The 2025 NBA play-in tournament starts on Tuesday with two exciting matchups: the Orlando Magic hosting the Atlanta Hawks, and the Golden State Warriors facing off against the Memphis Grizzlies.
Orlando, with a regular-season record of 41-41, are slight favorites at -5.5 points with an over/under of 219.5 against the Hawks, who finished just behind them at 40-42. Their head-to-head season series was evenly split.
In the other game, the Warriors and Grizzlies both concluded the season with identical 48-34 records. The Warriors are favored by -7.5 points with an over/under of 227.5. Golden State won their season series 3-1, although Memphis did achieve a significant 51-point victory in December.
Here are some noteworthy bets for Tuesday`s games:
Tuesday`s Best Bets
Paolo Banchero Over 30.5 Points (-110)
Banchero has consistently exceeded this point total in all three regular-season games against the Hawks. Atlanta`s defense ranks among the league`s worst against power forwards, and they lack a suitable defender to contain Banchero. He has surpassed 30.5 points in 11 of his last 20 games where he played at least 34 minutes.
Onyeka Okongwu Under 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-105)
The Orlando Magic boast the NBA`s top defensive rating over their last 10 games. While Okongwu had a strong performance against Orlando on April 8th, he has stayed under this combined points and rebounds line in 10 of his past 20 games, including both prior matchups against the Magic this season. Orlando has effectively limited opposing centers` point and rebound production in recent games. Given Orlando`s slow pace and strong defense, Tuesday`s game is not ideal for Okongwu to excel.
Vince Williams Jr. Under 12.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-125)
Williams has remained below this combined stat line in seven of his last 10 games, averaging only 18 minutes of play during that stretch. Although he exceeded it in the regular-season finale against Dallas, that game saw limited minutes for key Grizzlies players. More significantly, Williams has gone under this number in nine out of 12 games played alongside Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. in the lineup. He now faces a Warriors team that ranks fourth in defensive rating over the last 10 games.
Zach Edey Over 11.5 Rebounds (-130)
Edey seems to be peaking at the right time for the Grizzlies, having surpassed this rebound mark in four of his last five games. He has averaged 25.6 rebound chances in just over 30 minutes per game. The Warriors have struggled against centers throughout the season, allowing the sixth-most rebounds per game to the position. Furthermore, six of the last eight centers they have faced have exceeded their rebound prop bets.
Game Projections and Injury Updates
Game analysis based on advanced metrics. Injury information sourced from publicly available reports.
Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic
7:30 PM ET
Point Spread: Hawks +5.5 (-115) | Magic -5.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Hawks +170 | Magic -200
Total Points: 219.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Projected Outcome: Magic by 4.9 points, 66% win probability, 213.3 total points projected.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Trae Young (Questionable – Achilles), Clint Capela (Out – Hand), Larry Nance Jr. (Out – Knee), Jalen Johnson (Out – Shoulder), Kobe Bufkin (Out – Shoulder)
Magic: Jalen Suggs (Out – Knee), Moritz Wagner (Out – Knee)
Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors
10:00 PM ET
Point Spread: Grizzlies +7.5 (-115) | Warriors -7.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Grizzlies +250 | Warriors -315
Total Points: 227.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Projected Outcome: Warriors by 3.5 points, 62% win probability, 230.1 total points projected.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke (Out – Knee), Jaylen Wells (Out – Wrist)
Warriors: No injuries reported