Entering April, the Toronto Maple Leafs are in a familiar situation, having qualified for the Stanley Cup playoffs for the ninth consecutive season. Both the team and their fans are hoping that this is where the pattern breaks, aiming to overcome the playoff disappointments of the past decade.
If the Maple Leafs secure the Atlantic Division title, they are likely to face the Ottawa Senators in the first playoff round. While the Senators are a capable team, they are not considered to be at the level of the Tampa Bay Lightning or Florida Panthers, making the Maple Leafs the favorites in this potential matchup. Anything less than a series victory would be seen as a significant setback and could trigger substantial changes in the offseason.
Failing to advance beyond the initial rounds of the playoffs would mean that the core group of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly would have experienced three different head coaches and three distinct systems without achieving meaningful playoff success.
The question remains whether head coach Craig Berube`s strategies will guide them to prioritize scoring from closer ranges, which is typical in playoff hockey, or if the team`s scoring difficulties and playoff failures will persist.
Offensive and Goaltending Adjustments
Under former coach Sheldon Keefe, the Maple Leafs were consistently strong during the regular season. Keefe identified the reasons for their playoff shortcomings but struggled to get the team`s key players to adapt their approach. Since taking over, has Berube brought about a fundamental shift in the team`s gameplay? Observations suggest a greater emphasis on forechecking, sustained offensive zone pressure, and attacking the net-front, contrasting with the previous focus on rush-based, high-skill, and fast-paced plays.
Historically, the Maple Leafs have had trouble scoring in the playoffs because their offensive style was not suited to the nature of playoff goals. Elaborate passes and highlight-reel plays are less common in the playoffs, where success is more about inside positioning, creating traffic in front of the net, and scoring `greasy` or `garbage` goals.
The tactical differences between Keefe and Berube are pronounced. The Maple Leafs are not dictating the game`s tempo as much as they did under Keefe and are involved in more games with fewer goals. In Keefe`s final season (2023-24), Maple Leafs games averaged 6.81 total goals, compared to 6.19 under Berube. Last season, Toronto was second in the league in goals per game (3.63) and scoring chances per game (18.09). Currently, they are ninth in goals per game (3.26) and 22nd in scoring chances (14.55), according to Stathletes data.
Berube is implementing a more direct offensive approach for the Maple Leafs, emphasizing forechecking, puck retrieval, and sustained puck pressure. This strategy resembles a dump-and-chase style, which is a notable change from Keefe`s possession-oriented system. Toronto was among the top teams in possession time under Keefe but ranks 20th under Berube. A significant change is in how Toronto scores goals. Their rush chances have significantly decreased, from second in the NHL last season (17.5 per game) to 15th this season (14.5).
However, an interesting exception is that Toronto is among the top four teams in breakaways created, and Nylander notably leads the NHL with 18 rush goals. Last season, only 7.7% of the Maple Leafs` goals were scored directly off rebounds, ranking last in the NHL. Under Berube, this has increased to 10% of their goals, as per Stathletes.
Defensively, there have been significant improvements. In Keefe`s last season, the Maple Leafs conceded 3.18 goals per game with a team save percentage of .893. They averaged 32.5 shots for and 29.8 shots against per game. Under Berube, these averages have shifted to 28.2 shots for and 29.3 shots against. The key difference is that Toronto is now allowing 7% fewer scoring chances per game due to a stronger focus on defense. Berube is against a high-paced, back-and-forth style of play, so while Nylander still gets his breakaways, consistent rush chances are less frequent. Last season, Toronto had a +2.11 differential in scoring chances per game, which has dropped to -0.34 this season.
The Maple Leafs are now playing in closer games and creating more favorable scenarios for their goaltenders. Anthony Stolarz is ranked fourth in goals saved above expected (13.26), according to Stathletes. Toronto has the highest winning percentage in one-goal games in the NHL, indicating improved comfort and effectiveness in tight defensive situations, which is crucial for playoff success.
A Reconstructed Defense
Berube`s system is most effective with defensemen who are physical and defensively focused. Maple Leafs General Manager Brad Treliving has reshaped the defensive lineup to align with Berube’s preferred style. He retained Jake McCabe and added Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo, Simon Benoit, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to a defense corps led by Morgan Rielly.
Berube’s defense in St. Louis included Colton Parayko, Jay Bouwmeester, Joel Edmundson, Robert Bortuzzo, and Carl Gunnarsson. There are clear parallels between these players and the current Maple Leafs defensemen. They are characterized by their size, physicality, and shot-blocking abilities, with a strong defensive orientation. While the Maple Leafs may not get significant offensive contributions from their defense, they have become more stable defensively.
It is well known that playoff hockey is a different game, favoring toughness over pure skill. Increased physicality is allowed, and minor penalties often go uncalled in the postseason. The Maple Leafs have historically struggled to draw penalties and have not been particularly physical themselves. The newly acquired defensemen have a history of increasing physicality in the playoffs and will contribute to the team`s physical game. Treliving and Berube had a clear strategy, and the team’s roster now aligns with their intended play style—with one notable exception.
Perhaps the most striking similarity between Berube`s teams in St. Louis and Toronto is the relatively limited offensive output from Rielly and Vince Dunn. Dunn, an offensive defenseman in St. Louis, did not truly excel until he joined the Seattle Kraken. Rielly`s reduced offensive production has been a significant point of discussion, as he is the defenseman most affected by Berube`s system. He thrives in an offensive system that encourages activation and rush plays, similar to Dunn in Seattle and Rielly under Keefe.
Dunn averaged less than 18 minutes of ice time per game under Berube. In Seattle, he averages over 22 minutes per game, and his offensive output has almost doubled, from 102 points in 267 games with the Blues to 180 points in 268 games with the Kraken. In comparison, Rielly`s production has decreased from 202 points in 274 games under Keefe (0.74 points per game) to 35 points in 74 games under Berube (0.47 points per game). While Rielly may not be performing at his usual level, there is evidence suggesting that Berube`s system tends to limit offensive defensemen.
Playoff Success: Will It Translate?
One unpredictable factor is the perceived `curse` associated with the Maple Leafs. There is no statistical or logical explanation for the playoff struggles that seem to plague the team, similar to the historical curses of the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs before they broke through. The Maple Leafs have a history of playoff disappointments.
Many observers have questioned whether the current core group has the resilience needed to succeed in the playoffs. Berube’s coaching style appears to be more conducive to playoff success. However, the recent playoff issues for the Maple Leafs have not been primarily defensive; the main problem has been a drop in scoring.
In the playoffs, a fast-paced, back-and-forth game is less feasible due to tighter checking and stricter officiating. The Maple Leafs’ shift in play style under Berube has better prepared them for playoff hockey. A strong defense and an offense driven by a relentless forecheck that wears down opponents are more effective strategies. This style makes opponents uncomfortable because it is more physically demanding; players handle the puck differently when they anticipate intense pressure and physical engagement along the boards.
For the Maple Leafs to achieve playoff success, three key conditions must be met:
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Goaltending must be strong.
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Defensive play must remain solid.
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Top offensive players must generate more scoring opportunities in high-danger areas.
Throughout the season, the Maple Leafs have developed habits of effective forechecking, puck pursuit, and defensive commitment. Success in the playoffs will depend on executing these principles: consistently challenging for pucks, making the extra effort to clear the puck in tough situations, winning net-front battles for crucial goals, and completing forechecks to tire out opponents. High-speed, rush-based plays will be rare.
These habits have been instilled in the players since Berube’s arrival. Now, it is up to them to demonstrate their ability to perform when it matters most.
