bettors frequently backed the Lakers as underdogs and were often rewarded, as L.A. achieved an 18-14 ATS record this season.`
Dončić`s addition also made the Lakers a popular pick for championship futures, with major sportsbooks indicating them as a significant liability in the market leading into the playoffs.
Hal Egeland of BetMGM, based in New Jersey, expressed ongoing surprise at the Mavericks` decision to trade their key player to the Lakers. Egeland mentioned receiving around 100 messages on his phone on February 2, the morning after the trade announcement.
`I didn`t initially dismiss it as a hoax, given the widespread discussion,` Egeland said. `My first thought was that some scandal must be emerging. That suspicion proved unfounded, but it was my initial reaction.`
Sportsbooks reacted quickly, suspending NBA Finals odds until they fully understood the implications of the trade. Egeland noted that BetMGM adjusted the Lakers` odds from 40-1 to 18-1 overnight.
Egeland recounted constantly checking social media for reactions, finding a consistent sentiment of disbelief at the Mavericks` rationale.
`I can`t recall such unanimous agreement on any sports-related topic online,` Egeland remarked.
Unexpected Success Stories
Several teams significantly exceeded bookmakers` expectations, rewarding bettors who placed their faith in them this season.
The Portland Trail Blazers were notable, becoming the first NBA team to surpass their preseason win total, according to ESPN BET lines, exceeding 21.5 wins by February 4, in their 51st game, and finishing the season with 36 wins. DraftKings bettors favored them as underdogs on spread wagers more than any other team this season.
Portland achieved 25 outright wins as underdogs, tying with the Chicago Bulls for the league lead in this category this season, and matching two other teams (2018-19 Atlanta Hawks and 1994-95 Dallas Mavericks) for the fourth-most over the past 35 seasons, based on research.
Unlike the Trail Blazers, the Bulls leveraged their late-season improvement, surpassing 28.5 wins by March 17, to secure a play-in tournament spot, though they were ultimately defeated by the Miami Heat. Chicago was the fourth-most-bet team on the spread on ESPN BET throughout the season.
However, one of the most remarkable underdog stories of the season was the Detroit Pistons, who dramatically improved from 14 wins in the 2023-24 season to 44 wins and a playoff berth in 2024-25. The Pistons were listed at +1300 to make the playoffs before the season, according to ESPN BET odds, and were the second team to exceed their win total, passing 25.5 wins by February 7, in their 52nd game. They also had the largest margin over their win total (18.5) in the NBA.
`I believe we even had a prop bet last year asking, `Will the Pistons win nine games?` That`s how challenging things were,` Avello noted. `Their turnaround this year is incredible. For me, it`s probably the biggest surprise in the league.`
Perennial Betting Favorites
Given the Lakers` popularity, it`s not surprising that LeBron James is frequently the most-bet player for prop bets across various sportsbooks.
Similarly, Dončić is consistently among the top five most-bet players for props, maintaining high popularity even before the trade. However, Avello described having two players from the same team so heavily bet on props as `somewhat unusual,` largely attributed to the trade.
Aside from these Lakers players, the most-bet players for props include the league`s prominent stars: Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, all consistently ranking among the most-backed at ESPN BET and DraftKings.
`It`s always the same well-known players,` Avello commented. `Bettors prefer to bet on players known for their consistency and high statistical output…especially over the past five years or so.`