Gavin McKenna, a 17-year-old hockey phenomenon widely projected to be the first overall pick in the 2026 NHL draft, is poised to make a significant impact on multiple fronts.
For a struggling NHL team fortunate enough to win the draft lottery, he offers a pathway to revival. The NHL also gains another exciting young offensive talent, as he recorded 129 points in 56 games last season with the Medicine Hat Tigers of the Western Hockey League, drawing comparisons to elite wingers like Patrick Kane and Nikita Kucherov.
He embodies promise and the future. However, at present, Gavin McKenna represents a profound shift in hockey: he symbolizes the dramatic transformations among the NCAA, Canadian Hockey League (CHL), and the NHL, which are fundamentally reshaping the progression for aspiring NHL players.
McKenna stunned the hockey world by choosing to leave Canadian junior hockey for Penn State University`s men`s hockey program. He could have remained in the CHL for another dominant season. Instead, he will enter as an 18-year-old freshman, competing in the Big Ten against older, stronger, and more seasoned athletes.
“It was an incredibly difficult decision, with many excellent options available. But my family, my circle, and I ultimately determined that Penn State is the best place for me next year,” he stated when announcing his choice on `SportsCenter.`
McKenna`s pivotal decision comes amidst significant changes for NHL prospects. Last November, the NCAA ruled that Canadian junior players were now eligible for Division I teams, overturning a decades-old policy that forced young athletes to choose between the CHL and college hockey. With the new rules effective in August, McKenna becomes one of the first Canadian junior players, and certainly the most prominent, to transition to the NCAA.
“Gavin is exceptional. He has dominated junior hockey in a way very few have before,” remarked Craig Button, a TSN prospects analyst.
The NCAA`s landmark decision coincided with college hockey programs gaining access to Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) financial incentives for players. Sources indicate McKenna`s NIL earnings for attending Penn State are “in the ballpark” of $700,000. Michigan State, the second choice for McKenna`s commitment, reportedly had an NIL offer of approximately $200,000 to $300,000, according to College Hockey Insider.
The Nittany Lions men`s hockey program joined Division I in 2012, playing independently for one season while its new arena was completed. This arena was primarily funded by Penn State alumnus Terry Pegula, owner of the Buffalo Sabres and Buffalo Bills. Penn State became part of the Big Ten in 2013-14 when the conference began sponsoring hockey.
Penn State hockey has shown consistent improvement. In 2015, Casey Bailey became its first alumnus to debut in the NHL, playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Penn State secured the Big Ten tournament title in 2017 and the regular-season championship in 2020. This past season, the Nittany Lions reached the Frozen Four for the first time, losing to Boston University in the semifinals. Throughout this progression, they benefited from a cutting-edge new facility and a formidable home-ice advantage, fueled by their enthusiastic student section.
“It`s a strong program. Penn State has an excellent setup,” commented Tony Granato, who coached Wisconsin in the Big Ten from 2016 to 2023. “They are beginning to carve out a distinct identity that sets them apart from Michigan, Michigan State, or Wisconsin.”
Now, the program boasts a star player whose name could become synonymous with Penn State hockey.
The Nittany Lions have seen eight players drafted by NHL teams. Last month, defenseman Jackson Smith technically became the first Penn State player selected in the first round, as the No. 14 pick by the Columbus Blue Jackets, despite being an incoming freshman.
Yet, the notion that the program could produce a top NHL draft pick seemed far-fetched, even in the NIL era. Not anymore. Penn State coach Guy Gadowsky credits McKenna entirely for demonstrating such confidence in his program.
“I believe, specifically regarding Penn State, he possesses a pioneering mindset. He wants to be a trailblazer, and I think he`s very comfortable with that pressure,” Gadowsky remarked.
Agent Pat Brisson, who has represented other first overall NHL draft picks like Sidney Crosby (2005, Pittsburgh Penguins), John Tavares (2009, New York Islanders), and Nathan MacKinnon (2013, Colorado Avalanche), is now working with McKenna, alongside Matt Williams, a rising talent at CAA.
“From the outset, Penn State was where he desired to go. It was something he had set his mind on,” Brisson told ESPN. “I`ve learned one thing about these exceptional young players: they possess a unique drive. They have specific goals in mind because they are special for a reason. When I sit with Gavin, I can see in his eyes how his mind operates. It`s truly unique; hard to explain.”
Even more challenging to explain is the future impact of the path chosen by McKenna and other Canadian junior hockey stars on the sport in the coming years.
The Supreme Court`s 2021 decision in NCAA v. Alston established eligibility for non-scholarship earned income across all divisions. This ruling facilitated the creation of NIL allowances in college sports, enabling athletes to profit from their name, image, and likeness while competing in the NCAA.
Last month, the NIL landscape underwent a dramatic shift when three federal antitrust lawsuits concluded with a $2.8 billion settlement. This agreement allows colleges to directly compensate student-athletes up to a certain limit moving forward, with the annual cap for each school expected to begin at approximately $20.5 million in 2025-26.
Brisson clarified that NIL funds were not the sole impetus for McKenna`s decision. “While NIL certainly plays a role, it wasn`t the primary reason he chose college,” he stated. “It`s entirely about the next stage of his development. We, along with his family, viewed this as an opportunity to continue his growth as a player above all else.”
Granato also believed NIL money contributed to McKenna`s choice but was not the decisive factor. The former Wisconsin coach, who played 13 seasons in the NHL, understands what awaits McKenna after next year`s draft, hence his skepticism that NIL money alone determined the outcome.
“Gavin McKenna is set to earn more money than he could ever need in a relatively short period. So, I don`t believe it came down to the financial figures,” he said. “I think it was about the respect and the comprehensive plan Penn State presented to him. Of course, the money indicated their strong desire, but I believe they made a significant commitment to elevating their program to be among the nation`s best.”
Granato noted that Penn State`s benefits extend beyond on-ice performance next season.
“If Gavin McKenna is featured on TV and in the Stanley Cup playoffs for the next two decades, with the Penn State logo alongside him through all his achievements, the value he would bring to the university is immense. In that light, $700,000 or whatever the figure is, seems like a rather modest investment,” he stated.
McKenna`s decision to join the NCAA would have been significantly more complex in the past. The NCAA previously deemed anyone who played in the CHL ineligible due to the presence of players with professional NHL contracts in its constituent leagues: the Ontario Hockey League, Western Hockey League, and Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League. Additionally, CHL players receive a monthly stipend capped at $250.
However, in November 2024, the NCAA Division I council voted to allow CHL players to be eligible for NCAA Division I hockey starting in 2025. The council determined that players can compete in the CHL without jeopardizing their NCAA Division I hockey eligibility, provided they are not “paid more than actual and necessary expenses as part of that participation.”
At the time, Western Hockey League commissioner Dan Near issued a statement supporting the NCAA rules changes, viewing them as a way to “alleviate the tension” for young players and their families facing the choice between junior hockey and NCAA eligibility.
“We stand by that. Just because we`re disappointed that Gavin won`t play in our league next year doesn`t mean our viewpoint on it has fundamentally changed,” Near told ESPN. “We wish Gavin all the best. Medicine Hat had an incredible team, and he contributed greatly to both the community and the league. I hope he achieves tremendous success.”
Near cautioned against drawing broad conclusions solely based on McKenna`s chosen path to the NHL.
“Gavin McKenna`s early departure from the WHL or CHL isn`t indicative of all the other ongoing changes,” he stated. “He`s certainly a notable piece of the puzzle, but we`re currently in such a vast, intricate, and rapidly evolving environment. I think almost everyone would agree that it will take some time to see how things fully unfold.”
Nevertheless, McKenna`s decision has solidified what many anticipate could become a new developmental pathway in hockey: players beginning their careers in the CHL, then transitioning to the NCAA just before or immediately after being drafted into the NHL.
Button believes that McKenna`s chosen route represents this new pipeline. He played 16 games with Medicine Hat in 2022-23, followed by 61 games in 2023-24 (scoring 97 points), and then 56 games last season before moving to Penn State.
“Now, you can ask, `What`s best for my development at 15? Or 16? Or 17?` Many players will choose to play in the CHL because of the high level of play and coaching. But now, they don`t have to sacrifice the opportunity to play in the NCAA,” he explained.
There are distinct differences between the two development paths. The CHL features a significantly higher number of games, preparing players for the demanding schedule of the NHL. The NCAA, conversely, plays fewer games, allowing athletes more time for development and training between contests. The CHL offers competition against peers at similar developmental stages, while the NCAA involves 18-year-olds competing against players as old as 23. The CHL involves a billet family lifestyle, whereas the NCAA offers a traditional college experience.
Button maintains an optimistic outlook on the evolving landscape. “I truly appreciate the notion that more avenues are opening up, providing players with diverse options for their development,” he commented.
He also doesn`t view this as a severe setback for the CHL. He points to NHL stars like Patrick Kane and Matthew Tkachuk, who chose Canadian juniors over the NCAA. He notes that current top prospects who ultimately play in the NCAA will likely do so after significant time in Canadian juniors. McKenna, for instance, spent two and a half seasons with Medicine Hat before his move to Penn State, leading his team to a conference championship and a Memorial Cup appearance last season.
“I know the CHL isn`t keen on losing 19-year-old players to the NCAA, but they will also gain players they wouldn`t have otherwise attracted at 16 and 17,” Button stated.
However, Near does not believe this necessarily signifies a new talent pipeline for NHL prospects.
“I have no issue with people experimenting or trying new approaches. I have no issue with other leagues, perhaps envious of our success or wishing to be considered our equal, attempting to suggest that we should serve as a development league for the NCAA, which would then be a development league for the NHL,” Near stated.
“But that`s not what we are.”
The WHL commissioner highlights the CHL`s superior and extensive 50-year track record in player development. He referenced the 2025 NHL draft, where 21 of the first round`s 32 picks originated from Canadian junior hockey, while only five picks were attributed to U.S. college programs.
“The prospect of someone going to the NCAA before their draft year will be occasional,” Near remarked. “This isn`t solely about money. It`s also about identifying the environment that best positions a player for advanced hockey development.”
He emphasized the billet environment. “Having a supportive mother and father figure to assist with meals, teach life skills like laundry, and foster independence,” he explained.
He also cited the CHL`s schedule and the high number of games players experience in a typical season, noting that former junior players who began their professional careers in the American Hockey League often state the CHL provided the best preparation for that demanding pace.
Near is not content for the WHL to merely rely on its established reputation. This offseason, he is surveying players to gather feedback on what works and what doesn`t. “We are not being complacent, claiming we do it better. We are dedicating considerable time to assessing how we can improve, how we can enhance the player experience and environment,” he affirmed.
This includes considering CHL players who might return to junior hockey after a stint in the NCAA. Several sources anticipate this trend occurring in the new paradigm.
Reasons for such a reversal could range from limited ice time, the realization that they aren`t prepared to face older competition, or the fact that not every 18-year-old “walking onto a college campus, immediately joining the first power play, and earning the most NIL money” will be warmly received by older teammates with their own NHL aspirations, as one NHL source put it.
“NCAA hockey is challenging for many 18- and 19-year-olds,” said Button, who views the option to return to juniors as analogous to a transfer portal.
“There`s a transfer portal in NCAA athletics now. Perhaps less ice time. Perhaps a depth chart where I don`t fit. Perhaps I`m not gaining as much. So now you have the transfer portal between schools, and there will be a transfer portal back to the CHL. That will be the reality,” he predicted.
Another potential complication for Canadians entering the NCAA involves rapidly changing immigration policies that could affect student visa statuses. This issue has been openly discussed by Big Ten schools like Oregon since NIL commenced.
“I`m not wishing for anything to go wrong, but we are structuring our operations to welcome players back if they have regrets,” Near stated.
“I believe there`s a possibility some players will return to our league. I think people might develop a greater appreciation for everything we do to create a player development experience. I wish this understanding would come faster, as it`s a stressful period. But we are monitoring closely and taking action where we deem it appropriate.”
Despite the current stress for Canadian junior hockey, Button does not consider changes to the prospect pipeline to be a net negative for the CHL.
“Some people are saying everything is falling apart. No, it`s not,” he asserted. “Doors are opening for CHL teams to attract good younger players into their programs. The NCAA is gaining more talent from drafted players who now see college hockey as an option. NHL teams also have more choices open to them regarding confirming who they sign. I think that`s excellent.”
As if the prospect landscape hadn`t already undergone sufficient transformation, the NHL and NHLPA further altered it themselves through their new collective bargaining agreement (CBA), set to begin in the 2026-27 season.
A significant modification impacts 19-year-old players drafted by NHL teams from Canadian junior leagues. The existing NHL-CHL transfer agreement mandates that these players either secure a spot on an NHL roster or be sent back to their junior team. Currently, CHL players are not permitted to play in the American Hockey League (AHL) until they reach age 20 or complete four seasons in the CHL.
Under the new CBA, the NHL plans to revise its agreement with the CHL to eliminate the mandatory return rule. “The NHL will aim to restrict NHL Clubs to loaning no more than one (1) 19-year-old player per year to the AHL without first being required to offer such player back to his junior club,” states the new amendment.
Perhaps more critically for the NHL draft, the new CBA stipulates that the rights to players selected at age 18 will be retained until “the fourth June 1 after they were drafted.” For 19-year-old draft picks, their rights will be retained “until the third June 1 after they were drafted.”
Button views this as a crucial new development window for both teams and players, which will influence both junior hockey and the NCAA.
“A team now holds your rights for four years. Previously, in the CHL, you had to sign a player two years after drafting him,” he explained. “In the past, you might have been forced into a signing decision. Now, if a 20-year-old player isn`t quite ready, a team can send him to the NCAA for another year of development while retaining his rights.”
This practice could emerge as one of the most significant developments in the post-NCAA eligibility era: NHL teams potentially utilizing the NCAA as a preparatory league for former Canadian junior players before bringing them to the professional level.
“I believe that because of this, you will see more high-profile players in college hockey,” Gadowsky remarked. “NHL teams will support players going to college hockey for this reason. Many excellent players who have achieved significant success in junior hockey are looking for the next step but might not be ready for the NHL. I think college hockey is an appealing option for many NHL teams.”
This trend is already observable. The Calgary Flames selected center Cole Reschny from the WHL`s Victoria Royals as the No. 18 pick in last month`s draft. Reschny is set to play for North Dakota next season. (His Royals teammate Keaton Verhoeff, a highly-regarded defenseman, will also join him at NoDak as a rare 17-year-old NCAA player.) The New York Rangers drafted winger Malcolm Spence from the OHL`s Erie Otters at No. 43; he will play at the University of Michigan next season.
“CHL and USHL teams have resources and dedicate a lot of time to development, but it`s different at an NCAA school, especially a major powerhouse,” Button stated. “It will be very interesting for 18-year-olds who aren`t NHL-ready to consider returning to junior hockey, and then at 19, the choice was `You`re either in the NHL or you`re back in junior.` Now, the NCAA offers an additional step in their development. You have to be a student-athlete and commit to that. But I believe the NHL also benefits from this.”
McKenna is expected to proceed directly to the NHL after next summer`s draft, a path almost every first overall pick has taken for decades. He will do so after a season of competing against older, larger players before joining the NHL, much like Macklin Celebrini did with Boston University and Auston Matthews with Zurich SC in the Swiss league.
“Players with confidence who are ready for the next challenge won`t be intimidated. They don`t care about potentially falling in the draft. They care about improving,” Granato commented. “If they can improve by playing against older, bigger, and stronger players in a superior league, they will do it. That`s simply their mindset.”
McKenna would be only the fourth winger in the past 15 drafts to be selected first overall, following Nail Yakupov (Edmonton Oilers, 2012), Alexis Lafreniere (New York Rangers, 2020), and Juraj Slafkovsky (Montreal Canadiens, 2022). None of these players garnered the early excitement that McKenna has, which is typically reserved for franchise-level centers among offensive players, such as Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews.
Button does not place McKenna on McDavid`s level, nor does he see him as the pure goal scorer Matthews has become. On the recent scale of NHL first overall picks, he would position McKenna between Macklin Celebrini (San Jose, 2024) and Connor Bedard (Chicago, 2023).
However, Button suggested that McKenna`s NHL comparables, should he fulfill his projected potential, are two former Hart Trophy winners: Patrick Kane and Nikita Kucherov. Both players are prolific scorers, with Kane ranking sixth (492 goals) and Kucherov 22nd (357 goals) among active players. It is their exceptional playmaking ability from the wing that reminds Button of McKenna, who grew up a fan of Kane (and the Blackhawks) in Whitehorse, Yukon.
“The way he can control the game, take over games. I think we play similar styles. Smart hockey players that can slow down the game but speed it up when we want,” McKenna said.
Gadowsky noted that McKenna`s capacity to slow down the play and create at his own pace signifies an elite player who comprehends the game uniquely. Gadowsky himself grew up watching Wayne Gretzky. While he wouldn`t draw a direct comparison between `The Great One` and `The Nittany One,` the inherent way they both process hockey is something unteachable.
“Neither I nor anyone else on our staff thinks like Gavin does. He is a truly exceptional athlete,” he stated. “By no means will I ever try to instruct him on how his mind creates plays. That`s entirely him, and it`s going to be incredibly exciting to witness.”
For Gadowsky, the only coach the program has known since joining the Big Ten, the fact that Penn State fans will be watching McKenna is still somewhat surreal. The Nittany Lions have built success gradually. Securing McKenna`s commitment marks a monumental leap forward for the program, and for college hockey as a whole.
“There are countless passionate Penn State supporters who are genuinely thrilled to watch him play and see his future unfold,” Gadowsky expressed. “I mean, they are going to absolutely adore him, and we are ecstatic that someone of his caliber will be associated with Penn State.”
