Who Needs to Win the Stanley Cup Now? NHL Urgency Index

The 2024-25 NHL season has been eventful, featuring the rise of unexpected contenders for the Stanley Cup and MVP, a thrilling 4 Nations Face-Off, significant trades, impressive winning streaks, and recently, Alex Ovechkin surpassing Wayne Gretzky`s record for career NHL goals.

However, the real hockey season begins on April 19 with the start of the Stanley Cup playoffs. This is when we`ll witness the intense and physical play we`ve come to expect as teams compete for the Cup.

And, of course, there will be immense pressure.

To measure the pressure on each team to win the Cup this year, we`ve developed the Urgency Index. Each playoff team is evaluated on a 0-10 scale (relative to other playoff teams) across categories that indicate their need to win now:

— Contender Status (based on Elo rating odds to win the Cup)

— Market Pressure (based on fanbase and market size)

— Franchise`s Current Cup Drought

— Recent Playoff Disappointments (total postseason wins in the last five years without a Cup)

— Average Roster Age (older age means more pressure)

— Contract Urgency (average remaining years on contracts for the team`s top three players by Goals Above Replacement before free agency).

Since some factors create more urgency, we`ve doubled the weight for contender status, team age, and market pressure, and halved the weight for remaining free agent years (as teams can often re-sign key players if needed). These weighted totals determine our ranking of playoff teams that must win the championship this season.

More: ESPN`s Stanley Cup playoff watch

Jump to a team:
Carolina | Dallas | Edmonton
Los Angeles | Minnesota | Tampa Bay
Toronto | Winnipeg | 8 more teams

1. Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers` chances of winning the Cup have recently decreased, impacting their contender rating – they are currently tied for fifth in ESPN BET`s odds. However, they still top the Urgency Index. As the oldest playoff roster in the league, they aim to secure the first titles for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in a passionate hockey market, ending a Cup drought since 1990, and coming off a Game 7 Finals loss last season.

With upcoming contract extensions needed for McDavid and Evan Bouchard, Edmonton embodies a franchise at its peak competitive window. If not this season, when will they finally win?

Playoff outlook: Likely third in the Pacific, Edmonton is set for a familiar first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Kings, whom they have defeated in the past three seasons.

However, the Oilers are facing injuries to McDavid and Draisaitl, and their 46.2% win rate against strong teams is lower than other top contenders. It would be disappointing to see another season of McDavid`s prime end without a Cup.

2. (tie) Dallas Stars

The Stars` acquisition of Mikko Rantanen at the trade deadline highlights their urgency, further emphasized by their consistent playoff presence since 2020 without reaching the finals. Despite a strong playoff record (third-most wins from 2019-2024 without a Cup), they remain a young team (12th youngest in the league).

With key players like Jake Oettinger, Jason Robertson, and Thomas Harley needing new contracts soon, and captain Jamie Benn`s contract expiring this summer, Dallas might not have a better chance to win the Cup than now, especially after two conference finals losses.

Playoff outlook: Dallas is competing with Winnipeg for the Central Division`s top seed, which is crucial as it determines their first-round opponent: either a wild-card team or the formidable Colorado Avalanche.

While metrics favor Dallas over Colorado, the possibility of an early exit intensifies the pressure on the Stars.

2. (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs

Pressure to win the Cup is constant for the Leafs, who haven`t had a championship parade since 1967. Playing in a large and passionate market, they lead in both `Cup drought` and `market pressure` metrics.

While their relatively young roster suggests future opportunities, and fans are accustomed to disappointment, Mitch Marner`s contract situation adds to the urgency. Winning now is as critical as ever.

Playoff outlook: Likely the second seed in the East, Toronto may face the Ottawa Senators in the first round. They are favored on paper, and improved balance between offense and defense might enhance their postseason potential.

However, for the Leafs, the pressure is not just to win, but to overcome the franchise`s history of playoff misfortune.

4. Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg has an excellent chance to win this season. Despite questions about deep playoff runs (only one series win since 2018 conference finals), the Jets are well-positioned, boasting the league`s top SRS, driven by goalie Connor Hellebuyck.

Our system might underrate them slightly. Their Cup drought is measured from the Atlanta Thrashers era, not just the current Jets. Also, being the smallest market might undervalue their strong fan support for a Canadian Cup.

Playoff outlook: Leading the Central Division, the Jets could face Minnesota in Round 1—a favorable matchup against a team struggling to score without Kirill Kaprizov. The West, however, will be challenging.

Unlike Edmonton, Winnipeg has the best win percentage against strong opponents (73.8%) this season.

5. Los Angeles Kings

The Kings` repeated playoff losses to the Oilers create urgency. Can they finally overcome Edmonton in 2025? This `recent frustration` might be understated as constant early losses limit playoff win accumulation.

Beyond this, uncertainty surrounds their core post-next season, particularly the Anze Kopitar era, in the NHL`s second-largest market. Their recent resurgence needs to translate into deep playoff runs soon.

Playoff outlook: Overcoming Edmonton is crucial for the Kings. Their strong defense (top-5) is hindered by scoring (18th in goals per game), despite Warren Foegele`s 20-goal season after joining from Edmonton.

Hope for a breakthrough against Edmonton lies in their improved form entering this year`s playoffs compared to last year.

6. Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina shares similarities with Dallas: a talented team consistently seeking a Cup breakthrough. Their connection deepened with the Rantanen trade. Surprisingly, Carolina`s urgency index is lower than Dallas`s, despite similar contender status and playoff frustrations (second-most playoff wins, 2018-2024, without a finals trip). The Hurricanes even have an older roster (7th oldest).

Raleigh`s smaller market reduces pressure in our formula, despite strong attendance. Also, smart management by GMs Don Waddell and Eric Tulsky has minimized contract urgency by securing long-term deals with key players like Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov.

Playoff outlook: Carolina faces the New Jersey Devils in Round 1, against a team with injuries but a strong defense (4th in goals allowed per game).

Favored due to their puck-control style, the Canes have performed well against Washington, a potential Round 2 opponent. Another conference finals appearance is possible, along with increased urgency.

7. (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay`s high ranking is largely due to being the fourth-oldest team. Despite additions since their three straight Cup Finals (2020-2022), their core players like Vasilevskiy, Kucherov, and Hedman remain from that era.

Their continued reliance on this core underscores the urgency to win while they are still performing at their peak, as their dominance won`t last forever.

Playoff outlook: Another Battle of Florida against the Panthers is likely. While Florida is the defending champion, Tampa Bay has better goal differential, Elo rating, and player health as playoffs approach.

Unless Tkachuk and Barkov quickly return to form for Florida, Tampa Bay`s early playoff outlook is positive.

7. (tie) Minnesota Wild

The Wild are not typically seen as Cup contenders, so their urgency might seem less obvious. However, despite a low chance of reaching the Final (1%), they score high in other urgency factors. They are the league`s eighth-oldest team and face upcoming contract decisions for key players like Gustavsson, Kaprizov, and Rossi.

In hockey-loving Minnesota, there`s growing pressure for postseason success. In 23 seasons, they`ve won only four playoff series, half in 2003. Franchise success is overdue.

Playoff outlook: Success in 2025 is unlikely. Expected to be a wild-card team, they`ll likely face the Jets or Stars in Round 1 as underdogs. Kaprizov`s injury adds uncertainty to their playoff prospects.

Expectations aren`t high for a deep run, but the team badly needs to win a playoff series.

Ranking the rest

Washington`s unexpectedly strong season, highlighted by Ovechkin`s record, creates Cup pressure. However, their focus on building a post-Ovechkin future reduces their overall urgency. (Plus, they won a Cup recently.)

The rest of the list includes recent champions (Vegas, Florida, Colorado, St. Louis) and long-shot contenders. The Devils and Canadiens are notable: the Devils shifted from young to older, increasing urgency; the Canadiens surprised with a late surge in a major hockey market, but their youth suggests future potential.