• Zach Kram
  • Kevin Pelton

The demanding nature of the NBA playoffs, requiring multiple series wins, often highlights teams` vulnerabilities on their path to the Finals.

Even the top-tier teams, such as the Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 1 seed), Cleveland Cavaliers (Eastern Conference leaders), and Boston Celtics (reigning champions), are not without flaws.

We will statistically analyze the top eight teams (top three from the East and top five from the West) to pinpoint their weaknesses and determine which opponents could exploit them in the postseason.

East contenders:
BOS | CLE | NYK

West contenders:
DEN | GS | HOU | LAL | OKC

Contents
  1. EAST CONTENDERS
  2. Boston Celtics
  3. Cleveland Cavaliers
  4. Editor`s Picks
  5. SGA or Jokic? Results are in for ESPN`s final MVP straw poll
  6. Who should win the tightest NBA award races? League insiders weigh in
  7. `Everybody has to run their own race`: Will Thibs` strategy doom the minutes-heavy Knicks?
  8. New York Knicks
  9. NBA Playoff Challenge
  10. WEST CONTENDERS
  11. Denver Nuggets
  12. Houston Rockets
  13. Golden State Warriors
  14. Los Angeles Lakers
  15. Oklahoma City Thunder

EAST CONTENDERS

Boston Celtics

Weakness: Slow Pace Offense

Despite being a strong team in both offense and defense, a potential issue for the Celtics in the playoffs is their deliberate offensive tempo.

Boston`s offense ranks low in speed-related stats, such as pace, fast break points, and transition frequency. They also take a long time to shoot after rebounds or turnovers.

While their methodical approach has generally worked, it can become a problem when their 3-point shots aren`t falling, potentially hindering their ability to score easy baskets.

Who might exploit it: Thunder, Orlando Magic, Cavaliers

The Thunder have an exceptional half-court defense. While they also defend transition well, the Celtics` reliance on half-court offense could be detrimental in a Finals matchup. They lost twice to the Thunder this season, struggling offensively in the first game.

The Magic and Cavaliers also possess strong half-court defenses in the East. Orlando, despite lacking offensive power, could pose a defensively challenging series. — Zach Kram

Cleveland Cavaliers

Weakness: Small Backcourt

Unlike the Thunder and Celtics with strong defenses across all positions, the Cavaliers` smaller backcourt can be targeted. Their guards rely on their larger teammates, Mobley and Allen, for defensive support.

Opponents may exploit mismatches by forcing switches onto wings, targeting smaller guards like Mitchell, Garland, and Jerome, especially Jerome who is considered a weaker defender.

Who might exploit it: Thunder, Detroit Pistons

Teams with strong perimeter scorers can target this weakness, but the Thunder are particularly well-suited due to their frequent guard-guard pick plays.

The Thunder`s screen-setting guards like Joe, Dort, Wallace, and Caruso present a challenge for Cleveland, potentially leading to open 3-pointers or isolation opportunities for Gilgeous-Alexander.

Detroit, with screeners like Beasley and Hardaway Jr. for Cunningham, could also exploit this weakness in a matchup. — Kram

New York Knicks

Weakness: Defending Stretch Bigs

Despite having Towns, a strong stretch big, the Knicks struggle defensively against opposing shooting centers. They allow many points from pick-and-pop plays, often leaving big men open or scrambling to cover the perimeter.

Coach Thibodeau rarely switches Towns on screens, making the Knicks vulnerable to pick-and-pop plays in five-out offenses.

Who might exploit it: Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks

The Knicks` potential playoff opponents, Celtics and Bucks, have prolific pick-and-pop players in Porzingis and Lopez.

Porzingis exploited this in his game against the Knicks, getting open for 3-pointers. While the Knicks might have defensive wings, they have struggled to defend the Celtics` shooters this season.

The Bucks might be less of a threat due to fewer perimeter threats around Lopez and Antetokounmpo, and Lopez has scored less against the Knicks this season. — Kram

WEST CONTENDERS

Denver Nuggets

Weakness: Transition Defense

A key weakness for the Nuggets is their defense, particularly in transition. They rank poorly in preventing transition points and fast-break points.

Despite leading the league in fast-break points themselves, they struggle to stop opponents in transition, allowing a high points per transition play.

Who might exploit it: Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies

The Thunder and Grizzlies are among the best transition offenses. Oklahoma City excels at steals, creating transition opportunities, while Memphis has consistently had a strong transition attack.

Improving transition defense might be crucial for Denver in the playoffs. They had mixed success against the Thunder and Grizzlies in the regular season. — Kram

Houston Rockets

Weakness: Half-Court Offense

While improved recently, Houston`s half-court offense remains a weakness. They are still ranked low in points per play in half-court situations among playoff teams.

Their overall offense is decent due to strong offensive rebounding and transition play, but these easy points might decrease in the playoffs.

A team reliant on second chances like the Rockets could see offensive struggles in the playoffs, similar to the Knicks in the previous season.

Who might exploit it: Clippers, Thunder

The Rockets` strong half-court defense might face challenges against the Clippers and Thunder. The Clippers, with a strong defense, rebounding, and playoff experience, could be a difficult first-round opponent.

Despite winning regular-season games against the Thunder, their half-court offense could be tested in a playoff series. — Pelton

Golden State Warriors

Weakness: Midrange Shooting

Despite having great 3-point shooters, the Warriors struggle with midrange shots. They have a low shooting percentage on non-paint 2-pointers.

Although they limit midrange attempts, this might increase in the playoffs. Playoff teams tend to take more midrange shots compared to the regular season.

Who might exploit it: Nuggets

Interestingly, few potential West playoff opponents pressure midrange shots. The Nuggets are an exception, forcing opponents into midrange attempts.

The Warriors had mixed results against the Nuggets in games where they took midrange shots. — Pelton

Los Angeles Lakers

Weakness: Turnover Differential

Integrating Doncic has caused turnover issues for the Lakers. Their turnover rate has increased since the All-Star break.

This issue is worsened by their inability to force turnovers defensively. Their turnover differential has worsened recently.

Who might exploit it: Warriors, Thunder

Oklahoma City excels at forcing turnovers, and their turnover differential is historically high. They forced many turnovers in a previous game against the Lakers.

The Warriors have also improved at forcing turnovers since adding Butler. — Pelton

Oklahoma City Thunder

Weakness: Free Throw Disadvantage

While strong overall, the Thunder have a free throw disadvantage. They rank low in free throw rate and allow many free throws on defense, resulting in opponents taking more free throws.

Coach Daigneault has noted this free throw differential as a source of frustration.

Who might exploit it: Nuggets, Lakers

The Lakers and Nuggets are potential playoff opponents who could exploit this. Denver had a free throw advantage in one of their wins against Oklahoma City.

The Thunder and Lakers have contrasting strengths, and their upcoming game will be interesting. — Pelton