While the NBA playoffs are set to advance to the second round starting Sunday, the focus first shifts to two crucial Game 7 matchups scheduled for this weekend. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves quickly dispatched their first-round competition. However, the other two series in the Western Conference have been far more contested in the opening round of the NBA playoffs.
The LA Clippers pushed their series against the Denver Nuggets to a decisive Game 7 with a 111-105 win on Thursday. However, they were unable to replicate their success on the road Saturday, as Denver secured a comfortable 120-101 victory to advance and face the Thunder.
Trailing 3-1 earlier in the week, the Houston Rockets fought off elimination, securing a 115-107 road win against Golden State on Friday night. Now tied, the teams will clash in a winner-take-all Game 7 on Sunday for the right to advance and play the Timberwolves in the second round.
With Denver having secured their spot, the key question heading into Sunday`s crucial matchup is: what are the pivotal factors for the remaining Game 7, and what must each team do to advance to the next round? Here, our NBA experts weigh in on the major questions surrounding this decisive game.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets: Game 7 Preview
Golden State`s Path to Victory
Golden State holds a significant edge in Game 7 experience. Veterans like Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have participated in five career Game 7s, while Jimmy Butler has four under his belt. Coach Steve Kerr has also guided his teams through four such contests.
For the Warriors to succeed, they must effectively counter Houston`s zone defense and create open looks for Curry. Despite scoring 29 points in Game 6, Curry managed only 13 in the second half, shooting 4-for-13. Curry and Green hold a 3-2 record together in Game 7s, notably winning decisively in Sacramento in 2023 behind Curry`s explosive 50-point performance. According to ESPN Research, Curry`s career average of 32.6 points in Game 7s ranks fourth in NBA history, trailing only Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan.
While Butler will undoubtedly aim for another memorable `Playoff Jimmy` performance, the Warriors need more offensive contributions beyond Curry and Butler. A third scoring threat is essential, whether it comes from Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, or timely outside shooting from Moses Moody to break down the zone. Draymond Green`s defense, reminiscent of his Defensive Player of the Year form (he finished third in voting this season), will also be critical. Golden State must minimize turnovers and contain Fred VanVleet. Additionally, a wildcard could prove beneficial. Kerr has indicated “everything is on the table” for Game 7, potentially including increased playing time for Jonathan Kuminga.
Houston`s Strategy for Game 7
Coach Ime Udoka continues to emphasize consistency, disciplined play, and executing fundamental actions repeatedly – a philosophy unchanged for this crucial game. Houston has found success in troubling Golden State by employing lineups featuring two big men. Udoka noted these lineups often incorporate zone elements `out of necessity` to better defend certain matchups.
Notably, the Rockets have even utilized zone defense when the sharpshooting Stephen Curry is on the floor. Udoka explained, “Our activity up top is great, and the principles with obviously Curry and recognizing where he is in the zone, it takes a lot of communication. And if you stay with him, we fill the spots behind it.”
Golden State will undoubtedly seek ways in Game 7 to punish Houston`s zone schemes, especially when Curry is on the court. Houston must continue to leverage its physicality against the older, potentially fatigued Warriors squad, while maintaining their advantage in paint scoring and securing second-chance points. Udoka frequently highlights Houston`s core principle of converting defense into offense, which fuels their fast-break opportunities. The Rockets generated 22 points from 17 Golden State turnovers in Game 6. Players such as Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, and Jalen Green will be key in helping the Rockets accumulate fast-break points.
Series Recap: How the Teams Reached Game 7
Golden State took the opening game in Houston, securing a physical victory that Steve Kerr described as reminiscent of a 1990s playoff battle due to its intensity and defensive focus. Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 31 points, while Jimmy Butler showcased his `Playoff Jimmy` form for Houston with 25 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and five steals. However, Houston responded decisively in Game 2 with a commanding 109-94 win, fueled by Jalen Green`s 38 points. Early in that game, Butler suffered a significant glute contusion after being undercut by Amen Thompson while rebounding, limiting him to only eight minutes.
Butler missed Game 3 due to the injury, but the Warriors grinded out a 104-93 home win, largely thanks to Curry`s 36 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds. Golden State then appeared to take a dominant 3-1 series lead in Game 4. Butler delivered a strong performance with 27 points, including 14 in the fourth quarter, and secured a crucial rebound after Draymond Green contested Alperen Sengun`s shot with 6.4 seconds remaining.
However, the Rockets delivered a dominant performance in Game 5, leading by as much as 31 points early in the third quarter before Kerr opted to remove his starters with over five minutes left in the period. In Game 6, Golden State failed to close out the series at home, struggling offensively, missing 14 of their first 15 shots in the fourth quarter, allowing Houston to go on a decisive 20-5 run. Houston`s zone defense has been particularly effective, disrupting Golden State`s offense and neutralizing Curry at times, ultimately forcing this Game 7.
Crucial Factors for the Decisive Game
A hallmark of this series has been Houston`s effective deployment of lineups featuring both Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun. Despite being outscored significantly when these two were on the court together in Game 4, Golden State still managed to win. In their dominant Game 5 victory, Udoka utilized the pairing less but still saw a positive impact (+8 in 13 minutes).
The fourth quarter of Game 6 provided the biggest test yet for the Adams-Sengun pairing, as they shared the court for nearly the entire period before both coaches emptied their benches. The Rockets` double-big lineup was a plus-nine during this stretch. Udoka also showed confidence, not hesitating when Steve Kerr intentionally fouled Adams – a change from Game 4 when Adams was briefly subbed out. Adams converted 9 of 16 free throws resulting from intentional fouls, and Sengun managed to grab two offensive rebounds off Adams` misses. This strategy yielded 13 points on eight possessions, resulting in an impressive 162.5 offensive rating for that specific scenario.
Part of the challenge for the Warriors lies in how Houston has been able to integrate Adams, who is blocking shots at a career-high rate in this series, and Sengun into a flexible defense that consistently keeps a defender near Stephen Curry. Despite this, Curry still managed 29 points and hit six three-pointers in Game 6, although he shot just 9-of-23 overall and committed five turnovers.
While Udoka has successfully identified and utilized effective new lineup combinations, the Warriors` coaching staff seems to be grappling with finding their optimal five-man unit. Kerr started Gary Payton II in Game 6, aiming to improve point-of-attack defense on VanVleet. However, Payton doesn`t pose the same three-point shooting threat as Brandin Podziemski, allowing Houston`s defense different coverage options. Excluding Curry, Golden State`s other four starters combined to shoot just 3-of-18 from beyond the arc in that game, highlighting their offensive struggles outside of their primary star.