Does Cade Cunningham`s current performance qualify him as an MVP candidate?
Two years ago, a similar question arose concerning another young guard, and the parallels are striking. In 2023, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander delivered an outstanding season, leading a team widely considered a lottery bound to the playoffs. He put up impressive statistics, marking his first largely healthy season in his prime. Early in the 2023-24 season, his MVP odds, according to ESPN BET, were the eighth shortest.
Fast forward to today, and Cade Cunningham has also just completed a season where he guided his Detroit Pistons, previously projected for the draft lottery, into the playoffs. For the first time in his career, the No. 1 pick from the 2021 NBA draft played more than 64 games in a season. Just a week into the current championship, Cunningham has the seventh shortest MVP odds at 60-1, according to ESPN BET.
Is Cunningham truly a viable MVP candidate this season?
Recalling the previous example, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished second in the 2023-24 MVP race, and many believed he deserved to win. This paved the way for him to return and win the 2024-25 MVP award. Is Cunningham following a similar trajectory?
First, let`s examine his competition and the individual production needed to enter the MVP conversation.
According to ESPN BET, the top favorites for this season`s MVP are Gilgeous-Alexander (+225), Victor Wembanyama (+275), and Nikola Jokic (+375).
The reigning MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander, led the NBA in scoring last season, averaging 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game.
Wembanyama was arguably the most anticipated player in NBA history over the past two years, and just one week into the season, he is fully living up to expectations, averaging 33.3 points, 13.3 rebounds, and a remarkable 6.0 blocks per game. If he maintains this pace, it might be exceedingly difficult for anyone else to win MVP this season.
Jokic, who has placed in the top-2 of MVP voting for five consecutive seasons, winning three of them, just became the first center in NBA history to average a triple-double over a full season. He also became the first player in league history to rank in the top-4 for points, assists, rebounds, and steals per game in the same season, with averages of 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.2 assists, and 2.0 steals.
Cunningham`s averages last season (26.1 points, 9.1 assists, and 6.1 rebounds), while impressive, do not yet match the level of these frontrunners. However, there is hope: Cade has consistently increased his scoring and assist averages in every season of his career, and the rate of these improvements has grown year after year. For instance, his scoring increase was 2.5 points from season one to two, 2.8 points from season two to three, and 3.4 points from season three to four. For assists, the increases were 0.4, 1.5, and 1.6, respectively.
If Cunningham can demonstrate similar progress this season—adding 3.9 points and just 0.9 assists—he would become only the fourth player in NBA history to average 30 points and 10 assists per game. The first was former MVP Oscar Robertson, and the most recent was Russell Westbrook, also a former MVP. If Cade reaches this level, his statistics would, at minimum, enter the same conversation as the phenomenal numbers of the other main contenders.
But there`s another crucial aspect to consider: Cunningham`s impact on team victories.
How does Cunningham`s presence translate to Pistons` success?
Last season, Gilgeous-Alexander had the second-best on-court/off-court plus-minus (on/off +/-) in the NBA: the Thunder played 17.5 points per 100 possessions better when he was on the court than when he was off. And he achieved this for a Thunder squad that held the NBA`s best record at 68-14.
Jokic, last season, had the best on/off +/- in the NBA at +19.0 PP100, marking his fourth consecutive season with an on/off +/- greater than 16 PP100. However, the Nuggets` record slipped slightly to 50-32 after they went 57-25 in the season prior when Jokic won his third MVP.
Cunningham`s on/off +/- last season was only +3.4 PP100, but it was for a Pistons team that improved its record from 14-68 in the season before last to 44-38. To seriously contend for the MVP race this season, Cunningham will need to achieve a double-digit on/off +/-, and the Pistons will likely need to win at least 55-60 games.
The latter condition is likely the most challenging, but in the Eastern Conference, the Pistons have a chance to rise to the top. Due to injuries to Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton, who were the best players on the last two teams to win the Eastern Conference, the East is wide open this season. If the Pistons can ascend from the fifth seed last season to the top seed this season, regardless of their overall record, Cunningham will generate significant MVP buzz.
Cunningham has work to do to become a top MVP candidate this season.
While Cunningham still has ground to cover to enter the same league as Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jokic, his statistics and the Pistons` improvement trajectory suggest it is possible.
The most recent MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander, showed a very similar growth dynamic two seasons ago. With Cunningham currently listed at long odds of 60-1, there is certainly “lottery-ticket” value in betting on him.
The most probable outcome is that it will take another couple of seasons for Cunningham to truly reach the highest level, but the unique circumstances in the East give him at least a fair shot to break into the top-5 or even higher in the MVP voting this season.
