David J., a professional sports bettor, spends his nights analyzing live box scores instead of watching the games themselves. Confident in his betting advantage, game outcomes don`t stress him. He sometimes plays online poker as his sports bets are decided. However, December 2, 2024, was different.
In Minnesota, the Lakers were losing to the Timberwolves by 15 points in the fourth quarter, a situation concerning for David J.`s reputation and finances. LeBron James was having an unusually low-scoring game. David J., in his Iowa basement, started watching the game.
Earlier, he noticed FanDuel offering bets on James scoring at least 10 points each game. Thinking, `It`s LeBron, he`ll score 10,` he began placing bets at unfavorable odds. In December, for amusement, he publicized his large bets for small potential wins if James scored 10+ points.
On December 1st, a screenshot of his $10,125 bet at -1800 odds for a $562 profit on James scoring 10 against the Jazz went viral, getting 3.3 million views on X. He boasted to friends and online commenters who questioned his strategy. He gloated when the bet won in the second quarter.
`I laughed at those calling me an idiot, which might be true,` David J. admitted, using only his first name and last initial. `I don`t care if it sounds lame, the millions of views were cool. It was fun.`
The next night, December 2nd, was tenser. James, who had scored 10+ points in every game since 2007, had only seven with 12 minutes left against the Timberwolves. An early exit and streak ending seemed possible. David J. was anxious about his $9,000 bet and potential social media criticism if fans blamed him for jinxing the streak.
`It would have been incredibly embarrassing. I thought LeBron fans would attack me if the streak ended because of my bet. I was very nervous,` he chuckled. `It was fun, but nerve-wracking.`
James made a layup with 11:24 left and a free throw two minutes later, reaching 10 points before leaving the game with seven minutes remaining and the Lakers down by 25. David J. was relieved, avoiding online mockery and winning $562.50.
The LeBron 10-Point Betting Market`s Rise
This high-stakes betting market, centered on an NBA legend, often sees six-figure action, pitting professional bettors against each other on whether James will score 10 points.
FanDuel stopped game-by-game betting on this in mid-December, offering odds on James continuing the streak for the season instead. They set James at -6000 to score 10+ points in remaining games before a groin injury on March 8th against the Celtics sidelined him. James scored 22 points before exiting that game.
With traditional sportsbooks ceasing game-by-game bets, wagering moved to peer-to-peer sites like ProphetX, where users trade sports outcomes with virtual currency instead of betting against the house.
Jake Benzaquen, ProphetX co-founder, stated they see `six figures in Prophet Cash traded most nights` from many customers, from large `Yes` bettors at -5000 odds to small `No` bettors at 50-1 or longer odds.
David J. claims about $42,000 in winnings betting `yes` on James this season. His largest single bet was $74,275 at -7000 odds on Christmas Day against the Warriors.
`HE MIGHT CASH FIRST QUARTER,` he posted during that game. `YOU GUYS ARE SO STUPID.`
He won $1,250 by the second quarter when James surpassed 10 points with a 3-pointer.
Betting Against LeBron
Chris D., a hedge fund analyst and bettor in his mid-20s, has taken the opposite side of David J.`s bets. He believes streak hype inflates odds and has bet against James scoring 10 points in some games this season.
`I`ve lost over $10,000 on it,` Chris D. said, also only using his first name and last initial.
He argues value exists betting against the streak at 65-1 or longer, estimating the real chance of James not scoring 10 points at 2%, or 50-1. He used AI to analyze NBA injury rates, James` age (40), and durability, focusing on James` motivation to maintain the streak.
`This is my main difference,` Chris D. explained. `I think LeBron wants the streak to continue, but he already has the record. It`s less important now. It`s not as crucial as people believe.`
`I`m not a LeBron hater,` he added. `It`s about the price for me.`
David J. disagrees, convinced James is highly motivated to continue the streak. He believes the odds of James not scoring 10 points are less than 1%, closer to 120-1. James has scored under 10 points in 8 of 1,550 regular-season games, or 0.52%.
Both bettors essentially bet on the chance of James getting injured early in a game. On March 20, 2021, James injured his ankle early in the second quarter against the Hawks, having seven points. Despite the injury, he played one more possession, made a 3-pointer to reach 10 points, and then exited, missing the next 17 games due to the ankle injury.
James returned from his groin injury on Saturday in a loss to the Bulls, scoring 17 points, securing another win for David J.
`If he gets to eight points, he`ll reach 10,` David J. stated. `He`ll get a basket.` David J. has improved his betting setup since December, now betting in Arizona. He notes the LeBron 10-point prop market has become more liquid since his social media posts, but prices have increased.
`You can still bet big most game days,` he said. `Just at higher prices.`
Even with prices rising to -7000, risking $7,000 to win $100, David J. finds it worthwhile and plans to keep betting on James as much as possible, despite critics.
`Being on the -7000 side is nice,` he concluded. `Even if it`s a bad bet, there`s a good chance to gloat over those who initially mocked me.`
