NBA Free Agency 2025: New Western Conference Tiers After Flurry of Moves

While the Eastern Conference`s 2025-26 outlook appears uncertain due to numerous star injuries, the Western Conference presents a clearer picture. Here, a host of aspiring teams must contend with the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder dominated the West last season, winning the conference by a record 16 games, and their roster is sustainably built for a repeat performance.

But which rivals are best positioned to challenge Oklahoma City? Which experienced teams hope to maintain their competitive edge for another deep playoff run? And which young squads are poised for a rapid ascent in the standings?

To provide a comprehensive overview and analyze the current state of the 2025-26 Western Conference field, we have categorized all 15 teams into five distinct tiers. Tomorrow, we will conduct a similar assessment for the East, but for now, let`s focus on the West, beginning with the clear frontrunner having a strong opportunity to make history.

Tier 1: The Clear-Cut Favorite

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have made minimal external additions through trades or free agency, bringing in only 2024 first-round pick Nikola Topic. But why would they need significant changes? The defending champions already boast the league`s deepest rotation. They are also expected to improve further in 2025-26, as only Alex Caruso (31) and Kenrich Williams (30) are over 27, and Chet Holmgren was limited to just 32 games last season due to injury.

Is it possible for them to get even better after a 68-win regular season, the best point differential in NBA history, and a title? Yes, it`s not only possible but quite realistic. As they aim to become the first back-to-back champions since the Durant-led Warriors, potentially ending a record-long drought without a repeat winner, the Thunder stand in a category of their own.

Tier 2: Ready to Deny a Repeat Champion

Houston Rockets

The Rockets were somewhat deceptive in 2024-25; they secured the No. 2 seed in the West through relentless regular-season effort but lacked the star power for a deep playoff run, resulting in a first-round exit against Golden State. However, after acquiring Kevin Durant via trade and signing Dorian Finney-Smith, alongside increased roles for Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Reed Sheppard, the Rockets now have a complete team with the necessary depth and star power to challenge the Thunder.

While Houston still doesn`t possess the top-end talent of the champions, they also don`t have any significant weaknesses. Don`t be surprised if the Rockets again finish as the No. 2 seed, this time appearing much more prepared for the postseason. This “tiger” now looks quite real.

Denver Nuggets

The fundamental structure of the Nuggets remains consistent: Nikola Jokic is the centerpiece, supported by Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. However, Denver has experienced recent changes, including a new coach, a new front office, and a significantly improved bench after adding Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and potentially Jonas Valanciunas (if he doesn`t play overseas). Cameron Johnson also steps into Michael Porter Jr.`s starting role as a key shooter after an offseason team change.

Had it not been for an unexpected barrage of three-pointers from Luguentz Dort, the Nuggets were in a position to potentially upset the Thunder in the second round last spring. They have since reloaded their roster for another opportunity next season.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards` continued development will be the primary factor in determining whether Minnesota can reach the conference finals for a third consecutive season and ideally advance further this time. However, much also depends on the Timberwolves` guard play beyond Edwards. With Nickeil Alexander-Walker having departed for Atlanta, Minnesota`s backcourt rotation now includes Mike Conley, who will be 38 before the season starts; the inconsistent Donte DiVincenzo; and second-year players Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr., who combined for just 8.8 points per game across 81 contests in their rookie season.

There is potential, but also uncertainty. The Timberwolves aimed to maintain their position by re-signing Julius Randle and Naz Reid but haven`t demonstrably *improved*. Meanwhile, other teams in this tier made undeniable upgrades in pursuit of catching the Thunder and may have surpassed Minnesota in the process.

Tier 3: The Old Guard

LA Clippers

The Clippers could arguably belong in a higher tier. From the point Kawhi Leonard first played last season (Jan. 4) onwards, the Clippers ranked second in the West with a plus-7.2 net rating. They even outscored Denver over their seven-game first-round series loss, but two narrow two-point defeats and a poor Game 7 performance doomed their dark-horse contender hopes.

Positive news for the Clippers includes the addition of Brook Lopez from Milwaukee, a solid acquisition addressing their backup center need behind Ivica Zubac. Every key player from the 2024-25 team, except Norman Powell (traded for John Collins), returns for 2025-26. The concern lies in the age of key players like Leonard, James Harden, Lopez, Nicolas Batum, Kris Dunn, and Bogdan Bogdanovic, all in their 30s, raising questions about whether their window of opportunity may have closed last season.

Los Angeles Lakers

Any team featuring Luka Doncic or LeBron James, let alone both, automatically qualifies as a contender. But does the Lakers` supporting cast provide sufficient strength? Significant challenges remain: Can lineups with Doncic, James, and Austin Reaves hold their own defensively? Will new starting center Deandre Ayton, recently bought out, play with more intensity and reverse his recent decline? Can Jake LaRavia effectively replace Dorian Finney-Smith? Is there adequate shooting on this roster?

Expect the Lakers to remain a source of drama until they can definitively answer these lingering questions.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have had a remarkably quiet offseason and appear to be in a holding pattern while awaiting Al Horford`s free agency decision and the resolution of Jonathan Kuminga`s restricted free agency. Currently, their position is similar to where they ended last season: a very capable team, especially with Jimmy Butler III integrated, but not a dominant force. Depending on future offseason moves, they could potentially move up a tier – recalling they might have reached the conference finals last season if Stephen Curry hadn`t been injured in Game 1 of the second round – but they haven`t yet made the necessary moves to warrant a higher ranking.

Dallas Mavericks

Cooper Flagg, the 18-year-old No. 1 overall pick, is a significant reason for optimism regarding the Mavericks and certainly doesn`t fit the “old guard” label. However, a team anchored by Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving (once he recovers from a torn ACL), featuring Klay Thompson and D`Angelo Russell in the backcourt, still largely fits this designation.

The fundamental question surrounding the Mavericks is whether they have enough playmaking. Can Flagg handle point-forward duties as a rookie? Will the streaky Russell find consistency? Most crucially, will Irving return at full strength or require another year to regain his form?

Tier 4: Young and Hungry

Memphis Grizzlies

The trade of Desmond Bane appears to have been more of a specific adjustment than the start of a complete rebuild. Memphis followed that surprising move by signing Ty Jerome, trading up for Cedric Coward (a potential Bane replacement), and extending both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama. The roster still possesses considerable depth and talent.

However, without Bane, the majority of that talent is now concentrated at point guard and center. To avoid regression, the Grizzlies require either Coward to perform well as a rookie, Jaylen Wells to make a significant leap in his second season, or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to bounce back after a disappointing season in Orlando.

San Antonio Spurs

De`Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama shared the court for only five games last season, in the brief period between Fox`s trade to San Antonio and Wembanyama`s diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis, which prematurely ended his impressive second year. Adding No. 2 pick Dylan Harper and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, it`s evident the Spurs still have a considerable amount of self-discovery ahead.

Likely, this will be a transition season for San Antonio as they work to establish their identity and how their players integrate. After securing the No. 2 pick, the Spurs notably avoided pursuing win-now moves like trading for Kevin Durant. However, they also possess significant potential for rapid improvement in 2025-26, largely thanks to Wemby, who is favored to win Defensive Player of the Year and earn an All-NBA selection.

Portland Trail Blazers

Last season, the Trail Blazers finished the first half with a 13-28 record but improved to 23-18 in the second half, as wings Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara emerged as effective two-way players. By trading Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday and elevating Donovan Clingan to a starting role (a move that included buying out Ayton), Portland solidified and enhanced its defensive focus this summer.

It remains uncertain whether the Simons-less Blazers possess enough offensive firepower to reach the play-in tournament, and they will depend on Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe showing continued development in the backcourt. But for a team with the second-longest playoff drought in the West (only the Spurs` is longer), things are looking more promising in Portland.

Tier 5: What`s the Plan?

Sacramento Kings

In 1,121 possessions last season with Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine sharing the court, the Kings posted an offensive rating of 117.4, according to Cleaning the Glass. This is a respectable figure, ranking in the 72nd percentile leaguewide. However, during those same possessions, the Kings` defensive rating was 120.9, placing them in the 11th percentile. The Kings have star power and are often entertaining, but they lack a clear path to consistently winning games. They might compete for a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference, but they aren`t competitive enough in the West.

Phoenix Suns

“What`s the plan?” has been a valid question regarding Phoenix for some time, and this offseason has provided little clarity. The Suns received a less-than-ideal return for trading Kevin Durant, while simultaneously adding two centers on draft night and still lacking natural point guards or power forwards in their projected rotation. Devin Booker and Jalen Green could form a challenging fit as a starting backcourt.

Expect the Suns, under owner Mat Ishbia, to continue prioritizing current competitiveness over future assets. However, don`t anticipate a significant number of wins.

New Orleans Pelicans

One might assume the Pelicans would place themselves in a different tier, given their aggressive approach this offseason, particularly trading an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to move up 10 spots in the 2025 draft. There is some basis for optimism – mainly if they can enjoy better health after Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, and Herbert Jones combined for just 103 games last season.

However, with CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram gone and Dejounte Murray sidelined by a torn Achilles, there is also significant uncertainty in New Orleans, lacking a clear long-term strategy for building a winning roster. Even in the short term, the Pelicans weren`t dominant in the rare instances they were healthy last season, finishing 10-20 when Williamson played, with a minus-4.3 net rating when Williamson and Murphy were on the court together.

Utah Jazz

On one hand, Lauri Markkanen remains in Utah. The team sought to acquire Jusuf Nurkic. And new president of basketball operations Austin Ainge stated in his introductory press conference that tanking “You won`t see that this year.”

Yet, conversely, Utah shed John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, and Collin Sexton this summer for minimal returns; drafted an 18-year-old project in Ace Bailey; and is projected to field the league`s youngest backcourt. The Jazz could attempt to avoid tanking and still lose 60-plus games this season, considering their roster deficiencies and the overall strength of the rest of the Western Conference.