The Toronto Maple Leafs are heading into the final day of the regular season with a clear understanding of their standing in the 2026 NHL Draft lottery. Their recent performance has placed them among the top non-playoff teams, though not at the very bottom of the league standings.
This position grants Toronto a realistic, albeit not dominant, opportunity to secure the first overall pick in the upcoming draft. It also keeps their highly anticipated top-five protected first-round selection firmly in the spotlight for fans, management, and draft analysts.
NHL Lottery Standings at the Top
The Vancouver Canucks have already secured the best odds for the first overall selection, concluding a season where they fully committed to a rebuild. Following them, Chicago is set to have the second-best odds, marking their fourth consecutive year with a top-four pick. The New York Rangers and Calgary Flames are next in line, with both teams’ draft positions likely to fluctuate only slightly on the final day.
Toronto’s Specific Odds and Potential Range
Entering the final day, Toronto holds the fifth-best odds for the first overall pick. This reflects a season that fell short of pre-season expectations but also shields them from a significant drop in the draft order. While the Maple Leafs can no longer improve their position into the top three based on standings alone, they are also protected from falling into the middle of the pack before the lottery results are announced.
Current projections show Vancouver leading the lottery field with a 25.5% chance at the top pick, followed by Chicago at 13.5%, the Rangers at 11.5%, and the Flames at 9.5%. Toronto’s fifth-place standing gives them an 8.5% chance at the first overall selection, keeping them in contention despite not being among the top favorites.
These projections also indicate a slight flattening of odds as the draft order progresses. Toronto’s odds for the second overall pick are in the mid-single digits, only slightly behind Calgary and not drastically lower than the teams ahead of them. The NHL’s current lottery structure limits how much a team can advance or fall, creating a narrow band of potential outcomes for teams in Toronto’s tier.
Most Probable Outcomes for the Maple Leafs
From a pure probability standpoint, the most likely outcome for the Maple Leafs is a draft selection close to their current projected slot. While the lottery always introduces an element of unpredictability, the potential upward movement is not limitless. With the Canucks and Blackhawks holding the top two odds, and the Rangers and Flames positioned just ahead, Toronto’s most realistic range extends from the first overall pick in a best-case scenario to the latter half of the top ten if the lottery draw is unfavorable.
A more significant factor for Toronto is the condition attached to their 2026 first-round pick. The Maple Leafs traded this pick to Boston as part of the package for Brandon Carlo, with a crucial top-five protection clause. If Toronto’s pick lands within the top five after the lottery, they retain it and will instead owe Boston an unprotected first-round pick in a future year. If the pick falls to sixth or lower, the Bruins will receive this year’s selection, and the Leafs will keep their 2027 first-round pick.
Impact of the Conditional Pick
This protection clause significantly influences how the final day of the season and the subsequent lottery will be viewed in Toronto. As long as they maintain the fifth-best odds, the Maple Leafs are in a position where a modest lottery gain allows them to keep their valuable draft asset, while a slight slide sends it to Boston. The difference between securing the fourth, fifth, or sixth pick is not substantial in terms of raw percentages, but it carries immense weight regarding which franchise ultimately makes the selection.
Surrounding Toronto, the Seattle Kraken, Winnipeg Jets, and Florida Panthers represent the next tier of non-playoff teams. Seattle’s current position places them just behind Toronto in terms of odds for the first overall pick, while Winnipeg and Florida are slightly further back. These clubs may see minor adjustments in their draft positioning on the final day, but none can leap into Toronto’s specific protected range without a significant dose of lottery luck.
What Changes on the Final Day
Conversely, the Maple Leafs have very little room for movement in the standings on the final night of the regular season. Even a win or loss in their season finale is unlikely to drastically alter their pre-lottery position, given the current gaps to the teams above and below them. The true drama will unfold later, during the lottery draw, when the exact pick number is revealed and it becomes clear whether Toronto or Boston will be the team selecting on draft night.
For Maple Leafs fans, this creates a peculiar balance heading into the final day. While the season did not deliver the anticipated playoff run, it has set the stage for a draft scenario where a top-five pick remains a distinct possibility. The Leafs may not possess the highest odds, but they will be at the center of one of the league’s most closely watched conditional pick narratives when the lottery balls eventually drop.
