Power plays are incredibly effective in the NHL this season, reaching levels of dominance not seen in decades.
Data from ESPN Research shows that the average power-play conversion rate this season is 21.6% as of Tuesday night`s games. This is the highest rate since the 1985-86 season, when Wayne Gretzky`s Edmonton Oilers were renowned for their power-play prowess.
This high success rate is part of an ongoing trend. If it continues, this season will mark the third consecutive year with power-play conversion rates exceeding 21%, a streak not seen since the mid-1980s.
However, there`s a counter-trend: power plays themselves are becoming increasingly rare in the NHL.
In the 2024-25 season, teams are averaging just 2.71 power-play opportunities per game. This is the lowest average since the NHL began tracking this statistic in 1977-78. The previous low was 2.89, recorded in both the 2021-22 and 2020-21 seasons. This is also a multi-year trend, with the NHL averaging fewer than three power-play chances per team per game in five of the last seven seasons.
The scarcity of power plays is directly linked to fewer penalty calls. The average number of penalties called per team per game is at a 20-year low for an 82-game season, with an average of 3.48 penalties and just 8.15 penalty minutes.
In comparison, the 2014-15 season saw averages of 4.03 penalties and 9.86 penalty minutes.
So, where have all the penalties gone?
New Jersey Devils center Cody Glass jokingly remarked, “If I talk about it, I`ll probably get a bunch of penalties tonight. Honestly, I have no idea. Some games have hardly any penalties, and others have a lot. It varies wildly.”
Many players are even unaware of the decline in power plays.
Calgary Flames winger Blake Coleman admitted, “I didn`t realize it until I read about it. I haven’t really noticed a significant change.”
Conversations with NHL players, executives, data analysts, and former referees have revealed several theories about why penalties and power plays are at historic lows this season.
Here are six of the most compelling theories:
1. The Impact of Parity
As of Thursday night, a significant 14 out of 16 teams in the Eastern Conference were either in a playoff position or within six points of one. A similar situation is developing in the Western Conference due to the St. Louis Blues` improved performance, with 11 teams in playoff contention or close to a wild card spot.
In such a closely contested league where many teams believe they can make the playoffs, every point is crucial. According to Stephen Walkom, NHL executive vice president and director of officiating, this high level of parity is contributing to the decrease in penalties and power plays.
“With such competitive balance in the league, teams are extremely cautious about taking penalties,” Walkom explained.
The fear of letting the team down also plays a role.
Coleman noted, “No one wants to be the player sitting in the penalty box. The decrease in penalties makes sense because of the parity. With so many teams fighting for playoff spots, every point is incredibly important.”
Dave Jackson, ESPN`s NHL rules analyst and a former NHL referee of over 40 years, has observed a change in player behavior as games become more critical in the standings.
“Many teams have been playing with a playoff mentality for some time now,” Jackson stated. “Early in the season, many penalties are due to carelessness or retaliation. But in playoff-like games, you see fewer lazy or retaliatory penalties. Instead, penalties are more often the result of desperation or accidental fouls from intense competition.”
Given the tight standings, teams have been operating in playoff mode for a considerable period.
2. Rule Reinforcement and Player Discipline
Penalty calls have been on a slight decline for the second year in a row, though the difference between the last two seasons is minimal. However, a more significant trend is the substantial decrease in penalties per game since the 2005-06 season.
In 2005-06, minor penalties averaged 6.49 per team per game. By 2010-11, this had dropped to 4.05, and further to 3.66 by 2015-16. This season, the average is even lower at 3.18.
From 2010-11 to 2014-15, minor penalties averaged 3.84 per game, compared to 3.34 over the last five seasons.
What has caused this 20-year decline in penalties?
Walkom credits the players, “I think the players deserve the most credit. After 15 years of being penalized for hooking and slashing hands, players learn not to do it. Players are likely more disciplined and more careful to avoid penalties.”
Each preseason, players are briefed on officiating standards. Tomas Tatar, a 14-year NHL veteran, believes these consistent reminders and emphasized rules impact player behavior.
“They consistently warn us against stick work around the gloves and hooking. Protecting players` hands is a major point of emphasis. Calls are immediately made for stick infractions near or on the hands,” Tatar explained.
“You have to adjust. Either you adapt, or you’ll keep getting penalized.”
This ongoing emphasis on specific penalties and consistent officiating standards may be the reason for the declining penalty numbers.
One NHL executive suggested, “The most compelling reason is that we`ve reached a point where players have adapted to the way the game is officiated.”
There is also an ongoing debate about the ideal number of power plays in a game. Glass mentioned that many players prefer games decided at even strength. “That’s when you see the best hockey. We want the game to flow. Call penalties when they’re obvious, but avoid calling minor, questionable infractions. Physicality is part of hockey,” he said.
3. Are Officials Letting Too Much Go?
Given the long-term decrease in penalty calls, are officials now overlooking too many infractions?
The NHL tracks both penalties called and missed calls. “Our data shows that the percentage of missed calls is not increasing,” Walkom asserted.
Both Walkom and Jackson disagree with the idea that officials are allowing more to go unpenalized.
“Our standard hasn`t changed. We continuously reinforce the NHL standard for every type of penalty. It remains consistent,” Walkom stated. “We encourage our officials to call penalties whenever they occur and not to invent them if they aren`t there.”
Jackson, who has attended numerous NHL preseason officiating camps as both a referee and an analyst, supports this view.
“I’ve heard Gary Bettman address officials, saying, `We invest significantly in training you, showing you videos. You know the standard. If a penalty meets the standard, call it, and you will have our full support.` This has always been his message,” Jackson recounted.
Jackson believes consistency comes from adhering to this standard, not from trying to even out calls or manage the game, as some critics suggest. “It’s about consistently applying the standard. This way, players know what to expect, and penalties are easier to justify,” he said.
4. Cyclical Nature of Penalties
Jackson has observed a cyclical pattern in penalty calls, with highs and lows every decade. “It`s like a wave, oscillating between high and low periods,” he described.
Jackson was officiating during the 2005-06 season, which followed a lockout-cancelled season. The NHL used this period to revise rules and enforcement, aiming to increase scoring, which had reached a low point since 1956.
Legalizing two-line passes was one approach to improve offense, but the most impactful was instructing referees to adopt a `zero tolerance` policy for obstruction penalties like interference, holding, and hooking.
“When we implemented the obstruction standard in 2005, penalties significantly increased,” Jackson recalled.
Power plays per team per game jumped from 4.24 in 2003-04 to 5.85 in 2005-06, the highest since 1987-88. This re-education of players continued until 2008-09, when power plays settled back to 4.16 per game.
Jackson noted that whenever the NHL emphasizes enforcing a specific rule, there`s a power-play spike. He cited the 2017-18 season`s crackdown on slashing and the 2021-22 focus on cross-checking, which both led to increased power-play opportunities.
This cyclical pattern shows that the NHL targets specific infractions, leading to temporary increases in penalties until players adapt.
“It`s almost like cybercrime,” Jackson compared. “Criminals develop a tactic, widespread hacks occur, then authorities find a countermeasure, reducing those incidents. Then, a new tactic emerges, numbers spike again, and eventually, that’s addressed, and numbers fall again.”
Jackson`s theory for the current penalty decline is that the NHL isn’t currently `cracking down` on any particular infraction. There’s no specific point of emphasis like obstruction or cross-checking.
“There’s no current `teachable moment.` The game is where they want it, and players are playing within the rules,” he concluded.
5. Fear of Dominant Power Plays
Historically, top power-play teams like the Edmonton Oilers and Detroit Red Wings are expected to be among the best. However, the most effective power play since 1984-95 belongs to Connor McDavid`s 2022-23 Oilers, converting at an incredible 32.4%.
This season, the 2024-25 Red Wings, led by Dylan Larkin, have the fifth-best power play in the last 40 years at a 29.1% conversion rate. Remarkably, eight of the top ten single-season power-play performances in the last 40 years have occurred between 2018-19 and the current season.
The league-wide power-play conversion rate this season is 21.6%, the highest since 1985-86 (22.2%). Nine teams currently have power-play conversion rates above 25%.
This power-play success is driven by an unusually high 15.1% shooting percentage with the man advantage this season. Since 2005-06, only one season (2022-23) has had an average power-play shooting percentage above 14%.
At recent general managers meetings, the NHL highlighted `offensive trends,` including a league-wide shooting percentage of 10.5% in all situations, the highest in 30 years.
Conversely, penalty kill save percentages are at a 20-year low of .850, even lower than the .860 recorded in the high-penalty 2005-06 season.
During a presentation at the GM meetings, the NHL stated that these high conversion rates are a `significant factor` in the decline of power plays. Gary Meagher, NHL senior vice president, noted, “Teams are wary of taking penalties because of the high success rate of power plays.”
Are officials also aware of this? Are they consciously avoiding giving teams power plays that could decide games?
“No,” Jackson stated firmly.
6. The Speed of the Modern Game
At the GM meetings, the NHL proudly announced that this is the fourth consecutive season with an average of six or more goals per game, a 30-year first.
This scoring increase is due to factors like improved shooting percentages, power-play efficiency, and recent expansion drafts. Long-term, the 2005-06 rule changes promoted offensive play and faster team builds, diminishing the role of slower, less-skilled players.
Tatar observed, “The game is much faster now. Players are less bulky, more agile and quicker. This applies to defensemen too. Everyone can skate well.”
Players suggest that increased speed is a reason for fewer penalties over the last decade. Coleman noted that defenders now rely more on skating ability than obstruction tactics.
“Everyone is such a good skater now. It’s easier to defend using your feet and legs,” he said.
While there`s a perception that the NHL has become younger, data analysis indicates otherwise. The average player age in 2023-24 was slightly higher than in 2013-14. However, Coleman, 33, believes the newer generations have contributed to a cleaner game.
“You see fewer headshots now, for example,” he said. “Players are more aware, and it’s been ingrained in them since they were young not to commit such fouls.”
Playoff Implications
Jackson challenges the notion that playoff games have fewer power plays. “In the first round of the playoffs, there are actually more penalties per game than in the regular season. This is likely because of talent mismatches where outmatched teams take more desperation penalties,” he explained.
Recent success in the playoffs has been linked to strong power plays. Six of the last eight Stanley Cup champions had a top-eight power play in the regular season. Exceptions were the 2019 St. Louis Blues (11th) and the 2023 Vegas Golden Knights (18th).
Current playoff contenders with top-eight power plays include the Golden Knights, Winnipeg Jets, Devils, Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Oilers. The Colorado Avalanche are also close to this group.
Power-play performance is crucial in the playoffs and is a common trait among champions. The current high conversion rates and shooting percentages could very well carry into the postseason.
However, while power-play effectiveness may persist, the reduced number of power plays seen in the regular season might also continue into the playoffs. Data analyst Cam Charron noted that while power-play opportunities increase slightly in the initial games of the first round, they decrease later in playoff series and subsequent rounds.
“Data shows a spike in power plays in the early first-round games, followed by a decline,” Charron wrote.
Ultimately, the postseason might mirror the regular season: high power-play efficiency may be less impactful if power-play opportunities remain scarce.
Additional reporting by Kristen Shilton.
