With 93 days until NBA free agency on June 30th, teams are already strategizing. Front offices are focused on college prospects from March Madness and preparing for free agency and potential trades.
While major superstar changes might be unlikely, many interesting questions need answers. This week, we examine the offseason center market, the Minnesota Timberwolves` plans, and complex decisions for restricted free agents.
Jump to a section:
Watch Minnesota`s moves this summer
Key player options, including LeBron`s
Centers are in the offseason spotlight
2025 restricted FAs have `no leverage`
What`s happening in Minnesota this summer?
Bontemps: The Timberwolves, despite being above the second luxury tax apron, are a team to watch this summer. They could have three top unrestricted free agents: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid, and Julius Randle. Alexander-Walker is expected to test the market, while Reid and Randle have player options. These situations create interesting choices for Minnesota.
Windhorst: Six weeks ago, Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez won their arbitration case to buy the Timberwolves from Glen Taylor. They claimed to have $950 million ready, but the sale hasn`t progressed. The NBA board meeting passed without a vote, and Commissioner Adam Silver stated Taylor is considering his options, including appealing or continuing talks with Lore and Rodriguez.
This is crucial as the Wolves already have $145 million in salaries for next season before re-signing free agents. Re-signing Alexander-Walker, Reid, and Randle while staying under the $207 million second apron will be challenging, depending on ownership`s financial commitment. The team is currently in the play-in tournament zone.
Minnesota also faces uncertainty with team president Tim Connelly, who has an opt-out clause this summer due to the ownership situation. Lore wants to extend Connelly`s contract once he gains control.
Bontemps: Despite the ownership and front office questions, decisions regarding Alexander-Walker, Reid, and Randle are pressing.
Alexander-Walker, cousin of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is expected to secure a significant contract. After revitalizing his career in Minnesota with strong shooting and defense, he could command a midlevel contract (around $60 million over four years).
Reid and Randle are likely to return to Minnesota, though their contract structures are uncertain. They might opt into their existing contracts and extend, or opt out for new deals. (Reid`s option is $15 million, Randle`s is $29 million).
What about other major player options?
Windhorst: Three veteran Hall of Famers have notable player options: LeBron James, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving.
LeBron James could opt into his $53 million option or sign a new one-year max deal with an option. Last summer, he considered taking less money to help the Lakers improve the roster but ultimately didn`t. With Luka Doncic now on the team, James might reconsider a discount.
If James opts in or re-signs similarly, the Lakers would be slightly into the luxury tax and have a taxpayer midlevel exception ($5.7 million). A discount from James could give them the full midlevel exception (around $14 million) and more flexibility under the second apron. The Lakers have over $60 million in expiring contracts and draft assets for potential trades.
Bontemps: Kyrie Irving has a similar situation with a $42.9 million player option with the Dallas Mavericks. Despite an ACL tear expected to sideline him for much of next season, the Mavericks intend to keep Irving. The question is the structure of his new deal as Dallas navigates luxury tax concerns and needs to address shot creation while Irving is out.
If Irving opts in, the Mavericks will already be a luxury tax team with 11 players under contract and lacking a proven ball-handler in Irving`s absence.
Windhorst: James Harden declined a three-year, $160 million extension from the Nets in 2021 and has taken pay cuts since. He signed a two-year, $70 million deal with the Clippers last year, betting on himself and opting out of the second year after an All-Star season. He`s likely to seek a raise. The Clippers aimed for 2026 cap space but might need to offer Harden a new multiyear contract. With Norman Powell`s contract expiring soon, the Clippers might need to spend regardless.
What about the rest of the free agent centers?
Bontemps: Besides Naz Reid, Brook Lopez and Myles Turner are key free agent centers this summer. Milwaukee and Indiana face financial constraints affecting Lopez and Turner.
If Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, and Kevin Porter Jr. opt into their Bucks contracts, Milwaukee will have over $155 million committed to six players, limiting their ability to re-sign Lopez while staying under the luxury tax. Indiana faces a similar situation with Turner.
Windhorst: Sources indicate the Pacers want to keep Turner, who is nearing 700 games with the franchise. However, Indiana is financially constrained, projected to be $22 million below the luxury tax without Turner, who will seek a raise from his $19.9 million salary. The Pacers haven`t paid luxury tax since 2005 and don`t plan to next season. Re-signing Turner will require negotiation.
Bontemps: The center market is currently depressed. Few teams have significant cap space, and none are targeting high-priced veteran centers.
Lopez and Turner`s leverage might be limited to accepting a midlevel exception elsewhere, a pay cut. This could lead to tougher negotiations with Indiana and Milwaukee as new CBA rules tighten salary structures.
What about the restricted free agents?
Windhorst: It`s a challenging year for restricted free agents.
One agent noted that only Brooklyn has significant cap space and may rebuild slowly, not spending heavily now. This agent stated they have never seen such a free agency market with only one team having substantial cap space, calling it difficult for these free agents.
The Nets could have $45-60 million in space and might create more. However, after reacquiring draft picks last summer, they signal a focus on rebuilding through next year.
An executive suggested Brooklyn will likely use their space for trades, not free agent signings, even if trades occur later.
Without competition from teams like Brooklyn, restricted free agents like Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga, Santi Aldama, and Cam Thomas have limited negotiating power.
One agent described it as “no leverage,” preparing clients for a “free agent recession” this summer, suggesting next year will be better with a rising cap and teams adjusting to new spending rules. They may need to wait and try again later.
Bontemps: Kuminga`s situation is particularly interesting. He was discussed in Kevin Durant trade talks, but the Warriors value him. Golden State owes a combined $139.6 million to Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green. Kuminga`s fit with Butler and Green, given their perimeter shooting, is questionable. This could complicate offering him a large contract after extension talks failed before the season.
Windhorst: Giddey`s situation is also notable. His role with the Bulls has increased since trades and injuries. Since February 1st, he`s averaged 20.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 7.7 assists with improved shooting. Before, he played fewer minutes and scored less. However, the Bulls` large contract for Patrick Williams last summer, who then underperformed, might impact Giddey`s negotiations. Chicago didn`t negotiate hard with Williams, and Giddey might face the consequences.
