The 2025 offseason features a limited pool of top-tier unrestricted free agents alongside a rapidly increasing salary cap. This combination makes it highly probable that Brian Burke`s famous saying, “the biggest mistakes get made on July 1,” will be especially relevant this year.
Mitch Marner is arguably the most prominent name available this free agency period. There`s a noticeable drop-off in perceived value behind him to players like Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, John Tavares, Brock Boeser, and Aaron Ekblad. This stands in sharp contrast to July 1, 2026, which could potentially see superstars like Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, Kyle Connor, and John Carlson become free agents. While some of these players might sign extensions beforehand, the sheer potential availability a year from now should compel general managers to seriously reconsider signing expensive, long-term deals in the summer of 2025.
The restricted supply of valuable players in 2025 significantly increases the likelihood of teams overpaying on contracts. To successfully contend for a Stanley Cup, teams need players who consistently outperform their cap hits and must avoid inefficient contracts at all costs. While teams in states or provinces without income tax might have a slight advantage, many elite players on successful teams provide value far exceeding the nominal “tax-free” benefit.
For instance, Sam Reinhart likely would have commanded an average annual value (AAV) of around $10 million on the open market but signed for $8.625 million to stay with the Florida Panthers. According to advanced modeling, Reinhart`s actual value is closer to $12.6 million, meaning Florida gains an extra $2.6 million in value beyond any tax considerations. Similar situations exist for players like Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, Thomas Harley, and Shea Theodore.
Even in markets with taxes, elite players such as Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Seth Jarvis, and Nico Hischier are delivering performance well above their contract values. Perhaps the most striking examples are in Edmonton, where Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Zach Hyman are dramatically exceeding their contract expectations. Draisaitl`s substantial upcoming contract is still projected to be efficient. For Evan Bouchard, any contract with an AAV below $9.5 million would be considered a financially sound deal.
Reports suggest Mitch Marner expects an AAV of $14 million per year. However, an efficient contract based on his value would be closer to $12 million. Sam Bennett, who shares the same agent as Marner (Darren Ferris), is reportedly seeking around $9 million AAV. This figure for a player whose career high is 51 points would put him in the pay bracket of an elite second-line center, despite his production levels resembling a low-end second-liner or high-end third-liner. While there are valid points about Marner`s regular-season impact and Bennett`s playoff contributions, any team aiming for championship contention simply cannot afford to pay these players 10% or more above their actual value.
Considering Toronto`s existing salary cap structure, re-signing Marner is unlikely to lead to long-term success because such a large contract would severely hinder their ability to build a balanced roster. If Marner genuinely wants to play for a contender and win, then contract efficiency becomes crucial. If we use the efficiency of Leon Draisaitl`s upcoming contract as a benchmark, which Marner`s representatives are reportedly using for comparison, anything exceeding $12 million would cripple a team`s ability to compete – and that`s assuming Marner performs at Draisaitl`s elite playoff level, something he has yet to demonstrate. For Marner to have a contract providing comparable value to deals like those for Reinhart, Kucherov, or Kaprizov, he would need to sign for roughly $10 million AAV.
It is now clearer than ever that the Maple Leafs organization requires a significant roster overhaul. Despite opportunities for substantial changes being missed through past trade discussions, Toronto is now facing the reality of potentially losing a player of superstar caliber without receiving assets in return. However, extending Marner on an inefficient contract, especially when evaluating playoff performance, is something Toronto simply cannot afford to do. Here`s a suggested path forward.
With the contracts for Mitch Marner and John Tavares set to expire, the Leafs have considerable flexibility regarding cap space. While they cannot replace Marner`s value with a single player, they can strategically reallocate funds across the lineup to improve depth.
John Tavares is expected to re-sign with Toronto, and rumors indicate an AAV around $5 million. This would be an efficient contract for a middle-six center, particularly one who scored 38 goals in the 2024-25 season. Instead of pursuing a short-term bridge deal for restricted free agent Matthew Knies, the Leafs should aim for a long-term contract in the range of $8.5 million AAV. Combined, the cost of long-term deals for Tavares and Knies would likely be less than Marner`s asking price, and the combined value of these two players arguably outweighs Marner`s expected value at his target AAV.
Toronto should anticipate Easton Cowan contributing in a middle-six role on his entry-level contract next season. It appears almost essential for Toronto GM Brad Treliving to trade at least two players from the group including David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Max Domi, and Nick Robertson. The salary cap relief generated by these moves could be used to sign impactful free agents like Matt Duchene, Brad Marchand, or Pius Suter, all of whom could provide significantly greater value in elevated roles than the players traded.
Implementing these strategic roster adjustments would enable Toronto to build three genuinely productive forward lines. The success of the Florida Panthers` third line was a critical factor in the Leafs` playoff series loss to them, a success made possible because efficient contracts among Florida`s top players allowed for better cap allocation and a more balanced lineup approach.
Speaking of the Panthers, there have been suggestions that the Leafs might be interested in Sam Bennett. While the reasoning behind this interest is understandable, it`s important to recall Bennett`s performance and value before he joined Florida. During his time as Flames GM, Brad Treliving traded Bennett out of Calgary for relatively minor assets because he struggled to find consistency in his game. Bennett has found a perfect fit in Florida, but much of his perceived value stems from his physical play and `extracurricular activities,` rather than primary offensive production. If these non-scoring contributions were to face stricter penalties, their value could diminish.
Consider this: John Tavares scored 38 goals and 74 points last season and is likely signing for around $5 million. Sam Bennett`s career high in points is 51. While Bennett is younger, signing him to a contract worth 1.5 times Tavares`s contract until he reaches Tavares`s age – despite averaging 0.68 points per game in Florida and only 0.48 points per game over his entire career – would be a disastrous decision for cap management.
Florida`s reported reluctance to pay Bennett more than $7 million per year is entirely justified; even $7 million would be slightly inflated based on value. Given Florida`s recent success, the Maple Leafs would be wise to learn from their disciplined approach to contracts. An AAV of $7.5 million for Bennett might be inefficient but potentially manageable if the Leafs are certain that his physical game won`t draw increased penalties in a market where the hockey team is constantly under scrutiny. However, should Bennett`s camp demand more, the Leafs should absolutely look elsewhere. Targeting players like Pius Suter or Matt Duchene on July 1, and perhaps orchestrating a trade for a player like Mason Marchment from Dallas, offers a theoretical example of building a more balanced and efficient forward group.
Regardless of the specific players acquired through free agency or trade, the fundamental need for the Maple Leafs is to balance their forward depth and strictly avoid signing inefficient contracts. They currently have too many such deals on the books and would benefit greatly from shedding a couple. The best teams don`t consistently contend solely because of one or two star players; this holds true even for teams like the Oilers, despite having generational talents like McDavid and Draisaitl.
Instead, perennial contenders succeed because their top players outperform their contracts, and their depth provides quality contributions across the lineup. This depth is enabled by management`s ability to acquire better value players that create balance. Current examples include Florida`s effective third line and Edmonton`s depth contributions from players like Corey Perry, Jake Walman, and Connor Brown. Due to the efficient contracts held by players like Roope Hintz, Thomas Harley, and Matt Duchene, Dallas was able to make a significant move like acquiring a superstar such as Mikko Rantanen (in a hypothetical scenario or similar high-impact trade enabled by cap flexibility).
Toronto must adopt a ruthless mindset – similar to how the Tampa Bay Lightning operated during their consecutive Stanley Cup championships and how the Vegas Golden Knights have functioned since their inception. If a player is unwilling to sign a contract that aligns with the team`s requirements for success, then they should not remain a Maple Leaf. Significant trade protection for players outside of the top-six forwards or top-four defensemen must become a practice of the past. Limited no-trade clauses (like eight or 10-team lists) might be manageable for third-line players, but the days of granting any level of trade protection to bottom-pair defenders or players like David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, and Ryan Reaves must end immediately. The team cannot allow its ability to make necessary roster moves to be hampered by providing protection to players who are easily replaceable each summer.
For the Leafs to ultimately win, they need to maintain a relentless focus on achieving contract efficiency throughout the roster. This likely means accepting the short-term loss of `pure talent` in order to build a more balanced, sustainable, and long-term competitive approach, a strategy that has proven highly successful for numerous other championship-winning organizations.
