The opening days of the NBA`s conference semifinals presented a scenario unprecedented in league history. For the first time ever, road teams secured victories in all four Game 1 matchups. This surprising trend continued in the Eastern Conference, where the visiting teams also took both Game 2s, leaving the top two seeds in difficult positions.
This outcome is particularly remarkable considering the regular-season dominance of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics. Both teams achieved over 60 wins, averaging a substantial 12 more victories than their lower-seeded opponents, the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks, respectively.
As the Eastern Conference series pause before resuming, with Indiana and New York heading home with commanding 2-0 leads, it`s crucial to examine what factors have contributed to the struggles of the favorites and what this suggests about the likelihood of Boston and Cleveland recovering to meet in an Eastern Conference Finals that seemed almost certain just a week ago.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers: Mitchell Needs Support Quickly
Similar to three of the four road victories in Game 1 across the league, Indiana`s initial win against Cleveland was heavily influenced by exceptional 3-point shooting. The Pacers connected on 19 of 36 attempts (53%) from beyond the arc, while the Cavaliers, who finished the regular season ranked second in 3-point percentage, made just 9 of 38 shots (24%). Unlike some other series openers, rest wasn`t a major factor, as both teams finished their first-round series with similar timing.
The shooting disparity lessened somewhat in Game 2, with the Pacers shooting 39% from deep compared to the Cavaliers` 28%. Despite missing starting guard Darius Garland, newly named Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, and key reserve De`Andre Hunter, Cleveland seemed poised to tie the series. They held a 17-point lead late in the third quarter and were still up by seven points before the end of the game saw critical errors. The final minute was marked by Cavaliers turnovers and two crucial Indiana offensive rebounds off missed free throws, setting the stage for Tyrese Haliburton`s game-winning play.
However, Indiana`s 2-0 lead, while significant, doesn`t guarantee victory. Since 2021, three out of four higher-seeded teams trailing 0-2 at home managed to push the series to a Game 7, although two of those teams ultimately lost the deciding game on their home court (the Celtics in the 2023 conference finals and the Nuggets last year). This history provides a glimmer of hope for Cleveland.
Naturally, being down 0-2 means Friday`s Game 3 is a must-win for Cleveland, bringing their injury situation into sharp focus. Mobley and Hunter sustained their injuries in the fourth quarter of Game 1, while Garland has been sidelined for the last four games, dating back to the first round.
If Donovan Mitchell can replicate his exceptional performance from the first 47 minutes of Game 2, Cleveland might win without their injured players. But Mobley`s potential return is particularly vital. Although Indiana`s scoring inside the arc decreased slightly in Game 2, they still scored 50 points in the paint, which is six more than Cleveland has allowed in any other playoff game this year, with 26 of those coming in the fourth quarter alone.
Hunter`s absence is poorly timed, as he would be the logical player to step into Mobley`s role. Without Hunter, the Cavaliers had only two players taller than 6-foot-5 available: starting center Jarrett Allen and temporary power forward Dean Wade. This left Cleveland`s second unit significantly undersized.
While the Cavaliers have demonstrated they can win without Garland, his return would alleviate some of the offensive pressure on Mitchell. Mitchell`s performance in Game 2 involved an unusually high usage rate, meaning over half of Cleveland`s offensive plays with him on the court ended with him taking a shot, turning the ball over, or going to the free-throw line. Given this immense responsibility, it`s understandable that Mitchell showed signs of fatigue late in the game.
From a strategic standpoint, the Pacers` two initial wins don`t necessarily indicate they are fundamentally better than a healthy Cavaliers team on a neutral court. However, Indiana now only needs to win two more games out of the remaining five, with three of those scheduled to be played at home. The timeline for Cleveland`s key players to regain full health remains uncertain. Consequently, the Pacers are now the clear favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Celtics vs. Knicks: The Shooting Woes Continue
The Celtics, at least, have prior experience with an 0-2 home deficit, having faced this situation against the Miami Heat in 2023. In that series, they staged a remarkable comeback to force a Game 7 before ultimately losing at home. In fact, this marks the fourth time an Al Horford-era Celtics team has fallen behind 0-2 at home; it happened twice in 2017 (resulting in a comeback win against Chicago and a loss against Cleveland).
This pattern is perhaps not entirely surprising given Boston`s performance trends. Over the past four postseasons, including their 2022 Finals loss and their 2024 championship run, Boston has displayed a remarkable disparity in their home and road playoff records. They are 22-9 (.710 winning percentage) in road playoff games during this period, securing at least one road win in all 12 series played thus far. No other NBA team has a road playoff record more than three games above .500 in that same timeframe.
In contrast, Boston holds a more modest 23-16 record at home during the last four postseasons. Only the Miami Heat have accumulated more double-digit home losses in that span, though it`s worth noting the Celtics have played significantly more playoff games than any other team over the past four years.
Given this context, Boston`s Game 1 loss at home to a Knicks team they swept 4-0 in the regular season might have initially seemed like a minor setback. Despite missing a playoff-record 45 3-point attempts, the fact that they even managed to force overtime could be viewed as somewhat positive.
However, defying the expectation of a bounce-back, the poor outside shooting performance carried over into Game 2. Boston attempted fewer 3-pointers (40 out of 94 total shots, compared to 60 of 97 in Game 1) but again made them at a disappointing 25% clip. The Celtics are now only the second team in the last six years to shoot 25% or worse from three-point range in the first two games of a playoff series, joining the 2021 Atlanta Hawks in their Eastern Conference Finals defeat.
To some extent, the emphasis on Boston`s missed 3-pointers might be slightly exaggerated simply because they are tracked separately. The Celtics also shot even worse (8-of-33, 24%) on 2-point attempts taken outside the restricted area, without the added benefit of three points if they had gone in.
Many of these misses came from Jayson Tatum, who missed all five of his non-paint 2-point attempts. Both Tatum and Jaylen Brown missed all five of their combined non-paint 2s in the fourth quarter as Boston seemed to resort to iso-heavy play (“hero ball”) while New York was closing the gap. In the final period, only eight of the Celtics` 24 shots were assisted opportunities.
Despite a common perception that Boston struggles in close contests, the Celtics actually ranked third in the NBA for offensive rating in clutch situations (defined as the score being within five points in the final five minutes or overtime) during the recent season. Furthermore, their impressive plus-47 net rating in the clutch during their 2024 championship run was the best among all teams.
Because the Celtics are relatively healthy – aside from Kristaps Porzingis dealing with an ongoing illness – and have effectively controlled the first three quarters of both games, holding a combined plus-21 differential in that span, they find themselves in perhaps as favorable a position as a team trailing 0-2 at home can be. Amazingly, despite the deficit, Boston still holds the best odds to win the Eastern Conference according to some sportsbooks.
Nevertheless, the defending champions head to New York needing to win at least two games on the road, lacking momentum and with very little margin for error.