Key Observations from the Opening Week of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

The first week of the 2025 NBA playoffs has concluded, offering several compelling series and notable outcomes. In the Western Conference, the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder advanced smoothly, sweeping the 8th seed Memphis Grizzlies.

Across the Eastern Conference, the leading four seeds appear well-positioned to reach the second round. The top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers are nearing a sweep against the 8th seed Miami Heat. Similarly, the Boston Celtics (2nd seed) and New York Knicks (3rd seed) aim to close out their series against the Orlando Magic (7th seed) and Detroit Pistons (6th seed), respectively.

The 5th seed Milwaukee Bucks face a difficult task in extending their series against the 4th seed Indiana Pacers, particularly after the unfortunate news of Damian Lillard suffering a torn Achilles tendon.

The Western Conference has seen more tightly contested battles. The 4th seed Denver Nuggets and 5th seed LA Clippers are engaged in a back-and-forth series, highlighted by an overtime opener and a memorable game-winning dunk by Aaron Gordon. The status of the 7th seed Golden State Warriors remains uncertain while they await news on Jimmy Butler III`s pelvis injury. Additionally, the 3rd seed Los Angeles Lakers need to rebound after falling behind 3-1 to the 6th seed Minnesota Timberwolves following a tough loss on Sunday.

The initial week delivered numerous superstar highlights and several tense fourth-quarter finishes. Our NBA analysts share their key observations from the first seven days and discuss what to keep an eye on moving forward.

The Bucks` Outlook After Damian Lillard`s Injury

Not only do the Bucks trail the Pacers 3-1 with potentially two or three remaining games in Indianapolis, but they also now know they will be without Damian Lillard for the rest of these playoffs and potentially longer due to a torn Achilles tendon.

Coach Doc Rivers` immediate priority for Game 5 should be identifying a lineup capable of generating defensive stops. The Pacers have been highly efficient offensively in their wins, scoring over 120 points per 100 possessions. One potential adjustment could involve starting Ryan Rollins, who replaced Lillard effectively during the Bucks` season-ending winning streak, alongside Kevin Porter Jr. and Gary Trent Jr., supporting Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez in the frontcourt.

Kevin Porter Jr. looms large in offsetting Lillard`s lost scoring production. He averaged 15.3 PPG over the final 12 games he played in the regular season, shooting efficiently (57% on two-pointers and 38% on three-pointers) and contributing 5.0 APG as a secondary ball-handler. Looking ahead to the offseason, Lillard`s injury complicates Milwaukee`s strategic planning. The Bucks have limited avenues to create salary cap space and will face luxury tax implications if Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis exercise their player options and the team re-signs Lopez, who is an unrestricted free agent. Porter Jr. is likely to decline his player option for the veteran`s minimum ($2.5 million).

With only non-Bird rights for Porter Jr., the Bucks will likely have to decide between using their midlevel exception to bring him back or using it to add a point guard to cover for Lillard. A significant question mark is whether Antetokounmpo feels Milwaukee can realistically contend for a championship. If the Bucks experience a third consecutive first-round exit and enter the 2025-26 season with uncertainty surrounding Lillard`s return ability, it`s challenging to view them as title contenders.

Is the Eastern Conference Finals Shaping Up as Cavaliers vs. Celtics?

It would be a mistake to overlook the Indiana Pacers, who also hold a 3-1 lead against a short-handed Milwaukee team. Indiana finished the regular season strong with a 14-4 record, and Tyrese Haliburton has appeared healthy, carrying that form into the postseason. The Pacers have the capability to match Cleveland`s size and can also effectively spread the floor. While the Celtics are undoubtedly favored in a potential series against the Knicks, having swept them 4-0 in the regular season, the Cavaliers remain the favorite in their next-round matchup. Cleveland has played their best basketball in recent weeks against Miami, but they will certainly approach a potential series with Indiana with respect.

Which Eastern Conference Team Needs to Make the Most Adjustments Mid-Series?

The Detroit Pistons have shown flashes against the Knicks where their performance could have potentially put them ahead 3-1. However, their youth and poor decision-making have repeatedly cost them, leading to their current 3-1 deficit. A major factor in the close Game 4 loss was 19 turnovers, mirroring their struggles with turnovers in Game 1. These lost possessions are crucial, especially considering the Pistons lack a strong offensive rebounder like Isaiah Stewart and have experienced inconsistent shooting from deep (35.2% from three-point range). Detroit has yet to take more shots than New York in any game this series, which is not a recipe for success. Giving Dennis Schroder a larger role, perhaps earlier in games, alongside Cade Cunningham, could help Detroit improve their ball security.

What Steps Do the Warriors Need to Take to Win Game 4 and Return Home Up 3-1?

The return of Jimmy Butler would provide a massive boost for Golden State. Butler is listed as questionable after sustaining a deep gluteal muscle contusion in the first quarter of Game 2, having had five days for recovery.

Even if the Warriors must play a second full game without “Playoff Jimmy,” they have a clear blueprint for victory based on their 104-93 win in Game 3.

Stephen Curry will need to carry the offensive load, as he did in Game 3 with 36 points (including 25 in the second and third quarters), nine assists, and seven rebounds. However, he also received timely support from Buddy Hield, who spaced the floor with 17 points and five three-pointers, and Gary Payton II, who added 16 points while Houston focused defensive attention on Curry.

Defensively, Golden State must concentrate on limiting Jalen Green`s effectiveness. In the Rockets` two losses, Green scored only seven and nine points, and Houston struggled to find alternative scoring options.

What is the Offseason Strategy for the Grizzlies After a First-Round Sweep and Coaching Change?

Memphis`s initial priority should be securing their core players for the future by signing Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama to contract extensions. Following this, they need to choose a strategic direction and commit to it. Over the past few seasons, they have experimented with different offensive philosophies under three distinct coaches, leading to a sense of confusion and lack of continuity. Whatever approach they decide upon, developing a stable identity is essential for competing effectively in the challenging Western Conference.

The Lakers-Timberwolves Series Outcome Hinges On: _____?

Depth. Minnesota`s bench significantly outscored Los Angeles` reserves 25-6 in Game 4, building upon their combined plus-42 advantage through the first three games of the series. Lakers coach JJ Redick took the drastic step of using only five players for the entire second half on Sunday, leaving Gabe Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Jordan Goodwin, typically key parts of L.A.`s second unit, on the bench. This disparity is partly a matter of team construction. Redick does not appear convinced that Alex Len is a viable backup center and, given the series dynamics, seems reluctant to play Jaxson Hayes either. In contrast, Minnesota has received valuable contributions from Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid, complementing the star performances of Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle.

What Has Been the Biggest Surprise in the Western Conference First Round So Far?

The speed at which both Lakers coach Redick and Nuggets coach David Adelman began relying almost exclusively on their top five players when their teams were trailing 2-1 on the road. Adelman`s hand was partly forced by Russell Westbrook`s foot injury in Game 4, but only two teams in the past two decades had utilized reserves less than Denver`s bench did on Saturday (25.6 minutes). Redick went even further on Sunday, becoming the first coach in the play-by-play era to play the same five players for an entire second half without substitutions, according to data from the Elias Sports Bureau.

Which Western Conference Team Has the Best Shot at Defeating the Thunder?

The LA Clippers, currently locked in a battle with the Denver Nuggets for the right to face the top-seeded Thunder, possess the necessary components to challenge Oklahoma City. Winners of 20 of their last 25 games, the Clippers are an elite defensive team anchored by Kawhi Leonard, a superstar capable of being the best player in any series, even when matched against potential MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Offseason additions Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. would be crucial defenders tasked with slowing down Gilgeous-Alexander, who cannot be entirely stopped. However, his former team could at least force him to work diligently for every scoring opportunity.