Sleepers and Busts: Who to Draft and Who to Avoid in Fantasy Hockey

Fantasy hockey managers who skillfully identify undervalued players and avoid drafting busts significantly boost their chances of winning a championship. The challenge lies in pinpointing these players, considering their skill, available opportunities, health status, and career trajectory to predict their unexpected rise.

This season, our approach deviates from simply analyzing a player`s fantasy potential versus their preseason rank. We`re also factoring in their Average Draft Position (ADP) and less obvious aspects like reputation and name recognition. It`s clear that someone like Mitch Marner is valued higher than his No. 52 forward ranking implies. Our focus here, however, is on highlighting potential `sleeper` candidates who might otherwise go unnoticed.

A quick note: This analysis excludes rookies. While promising first-year players such as Jimmy Snuggerud, Rutger McGroarty, and Sam Rinzel are certainly noteworthy, they are being covered extensively elsewhere. This list focuses on a dozen players who have completed at least one full season, alongside a few who are expected to underperform relative to their current draft positions.

Lukas Dostal, G, Anaheim Ducks (No. 23 goaltender)

Now that John Gibson has moved to Detroit, the 25-year-old Lukas Dostal becomes the clear starting goaltender for an improving Anaheim Ducks team. Key offseason acquisitions like Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund, alongside burgeoning talents Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier, bolster the team. The coaching staff also strengthens with the presence of Joel Quenneville and new assistant Ryan McGill, known for his defensive expertise. This defensive improvement is excellent news for Dostal. He is projected to achieve career-best statistics, starting at least 55 games in the 2025-26 season. Drafting Dostal as your third goaltender could yield significant fantasy benefits.

Andrei Kuzmenko, F, Los Angeles Kings (No. 230 forward)

Playing on a scoring line and the top power play unit with a center like the future Hall-of-Famer Anze Kopitar is an enviable position. Andrei Kuzmenko, who tallied 5 goals and 12 assists in 22 games after his trade to the Kings last winter, knows this firsthand. While he may not replicate his 74-point (39-goal) performance from his rookie season in Vancouver, a 65-plus point season alongside Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, with many points coming on the power play, is a realistic expectation. Managers should verify his linemate placement at the season`s start.

Cole Perfetti, F, Winnipeg Jets (No. 155 forward)

Cole Perfetti, a promising sleeper for the 2025-26 season, is poised for a significant breakout. Now in his fourth full year, and with Nikolaj Ehlers having departed for Carolina, the 23-year-old is expected to skate on the second scoring line and, crucially, secure a full-time role on the top power play with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. He is projected to exceed 65 points this season.

Matias Maccelli, F, Toronto Maple Leafs (No. 138 forward)

Should Matias Maccelli, formerly of Utah, solidify a spot on the Maple Leafs` top line in Mitch Marner`s previous role, as early projections suggest, he could have a career-defining year. Playing regularly alongside Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies guarantees significant offensive production, far surpassing the 17 goals and 40 assists he recorded with the Coyotes two seasons ago. Even if he lands on the second line with John Tavares and William Nylander, it`s still an excellent opportunity. Overall, the 24-year-old should be optimistic about his potential in Toronto.

Mathew Barzal, F, New York Islanders (No. 117 forward)

After an injury-plagued season last year where he managed only 20 points in 30 games, Mathew Barzal is reportedly feeling mentally and physically recharged. Now fully healthy and in his prime, Barzal has the potential to return to a point-per-game pace, reminiscent of his 80 points in 80 games just two seasons prior.

Will Cuylle, F, New York Rangers (No. 87 forward)

Despite rumors placing him in contention for the Rangers` captaincy before J.T. Miller earned it, Will Cuylle, now in his third season, faces high expectations. These include projections for 30 goals and 30 assists. Add in a healthy shot volume and an impressive 300 hits from last season, and the 23-year-old is set to be a significant fantasy asset in deeper, balanced leagues. A full-time role on a scoring line with Miller and Mika Zibanejad, complemented by secondary power-play opportunities, further solidifies his potential. Cuylle may not be a widely recognized name outside New York yet, but that is likely to change soon.

Trevor Zegras, F, Philadelphia Flyers (No. 106 forward)

Some players benefit immensely from a fresh start, and Trevor Zegras`s move from Anaheim to Philadelphia appears to be just that. His worst-case scenario is a spot on the second scoring line and top power play; however, a role on the first line with Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny is also a strong possibility. How new coach Rick Tocchet deploys Zegras during training camp will be crucial to monitor. At just 24 years old, Zegras possesses 70-point potential, and his new environment positions him to become a valuable asset in deeper fantasy leagues.

Morgan Geekie, F, Boston Bruins (No. 136 forward)

Morgan Geekie, a 27-year-old winger, quietly amassed 57 points in 77 games for the Bruins last season. Notably, 22 of those points came in the final 14 games, following Brad Marchand`s departure to Florida. A full season playing on the top forward line and power play alongside center Elias Lindholm and superstar David Pastrnak is expected to propel Geekie to around the 70-point mark.

JJ Peterka, Utah Mammoth (No. 79 forward)

After leaving Buffalo, JJ Peterka is set to join Utah Mammoth, where a scoring line role with Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, plus power play time alongside Clayton Keller, should enable him to achieve at least 70 points for the first time in his career. The 23-year-old is also known for his shot volume. As the highest-paid forward on his new team, Peterka is positioned to deliver on his contract.

Ivan Barbashev, F, Vegas Golden Knights (No. 148 forward)

Playing primarily on a top line with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, Ivan Barbashev averaged 0.73 points per game last season. Should Mitch Marner join that line in place of Stone, Barbashev`s offensive production could see a modest increase. Additionally, this robust forward is known for his physicality, which is a valuable asset in fantasy leagues that reward hits.

Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Carolina Hurricanes (No. 51 defenseman)

In just 70 games, Shayne Gostisbehere remarkably recorded 27 power-play points, a total exceeded only by Cale Makar, Jake Sanderson, and Quinn Hughes, along with 18 even-strength points. Expected to reprise his role as Carolina`s top power-play quarterback, Gostisbehere deserves considerably more recognition in fantasy leagues that heavily weight special teams production.

Cam Fowler, D, St. Louis Blues (No. 74 defenseman)

Cam Fowler, consistently undervalued in fantasy hockey, put up 36 points in just 51 games after joining the St. Louis Blues in December. Nearing 500 career points, this top power-play defenseman is projected to contribute 45 points in his first full season with St. Louis. For fantasy managers looking for additional motivation, it`s worth noting that Fowler is also in the final year of his current contract.

Connor Bedard, F, Chicago Blackhawks (No. 38 forward)

Connor Bedard, the Blackhawks` franchise cornerstone, requires a more robust supporting cast to truly excel. Until then, the 2024 Calder Trophy winner is unlikely to consistently achieve a point-per-game pace. As Bedard approaches the final year of his entry-level contract, Chicago`s management urgently needs to make substantial roster improvements.

Steven Stamkos, F, Nashville Predators (No. 24 forward)

Last season, Steven Stamkos, the former Lightning icon, managed only 53 points in Nashville. While a repeat of this uncharacteristically low output for a career point-per-game player is unlikely, he`s also not projected to reach 75 points. Therefore, his No. 20 ranking seems overly optimistic.

Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens (No. 18 defenseman)

Mike Matheson`s production significantly declined last season, from 62 points in 2023-24 to 31, largely overshadowed by Lane Hutson`s Calder-winning performance. With Noah Dobson now on the team, the 31-year-old`s power-play opportunities and subsequent points are expected to diminish further. This makes his current high ranking difficult to justify.

Brent Burns, D, Colorado Avalanche (No. 53 defenseman)

Veteran defender Brent Burns is joining his fourth NHL team in 22 years, seeking his first Stanley Cup. At 40, he`s unlikely to mind a reduced role on the blue line, playing behind talents like Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Samuel Girard. After a 61-point season in Carolina in 2022-23, Burns` production dropped to just 29 points last season. With the Avalanche, this 29-point total appears to be his probable ceiling.

Logan Thompson, G, Washington Capitals (No. 12 goaltender)

Logan Thompson, who moved from Vegas, was a pleasant fantasy surprise for many during the 2024-25 season. The key question now is whether he can replicate his impressive 31-6-6 record for a Washington Capitals team that is unlikely to repeat its 111-point performance (most likely not). Thompson`s .910 save percentage suggests that several factors contributed to his high winning percentage. While he is undoubtedly a capable fantasy goalie, he might not be the top choice for a No. 2 goaltender in moderately sized leagues.