Francis Ngannou is set to make his return to mixed martial arts after a hiatus of over 20 months. He will face Philipe Lins on May 16 at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, as part of the co-main event for MVP MMA’s showcase on Netflix. Bookmakers have established “The Predator” as a significant favorite heading into this heavyweight clash. His odds have shifted from -1408 in late March to -1400 by mid-May.
Philipe Lins, a 40-year-old Brazilian fighter, is positioned as the underdog, with odds ranging from +750 to +850 on various sports betting platforms. Lins, who won the PFL heavyweight tournament in 2018, last competed in March 2024, securing a unanimous decision victory over Ion Cutelaba. He boasts an 18-5 professional record, with 13 of his wins coming by way of stoppage. However, his defensive capabilities against knockouts have been a concern, as four of his five career losses were by knockout. Notably, he was finished in the first round by Tanner Boser in 2020. While Lins had a 4-0 record at light heavyweight recently, he experienced two consecutive losses in heavyweight bouts in the UFC.
The betting markets strongly indicate a preference for Ngannou to win by an early finish. Odds suggest a first-round victory for Ngannou is highly probable, with him being priced at 1/5 to end the fight between rounds one and three. Prop bets for a knockout victory carry approximately an 8% probability when considering all potential outcomes. Conversely, Lins is listed at 12/1 odds to achieve an upset within three rounds, and his outright win odds of +750 to +850 imply about a 10.5% chance of him pulling off the upset.
Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins: A Look at the Odds and Fighter Analysis
While Lins is acknowledged as a competent striker with adequate grappling skills, a significant disparity emerges when considering Ngannou’s history against top-tier competition. Ngannou has achieved stoppages against many fighters considered among the best in the sport. In contrast, Lins’ record of four knockout losses highlights his susceptibility to powerful strikers. Both fighters face the challenge of a two-year layoff, but Ngannou’s decisive victory over Ferreira carries more weight than Lins’ win against a less highly-ranked opponent.
Ngannou is entering this fight on the back of a knockout win against Renan Ferreira in October 2024 under the PFL banner. This marked his return to MMA after his excursions into professional boxing, where he faced Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. The Cameroonian heavyweight has a career stoppage rate of 72%, having finished 13 of his 18 wins by knockout or TKO. His last five victories have all been knockouts, and eight of his past ten wins concluded within the first two minutes of the opening round. During his tenure in the UFC, Ngannou achieved a 12-1 record in knockout victories, ultimately capturing the heavyweight championship by defeating Stipe Miocic in just 52 seconds of the second round.