Like many, I`d love to see Connor McDavid finally lift the Stanley Cup. It would be fantastic to see his incredible collection of individual awards—five scoring titles, three Hart trophies, four NHLPA MVP awards—culminate in a championship ring, much like trading carnival tickets for a grand prize. Witnessing him finally guide the Edmonton Oilers to their first Cup since 1990 would be a fitting reward for a decade of effort, and the Oilers fans certainly deserve another celebration with McDavid leading the charge.
It would also be a relief to see the image of him looking utterly defeated after Game 7 last season replaced by one of triumph. That series was so emotionally taxing that he was named playoff MVP moments after losing in the final. Furthermore, a Cup win would finally silence the easy criticism used against McDavid`s status as a hockey legend: that he “never won the Cup.” This hurdle was eventually overcome by stars like Alex Ovechkin and Nathan MacKinnon. I yearn for that moment of pure catharsis when he first hoists the trophy. The king deserves his coronation.
However, my personal desires clash completely with what the Florida Panthers seem determined to do. They denied McDavid his Stanley Cup dream last season, and they appear set to do it again in this rematch, despite many pundits and sportsbooks favoring McDavid and the Oilers. Here are five key reasons why the Panthers are likely headed for a repeat:
Florida is Better Than Last Season`s Champion Squad
Undeniably, the Oilers have improved since last season. Edmonton`s roster is deeper and more unified than the team that won the Western Conference in 2024. They are scoring more (4.06 goals per game) and their 5-on-5 defense is significantly better, allowing 1.89 goals per 60 minutes, a decrease from 2.55 in the previous postseason. Their ability to defend late in games has been impressive, as seen in their shot suppression during the final three wins against the Dallas Stars. They had a minus-6 goal differential in the third period last postseason but are plus-11 through 16 games this year. Their only decline is on the penalty kill, having given up 16 goals in 16 games compared to four in 25 games last season. The return of Mattias Ekholm should help address this.
But the Panthers have also improved, dramatically so. And that`s a frightening prospect for opponents.
Florida boasts a plus-27 goal differential over 17 games this year, a significant jump from plus-11 last season. They are scoring more (3.88) and conceding fewer goals (2.29). At 5-on-5, their goals per 60 minutes have increased from 2.39 to 3.53. Their power play is also better year-over-year – something to note given Edmonton`s PK struggles – and the penalty kill remains consistent.
They also upgraded key positions during the season, notably adding Seth Jones to their second defense pairing and Brad Marchand to their third line.
Last season, Florida`s second pairing featured Niko Mikkola and Brandon Montour, a skilled puck-mover who parlayed his performance into a contract with the Seattle Kraken. That pairing saw the Panthers controlling 49% of shot attempts and averaging 1.84 goals for and 2.03 goals against per 60 minutes. Mikkola paired with Jones this season represents a clear upgrade: 56% shot attempts, 4.14 goals for, and 1.69 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Their expected goals against is 1.48 per 60, a stark improvement from Montour and Mikkola`s 2.37 last postseason.
This isn`t solely due to Jones` addition; Mikkola himself has elevated his game, defending better and displaying surprising offensive pace for a 6-foot-6 defenseman nicknamed `The Condor.` Marchand commented, “Meeks has been a beast. All playoffs, he`s everywhere. I don`t think he gets enough credit. He`s extremely tough to play against. Then when you play with him, and you realize that he`s not flashy, but he closes so quick, he`s always on top of guys and he`s physical.”
The addition of Marchand has also made Florida more dangerous, on and off the ice. The third line of their Cup-winning team centered by Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen was solid, but adding Marchand, acquired from Boston at the trade deadline, enhanced the team in multiple ways.
Marchand, Lundell, and Luostarinen have controlled 53% of shot attempts at 5-on-5, averaging 4.2 goals and 0.82 goals against per 60 minutes. Marchand has 14 points in 17 games, Luostarinen 13, and Lundell five goals and seven assists, providing remarkable center depth as a `Baby Barkov.` This solidified third line allows Florida to keep their potent top six intact: Aleksander Barkov with Sam Reinhart, and Sam Bennett with Matthew Tkachuk. Carter Verhaeghe, a clutch playoff scorer, and Evan Rodrigues, an analytics favorite, rotate on the wings, and both combinations have been successful.
Beyond the stats, the Panthers are playing with the kind of poise and confidence only a championship pedigree can bring. They have proof of concept.
Bobrovsky vs. Skinner
These two goaltenders have followed similar playoff trajectories: inconsistent performances early on, followed by dominant runs that began midway through the second round and continued into the Final.
`Middling` is perhaps generous for Skinner early in the playoffs, where he was benched and only returned after Calvin Pickard was injured against the Vegas Golden Knights. But from Game 4 against Vegas through the Cup Final, he`s been outstanding: 6-1 record, .944 save percentage, 1.41 goals-against average, and three shutouts.
Bobrovsky also started slowly until a Game 4 shutout against the Maple Leafs. After that, he went 7-2 with a .944 save percentage, 1.34 goals-against average, and two shutouts. He had a chaotic Final series last season but clinched the Cup with a 23-save performance in Game 7, reinforcing the `Playoff Bob` narrative the Oilers will hear about constantly.
Statistically, both goalies were near replacement level overall according to Stathletes. However, over their past five games, Bobrovsky (2.35 goals saved above expected) has been analytically superior to Skinner (1.89).
Skinner is playing well enough not to lose the series for Edmonton, which is essentially all they can hope for from him and Pickard. Bobrovsky, however, if he maintains his `Playoff Bob` form, has the potential to win the series for Florida. That difference is significant.
The Panthers Are Road Warriors
The biggest change this year is that Edmonton has home-ice advantage. Ironically, this might benefit the Panthers. Florida is 8-2 on the road, tied for the sixth-best winning percentage in NHL postseason history (minimum eight road games). Their 4.80 goals per game on the road would make them the highest-scoring road playoff team ever (minimum eight road games). That plus-27 goal differential? It all came on the road, where they scored 48 and allowed 21. They are even (18 for, 18 against) at home.
Defenseman Gustav Forsling described the feeling: “It`s us against the world. That kind of feeling.”
Two clear reasons explain Florida`s road dominance. First, they are at their best when they simplify their offense, becoming a relentless, blunt force. Verhaeghe explained: “Our mindset is just play as simple as we can. Get the puck deep, get on their defense and forecheck, which is our strength.”
Second, the Panthers relish silencing opposing crowds and sending fans home disappointed. “It`s fun when you`re on the road and it goes quiet. It feels like we`re doing our job,” Verhaeghe added.
Aleksander Barkov
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can single-handedly dictate the flow of a period, a game, or even a series. McDavid, for instance, just put up nine points in five games against Dallas.
Florida has a player capable of similar impact in Aleksander Barkov, though he doesn`t receive the same level of breathless praise as the Oilers` stars, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, or Sidney Crosby. He`s only surpassed 90 points once, though his points-per-game rate between 2017 and 2025 (1.11) ranks 12th among all skaters, right between Crosby and Cale Makar. He`s not the most vocal or flashy personality; coach Paul Maurice joked Barkov “is not doing a podcast when he`s done playing.”
While the others mentioned are Hart Trophy candidates, Barkov is a Selke Trophy winner, recently earning his third award as the NHL`s best defensive forward. You generally can`t be both. Since the Selke was introduced in 1977-78, only Sergei Fedorov and Bobby Clarke have won both a Hart and a Selke in their careers. Barkov`s highest finish in MVP voting was sixth in 2020-21.
Yet, he`s just as much a game-changer and series-shifter as any superstar, often starting his impact in the defensive zone. Against Edmonton last postseason, the Panthers outscored the Oilers 5-2 with Barkov on the ice in those seven games, dominating shot attempts and scoring chances.
He can create scoring opportunities out of nothing using his puck control and large frame. Witness the series-clinching goal against Carolina:
Rodrigues said that goal “speaks to who [Barkov] is as a person” after Game 5. “He`s so even-keeled,” Rodrigues noted. “Doesn`t get too high, doesn`t get too low, and just when games get intense and very emotional, he`s able to play his game and just do the right things over and over again.”
This leads to perhaps the most crucial point supporting this prediction.
They`ll Take What Edmonton Gives Them
Perhaps this is hyperbolic, but it feels true: the Panthers seem specifically built to counter the Oilers. They can match Edmonton`s scoring, defend as well as any team in the league, boast impactful stars and effective role players, remain unfazed by hostile road environments, are expertly coached, and play with relentless physicality, swagger, and antagonism. They can both absorb and deliver punishment.
Crucially, they possess a trait shared by great NHL champions: the willingness to win on their own terms or adapt to whatever terms the opponent dictates. Think about the Western Conference finals, where the Dallas Stars seemed to crumble when the Oilers scored first. Think about how Dallas managed only four shots on Skinner in the third period of crucial games, utterly frustrated by their inability to play their preferred style.
The Panthers don`t get rattled. They don`t lose confidence or hope when things aren`t going their way. They maximize every opportunity. They are patient and meticulous where other teams might become harried and panicked. Against a defensively stingy team like Carolina, the Panthers patiently waited for their openings, and when they struck, games changed dramatically. In every win against the Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference finals, Florida scored multiple goals within a four-minute span. They are the NHL`s ultimate “blood in the water” team. In Game 3, it was five goals in 9:08. In Game 5, three goals in 4:36.
“We go into the game, we know exactly what we need to do,” Barkov stated. “The confidence level is high and everyone`s having fun right now.”
Prediction: Panthers in Six
GM Bill Zito and his staff have assembled a team whose core players possess the playoff competence and drive that other franchises desperately try to acquire at the trade deadline. The Panthers don`t need external “rings in the room”; most of them already have one. Playoff self-assurance is simply part of their hockey identity.
Their “win at all costs” approach has earned them critics but also three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final.
Based on their recent performance and advantages in this matchup, it will earn them a second straight skate with Stanley. And if I`m wrong, then Connor McDavid gets his championship moment, which would also be awesome.
