With only two regular-season games left for each NBA team, the Western Conference playoff spots are still very much in flux. While the top teams in the East are mostly decided, the West is a tight race, with teams ranked 3rd to 8th separated by just two games.
Even though the Oklahoma City Thunder have secured the top seed in the West, predicting the rest of the playoff bracket is difficult. One Western Conference executive described it as unpredictable, depending on matchups.
Over the past week, we`ve gathered insights from league scouts and executives to preview the Western Conference playoffs. We`re looking at whether the Los Angeles Lakers are true title contenders, how far the LA Clippers can go, and what to expect from the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies after recent coaching changes.
How the Lakers Address Their Biggest Weakness
The Lakers are trying to overcome their lack of size this postseason. Coach JJ Redick is focusing on a perimeter-based game to utilize the team`s scoring abilities while minimizing their interior defense issues.
One rival executive noted that players like Luka Doncic and James Harden usually elevate the play of their centers. However, the Lakers are relying on players like Rui Hachimura and Dorian Finney-Smith at center, whose skills might not be as easily amplified by a playmaker like Luka. Their success will depend on whether these players can consistently hit shots.
The Lakers compensate for their lack of a traditional center with overall positional size. Even their smaller players, like Austin Reaves (6-foot-5), are relatively big for their positions. The combination of Doncic, LeBron James, and Reaves creating plays on the perimeter has been effective. Reaves, in particular, has improved his 3-point shooting since Doncic joined the team.
A veteran scout mentioned that the Lakers have more shot creators than many opponents, making them a dangerous matchup. However, the team still lacks top-tier individual defenders. While Coach Redick`s system has worked in the regular season, the playoffs will test how well the Lakers can defend when teams specifically target James, Doncic, and Reaves.
The scout pointed out that Luka needs to defend, and opponents can tire him out. LeBron tends to switch on defense to conserve energy, but in the playoffs, teams will likely exploit mismatches by putting LeBron and Luka in pick-and-roll situations. While acknowledging LeBron`s greatness, the scout believes his defense could be a vulnerability in the playoffs with the right opponent.
Warriors: A Team No One Wants to Face
When the Warriors acquired Jimmy Butler III, Coach Steve Kerr stated their goal was a top-six seed. Their early success with Butler and Stephen Curry suggested they could aim higher, but Kerr was realistic about the team`s limitations.
An Eastern Conference executive noted that while small ball has its place, the Warriors` championship teams had size, mentioning players like Andrew Bogut, Kevon Looney, Klay Thompson, and Kevin Durant. He questioned if their current small lineup approach would be as effective in a deep playoff run, especially relying on Draymond Green to play more center minutes at his age. He wouldn`t be surprised if they increase Looney`s playing time.
However, Butler`s arrival has undeniably boosted the team`s confidence, a sentiment echoed by Curry and Green. This renewed confidence fulfills Curry`s preseason goal of playing meaningful basketball again. Whether they win another title or reach the Finals again, the Warriors have achieved their objective.
A Western Conference executive emphasized that the Warriors` confidence is key, and Butler has provided that. He concluded, “I would not want to play them in any round.”
Nuggets Remain a Threat Despite Coaching Change
The Nuggets recently fired coach Michael Malone, adding to the coaching changes in the league. They also didn`t renew general manager Calvin Booth`s contract.
A Western scout commented that while a new voice can be needed, the front office hasn`t effectively built the roster beyond the top players through drafting. He found the timing of the changes surprising.
Denver has faced challenges beyond coaching changes. Jamal Murray is injured again, Aaron Gordon has dealt with injuries, and Russell Westbrook`s inconsistency has been evident. Their defense has also declined since the All-Star break.
Despite these issues, league insiders still believe Denver can make a deep playoff run because of Nikola Jokic. As the scout simply stated, “They have [Nikola Jokic]. That automatically gives you a chance.”
Grizzlies Need Ja Morant to Elevate His Game
Before the trade deadline, the Grizzlies were performing well, but their season has declined since then. Injuries to Ja Morant, the firing of coach Taylor Jenkins, and a drop in the standings have marked their struggles. Rookie Jaylen Wells` wrist injury is another significant setback.
A Western executive highlighted the loss of Wells as a major blow, as he was their primary point-of-attack defender.
Memphis`s offense and defense have been below average since the All-Star break, and they are now dealing with the aftermath of coaching staff changes.
The key question is Morant`s performance. His recent off-court behavior has drawn attention, and his playoff performance will be crucial in determining the Grizzlies` potential. An Eastern executive questioned their internal strength to overcome recent challenges, noting they are relying on Morant to return to his previous form, which hasn`t happened yet.
A Western executive doubts if Morant can be the best player in a playoff series, except possibly against Houston.
Rockets: A Tough Playoff Matchup
The Rockets have been a surprise this season, securing a high seed in the West with a strong defense and deep roster.
An Eastern Conference scout praised coach Ime Udoka, suggesting he should be considered for Coach of the Year. He believes any team facing the Rockets will have a difficult time.
Despite being a younger team compared to other top West contenders, facing Houston in the playoffs won`t be an easy path. For the Rockets, the playoff experience will be valuable for their development.
One scout described them as intriguing, noting their offensive inconsistencies but acknowledging they`ve created a good environment for Jalen Green. He is interested to see their playoff performance, liking them but not considering them top contenders.
Minnesota`s Playoff Run Filled with Uncertainty
The Timberwolves have had an up-and-down season, dealing with injuries to key players. They`ve shown they can compete with top teams like OKC and Denver but have also had disappointing losses.
One executive expressed uncertainty about their playoff chances, citing their youth and occasional immaturity. While acknowledging Anthony Edwards` talent and Rudy Gobert`s impact, he mentioned unknowns like Julius Randle`s role and Mike Conley`s durability. However, he admitted they could get on a hot streak.
Last year, the Timberwolves surprised by defeating the Phoenix Suns and pushing the Nuggets in the playoffs. Despite their inconsistency, their high potential makes another deep run possible.
A scout considers them a sleeper team in the West playoffs, praising their balance and the contributions of players like Randle. He is intrigued to see what they can achieve.
Clippers` Playoff Hopes Depend on Kawhi Leonard
While other Western Conference teams like the Lakers and Warriors have been in the spotlight, the Clippers have quietly positioned themselves for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
An executive believes they are “really good,” highlighting Ivica Zubac`s underrated contributions and the playoff experience of Kawhi Leonard and James Harden.
The Clippers` ultimate success hinges on Leonard`s health. Since March 1st, he has been performing at an elite level, averaging over 25 points with high shooting percentages. He has also been playing significant minutes. If Leonard can maintain this level of play and availability, the Clippers will be a formidable force. However, his health has been a recurring question mark.
The executive noted Leonard`s strong play but cautioned about his durability, saying, “Let`s see how he looks in a couple weeks. We`ve seen him get to this point and then break down.”