Top Players Ranked for the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs

As the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs commenced, several compelling narratives captured attention: Could Connor Hellebuyck follow his exceptional regular season with a historic postseason performance for the Winnipeg Jets, reminiscent of Dominik Hašek? Would the anticipated clash between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars in Round 1 feel like an early Cup Final? After the Edmonton Oilers` close call last season, is this the year Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl finally achieve ultimate victory?

Beyond the specific matchups and team stories, it`s also crucial to evaluate which individual players are poised to make the greatest impact during the playoffs.

This is where the goals above replacement (GAR) metric becomes valuable. It`s a refined version of comprehensive value statistics designed to quantify a player`s overall contribution – whether offensively, defensively, or in goal – compared to an average `replacement-level` player at the same position. GAR also aims to distribute value across positions in a balanced way, typically allocating 60% to forwards, 30% to defensemen, and 10% to goaltenders across the league.

To predict which players might be most impactful entering this year`s playoffs, I utilized GAR within a system inspired by Bill James` `established level` concept. This involves a weighted average of each player`s GAR over the last three regular seasons, giving more weight to the most recent 2024-25 season. To ensure emerging players aren`t unfairly penalized, a safeguard is applied: no player`s established level can be calculated at less than 75% of their most recent season`s GAR.

The outcome represents a mix of peak, recent, and consistent performance – identifying players on playoff teams who have been, are currently, or are still becoming elite, providing insight into who could shape this year`s postseason. Note: Players expected to miss significant or all of the playoffs due to injury were not included.

Based on this analysis, here are the top-ranked skaters and goaltenders from the 2025 playoff teams, evaluated by their three-year established value:

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1. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets

Hellebuyck stands out as the premier goaltender of his generation, significantly outpacing the next closest netminder (Andrei Vasilevskiy) in GAR since the 2017-18 season. He is widely expected to win the Vezina Trophy as the league`s best goalie and has even become a leading candidate for the Hart Trophy as MVP. His remarkable consistency is a key strength; he led the league in quality starts, reaching this standard in a league-best 72% of his appearances. While the Jets face potential challenges, Hellebuyck is their most critical asset if he performs at his usual elite level.

Playoff outlook: Despite his regular-season brilliance, Hellebuyck hasn`t always replicated that performance in the playoffs. Last season, for example, the Jets conceded almost as many goals in their five-game first-round loss to the Colorado Avalanche as they did over the entire 82-game regular season. His save percentage in the last two postseasons has been notably below league average, a stark contrast to his strong regular-season figures. For the Jets to capitalize on their strong season, Hellebuyck will need to elevate his playoff game, perhaps delivering a performance akin to Dominik Hašek`s legendary 1999 run.

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2. Nathan MacKinnon, F, Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche boast significant talent, but MacKinnon`s presence is uniquely electrifying when he`s at top speed with the puck. Although his production slightly decreased in 2024-25 compared to his MVP season the previous year, MacKinnon remains the driving force of Colorado`s high-powered offense. The team`s share of shots at 5-on-5 dramatically improves with him on the ice. Opponents in a playoff series will prioritize finding a way to contain him.

Playoff outlook: A major point of discussion has been the unfortunate reality that either Colorado or the Dallas Stars – both strong Stanley Cup contenders – will be eliminated early due to the league`s playoff format. This means MacKinnon might have a limited time in these playoffs. However, before a potential exit, he and the Avalanche`s offense are well-equipped to challenge Dallas`s defense, which ranked 13th in total GAR during the regular season.

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3. Leon Draisaitl, F, Edmonton Oilers

Continuing the pattern of trading places as the Oilers` top player, Draisaitl stepped up significantly in 2024-25, achieving the best goal-scoring season of his career when adjusted for league scoring trends. He has now remarkably posted at least 104 adjusted points in seven consecutive seasons, joining an exclusive club with only McDavid, Wayne Gretzky, and Phil Esposito in NHL history. Before Hellebuyck`s recent surge, Draisaitl was a strong contender for his second MVP award, and he might still win it.

Playoff outlook: Draisaitl is also a formidable playoff performer, accumulating 81 points in his last 53 postseason games. With the Oilers set for another first-round series against the Kings, Draisaitl will look to continue his dominance against an opponent he has frequently victimized, scoring 17 goals in 18 games against them in their last three playoff meetings.

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4. Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning

By winning his second consecutive (and third overall) Art Ross Trophy as the NHL`s top scorer, Kucherov solidified his status as one of hockey`s most innovative and dangerous offensive threats. His performance has coincided with the Lightning once again appearing to be a major Stanley Cup contender. Powering the league`s top-ranked offense by goals per game, Tampa Bay achieved a better goal differential in 2024-25 than in either of their recent Cup-winning seasons (2019-20, 2020-21). Kucherov was the primary offensive driver, being the only Lightning player to exceed 94 adjusted points (he had 124, his third-highest season total). He is undeniably a special player performing at his peak.

Playoff outlook: As a multiple champion and leading playoff scorer with 167 points in 147 career postseason games, there`s no question about Kucherov`s ability to perform under pressure. He even managed seven points in five games during Tampa Bay`s disappointing first-round loss to the Panthers last year. The Lightning are seeking revenge this year, and Kucherov may find even more success against a Panthers team whose defense has slipped from first to seventh this season.

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5. Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche

Makar`s performance this season suggests he might be the defenseman most capable of winning the MVP award in the modern era – a feat not achieved by a defenseman since Chris Pronger in 2000. Not only did he contend with Hellebuyck for the league lead in GAR for much of the season, but he also became the first defenseman since Paul Coffey in 1985-86 to record at least 30 adjusted goals and 90 adjusted points. Makar`s unique ability to generate offense from the blue line while remaining defensively responsible makes him arguably the best of a talented generation of defensemen.

Playoff outlook: In the high-stakes series between Colorado and Dallas, Makar provides a significant positional advantage for the Avalanche. According to GAR, Colorado possessed the league`s most valuable defense corps this season, led by Makar and including Devon Toews and Sam Girard. Dallas`s defense ranked 13th, with players like Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell receiving less support due to Miro Heiskanen`s injury. This disparity on the blue line could be a deciding factor in what is otherwise a closely matched series.

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6. Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers

Ranking Connor McDavid as low as sixth might seem surprising, but it reflects both the exceptional seasons of other elite players like Hellebuyck and Makar, and a relatively “down” year by McDavid`s own extraordinary standards. He missed 13 games and posted his lowest adjusted goals (27) and adjusted points (102) totals since his rookie season in 2015-16. Additionally, the Oilers` offense finished outside the top 10 for the first time since 2019-20. While this caused him to drop slightly in this ranking, it doesn`t diminish his status among the game`s top stars; if anything, it highlights his essential role in Edmonton`s Cup aspirations.

Playoff outlook: Despite the recent dip in his regular season numbers, it`s still Connor McDavid. He`s the same player who scored the overtime winner in the 4 Nations Face-Off and led all scorers with 42 points in 25 playoff games last spring. This was part of a dominant three-year playoff stretch where he amassed 95 points in 53 games. While the Kings appear stronger on paper than in their previous three first-round losses to the Oilers, it`s still daunting to face McDavid as he pursues a Stanley Cup.

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7. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Tampa Bay Lightning

While Hellebuyck is currently seen as the league`s top goaltender, Vasilevskiy had a career-best season in 2024-25, recording 34.2 goals saved above average and a save percentage significantly better than the league average. A two-time Cup champion, Vasilevskiy has nothing left to prove. However, his exceptional performance this season seemed partly a response to doubts following an uncharacteristically weaker showing in 2023-24, helping to elevate the Lightning to their second-best goal differential of the Jon Cooper era.

Playoff outlook: Few goaltenders in recent history have demonstrated a higher playoff ceiling. Alongside his two Cups, Vasilevskiy boasts 66 career playoff wins, a Conn Smythe Trophy from 2021, and a career playoff save percentage well above average. He remains fully capable of carrying the Lightning deep into the playoffs if he reaches peak form.

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8. Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs

Following an almost-MVP season last year, Matthews navigated early injuries in 2024-25, resulting in his lowest adjusted points (77) since 2018-19 and his lowest adjusted goals (32) total in a full season. He didn`t match his previous season`s average of 0.85 goals per game in any month this year. However, Matthews still ranked among the most effective forwards in terms of driving on-ice shot attempts. His ability to remain in the top 10 of this weighted three-year ranking despite a significant drop in production year-over-year is a testament to his historically high level of play.

Playoff outlook: The playoff spotlight intensely follows Matthews in Toronto. While he`s had strong moments, including five goals and nine points in their 2023 first-round win (ending a long drought), his playoff production hasn`t always matched his regular-season dominance. Since 2016-17, he leads the league comfortably in regular-season goals per game but ranks 12th among qualified players in the postseason over the same period. This is still respectable, but expectations remain high. His performance against Ottawa in Round 1 will be closely watched.

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9. Mikko Rantanen, F, Dallas Stars

Rantanen presents one of the more intriguing storylines for these playoffs. By GAR, he had a unique season, playing for three different teams (Colorado, Carolina, Dallas). His production with the Stars fell between his excellent rate with the Avalanche and his less impactful stint with the Hurricanes. Despite this unusual season, Rantanen is still the well-rounded winger with a powerful shot that we`ve seen excel with Colorado in past postseasons.

Playoff outlook: Significant pressure rests on the Dallas Stars to finally break through and win a Cup, placing a considerable burden on Rantanen, especially given the high price paid to acquire him at the deadline. While it`s not necessarily “now or never” for the relatively young Stars, and Rantanen is committed long-term after signing an extension, an immediate loss to his former team would be seen as a major disappointment after the midseason acquisition excitement.

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10. William Nylander, F, Toronto Maple Leafs

With Auston Matthews` production slightly decreasing, Nylander stepped up in 2024-25, achieving his career-best goal-scoring season with 47 adjusted goals and leading the Maple Leafs with 19.8 GAR in the first year of his new contract. He balanced this by slightly reducing his playmaking, with his fewest adjusted assists since 2020-21. However, he maintained his reputation for consistency, exceeding a point per game in five out of seven months during the season.

Playoff outlook: Nylander has been a consistent playoff performer, averaging roughly a point per game (28 points, 15 goals in 29 games) over the last four postseasons. He even overcame early struggles with migraines last year to score key goals late in the Boston series. While Ottawa boasts a strong defense, Nylander is expected to be a significant offensive threat regardless.

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11. Brayden Point, F, Tampa Bay Lightning

Brayden Point is one of the most reliable players in the NHL, consistently delivering strong production across goals, assists, points, and GAR over the past three seasons. As the center for a line featuring Nikita Kucherov, Point`s finishing ability and playmaking perfectly complement Kucherov`s elite creativity. Despite a slight dip in on-ice shot attempt share, Point`s overall impact was positive, highlighted by a significant improvement in his plus/minus rating. He is a linchpin for Tampa Bay`s offense.

Playoff outlook: Point was exceptional during Tampa Bay`s two Cup wins, scoring 28 goals and 56 points in 46 games in the 2020 and 2021 postseasons. While his points-per-game pace has slightly decreased since then, he still averaged a point per game in last year`s first-round loss to the Panthers. With Florida`s defense appearing less dominant this year, Point is expected to play a crucial role in the Lightning`s quest for another championship.

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12. Sam Reinhart, F, Florida Panthers

After revitalizing his career in Florida over a couple of seasons, Reinhart had a breakout year last season, leading the eventual champion Panthers during the regular season with impressive goal, point, and GAR totals. While the anticipated regression occurred this season, his numbers still remained strong enough to lead the defending-champion Panthers in key offensive categories. This was partly due to injuries impacting Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov, but primarily because Reinhart has established himself as one of the NHL`s most valuable all-around forwards.

Playoff outlook: Surprisingly, given his regular-season success, Reinhart was tied for only fourth in playoff scoring for the Panthers during their 2023 and 2024 Cup Finals runs, averaging below a point per game. This might be partly because his power-play scoring is less effective in the postseason when man advantages are fewer. However, the Panthers are more dependent on Reinhart now than ever, and he will need to improve his playoff production if they hope to repeat as champions.

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13. Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers

Following his significant breakthrough season at age 24, Bouchard continued his strong play on the Oilers` blue line in 2024-25. While perhaps not discussed in the same tier as Makar or Quinn Hughes, he possesses one of the league`s hardest shots and excels at moving the puck, crucial for Edmonton`s transition game. He also ranked among the top defensemen in limiting opponent shot attempts. Despite some areas for improvement, Bouchard has solidified his position as a vital part of the Oilers` core alongside Draisaitl and McDavid.

Playoff outlook: Bouchard`s breakout extended into the 2023-24 playoffs, where he was outstanding with 32 points in 25 games and a league-best plus-14 rating. Although his frequent partner Mattias Ekholm is injured for at least Round 1, which could affect Bouchard`s comfort level, he was highly effective against the Kings last postseason. He is likely to be a challenge for Los Angeles again in the opening series.

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14. Josh Morrissey, D, Winnipeg Jets

If Evan Bouchard tends to be overlooked, Josh Morrissey often struggles to gain recognition at all, despite completing his third consecutive strong season for Winnipeg. Over the past three seasons combined, only Makar and Hughes have accumulated more GAR than Morrissey, placing him ahead of prominent defensemen like Adam Fox, Bouchard, Rasmus Dahlin, and Victor Hedman. Known for his skating and hockey sense, Morrissey has enhanced his offensive contributions as he entered his prime, becoming the anchor for the blue line of the league`s best regular-season team.

Playoff outlook: Similar to the Jets as a whole, Morrissey, who has 14 career points in 42 playoff games, needs to prove his improved play translates to the postseason. While he scored three goals against Colorado last spring, his defensive impact was limited, and the Jets` defense struggled as the series progressed. As one of the top all-around defensemen in the regular season, it`s partly Morrissey`s responsibility to ensure the team`s defense holds strong in the playoffs.

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15. Filip Gustavsson, G, Minnesota Wild

Gustavsson has experienced a fluctuating performance over the last three seasons. After moving from Ottawa to Minnesota in 2022-23, he established himself as a top backup alongside Marc-André Fleury. He then had a significant downturn last season before rebounding strongly in 2024-25 as the Wild`s primary starter. His 39 quality starts ranked third in the league, highlighting his steady presence for a playoff team that ranked low in scoring. Notably, Gustavsson led the league in goals saved above average on `low danger` shots, demonstrating the importance of stopping seemingly easy opportunities consistently.

Playoff outlook: Entering this postseason, Gustavsson had limited playoff experience, with only five starts in 2023, where he performed well. The Wild are likely underdogs against the heavily favored Golden Knights in Round 1, and their chances for an upset heavily rely on Gustavsson delivering exceptional goaltending to steal the series.

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16. Mitch Marner, F, Toronto Maple Leafs

Mitch Marner is remarkably consistent, rarely deviating from his typical production levels. However, this season he set a career high with 102 adjusted points by slightly altering his game. Previously, his playmaking had decreased relative to his goal scoring, but in 2024-25, he significantly increased his adjusted assists to a career-best 75. This occurred despite often playing on a line with Matthews, whose goal production dropped from the previous season. Overall, Marner had a strong season heading into potential free agency.

Playoff outlook: A late-season ankle injury affected Marner last year, contributing to his much-debated playoff struggles where he recorded one goal and three points in seven games against Boston. However, it`s important to remember he had 14 points in 11 games in the playoffs before that and entered the 2024 postseason with 47 points in 50 career playoff games. While massive pressure is on Marner and the Maple Leafs, he is coming off one of his best seasons and his playoff history isn`t as poor as sometimes portrayed. His performance against Ottawa will be key.

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17. Jason Robertson, F, Dallas Stars

Jason Robertson ranks highly partly because his exceptional 2022-23 season, which included elite goal, point, plus/minus, and GAR numbers, is still significantly weighted in the three-year average. Since then, while still very good, his performance has settled below the heights of his age-23 campaign. Nevertheless, Robertson remains one of the NHL`s most effective all-around forwards, maintaining strong offensive output despite starting a career-high percentage of shifts in the defensive zone. Dallas is a less effective team without Robertson`s leadership, and his absence for the start of the series against Colorado due to a lower-body injury is a blow.

Playoff outlook: Robertson has posted solid numbers in the last two postseasons, with 13 goals and 34 points in 38 games, including seven assists against the Avs in last year`s second-round win. However, he could benefit from more consistency, particularly in goal scoring, as he was held scoreless in many of his recent playoff contests. Despite his injury absence to start, Dallas is a stronger overall team than Colorado (ranking higher defensively), a reflection of the comprehensive game Robertson brings when healthy.

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18. Linus Ullmark, G, Ottawa Senators

Linus Ullmark is another player whose ranking is boosted by a standout performance a few years ago – his incredible 2022-23 season with the Boston Bruins. While he hasn`t quite matched that otherworldly form in his subsequent seasons, including his first with the Senators in 2024-25, Ullmark has been consistently solid. He posted a save percentage significantly better than league average this season despite facing the league`s 13th-most shots per game and the highest rate of rush attempts at 5-on-5. Despite the pressure, Ullmark backstopped the Senators to their first playoff appearance since 2017, ending a long drought.

Playoff outlook: Ullmark`s playoff resume is limited, with only nine starts and a career save percentage significantly below average, including a tough showing during the Bruins` collapse against Florida in 2023. The Senators are clear underdogs against Toronto. While an upset is a long shot, it`s plausible that Ullmark can perform better than his previous playoff history suggests, even against an offensive team like the Maple Leafs.

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19. Sebastian Aho, F, Carolina Hurricanes

Aho`s numbers saw a slight dip from the previous year, and he is often overlooked in favor of flashier players with higher goal or point totals. However, he still extended his streak of seasons with over 30 adjusted goals to eight, while largely retaining the playmaking improvements he showed last season. Aho provides the Hurricanes with a comprehensive game, excelling in shooting, passing, defense, penalty killing, and driving Carolina`s relentless puck-possession style. If this core group is to finally win the Cup, Aho`s elevated play will be essential.

Playoff outlook: Predictably, Aho is a very consistent playoff performer. He has reached double digits in points in all six of his career postseason runs, accumulating 27 goals and 70 points with a strong plus/minus rating in 74 playoff games. The Hurricanes` first-round opponent, the New Jersey Devils, are a strong defensive team, but Aho thrives in coach Rod Brind`Amour`s system, which emphasizes maintaining possession and capitalizing on opportunities.

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20. Victor Hedman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning

Fortunately, Victor Hedman has moved past a mid-career slump. The imposing 6-foot-7 defenseman, known for his powerful shot and strong defensive play, has rebounded from a down season a few years ago to deliver two excellent seasons, including a vintage performance in 2024-25. His resurgence has mirrored the Lightning`s return to contender status. While contributing significantly to Tampa Bay`s top-ranked offense, Hedman also anchored the defense in front of Andrei Vasilevskiy, leading the team in ice time for a defense that allowed the fourth-fewest goals in the league.

Playoff outlook: As the 2020 Conn Smythe Trophy winner and ranking 12th all-time in playoff scoring among defensemen, Hedman`s playoff credentials are unquestionable. He will face the familiar challenge of containing Florida`s dangerous and physical forwards – the Panthers and Lightning have ended each other`s seasons in three of the last four years. However, few active defensemen inspire more confidence in a high-pressure game than Hedman.

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Remaining Players in the Top 50 (Based on provided text up to #35):

Here are players ranked 21 through 35:

21. Jake Guentzel, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
22. Kyle Connor, F, Winnipeg Jets
23. Brandon Hagel, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
24. Jack Eichel, F, Vegas Golden Knights
25. Kirill Kaprizov, F, Minnesota Wild
26. Adrian Kempe, F, Los Angeles Kings
27. Darcy Kuemper, G, Los Angeles Kings
28. Mark Scheifele, F, Winnipeg Jets
29. Jesper Bratt, F, New Jersey Devils
30. Matthew Tkachuk, F, Florida Panthers
31. Jake Oettinger, G, Dallas Stars
32. John Tavares, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
33. Alex Ovechkin, F, Washington Capitals
34. Roope Hintz, F, Dallas Stars
35. Nico Hischier, F, New Jersey Devils

Note: The provided text excerpt ended at player #35. Therefore, the ranking list could only be completed up to that point.