The 2024-25 NBA regular season is approaching its climax, with teams focused on securing their playoff berths. With the regular season concluding on April 13th, there are still crucial games left to play.
While the Oklahoma City Thunder have clinched the top spot in the Western Conference, the battle for the second seed remains fiercely contested. In the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, and New York Knicks have already guaranteed their playoff participation.
Our NBA experts Brian Windhorst, Bobby Marks, Tim MacMahon, Zach Kram, and Jamal Collier delve into the most compelling aspects of these final weeks, from player contract incentives to the race to the bottom for the coveted No. 1 draft pick.
Contract Incentives to Watch
Before the season began, 53 players, including prominent names like Kevin Durant, Derrick White, Aaron Gordon, and Dejounte Murray, had contract incentives tied to their performance. These incentives ranged from All-Star Game selections (Durant) to season 3-pointers made (White). Durant, White, and Jae`Sean Tate have already met their criteria, earning a combined $2 million. White also secured an additional $500,000 for playing at least 70 games.
Looking ahead, ESPN projects that only five more players – Dillon Brooks, Jonathan Isaac, Cameron Johnson, Chris Paul, and Julius Randle – are currently on track to achieve regular-season bonuses.
Dillon Brooks is set to earn $1 million if the Houston Rockets secure a playoff spot. Cameron Johnson will gain $562,000 if he maintains a true shooting percentage above 60%, currently at 63.2%. Chris Paul is just one win away from a $262,000 bonus and is also likely to achieve two further bonuses related to net rating and true shooting, potentially adding $523,000 to his earnings. Julius Randle`s $1.4 million bonus hinges on the Timberwolves reaching the first round of the playoffs. They are currently in the play-in tournament but closely trail the Golden State Warriors for the No. 6 seed.
Jonathan Isaac’s $2.6 million bonus for playing 70 regular-season games for the Orlando Magic was considered highly improbable at the start of the season, given his history of injuries. However, he has played in 65 games this season, on pace to surpass his game count since 2018-19.
Playoff Stakes are High for This Team
Memphis has become a team to watch after firing coach Taylor Jenkins just weeks before the playoffs, introducing significant uncertainty.
Firstly, the Grizzlies are taking a gamble by appointing interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, known for his intense, system-oriented approach and success overseas, but lacking NBA playoff experience. This bold move, possibly influenced by GM Zach Kleiman’s belief in Iisalo`s fast-paced, high-movement offense, deviates from typical NBA strategies. The next month will reveal if this change, prompted by Jenkins` recent shift away from aggressive offense, can propel Memphis into a successful postseason.
Secondly, the team`s stars` reactions to this new direction are crucial. This season, Ja Morant and Desmond Bane have seen reductions in minutes, shot attempts, and scoring. Despite improved offensive efficiency, questions linger about Morant`s feelings regarding these changes, especially as he becomes eligible for a contract extension this summer. Rumors about his future in Memphis surfaced, leading Kleiman to publicly dismiss them after the trade deadline.
Ultimately, the Grizzlies have underperformed. After securing the No. 2 seed in the West in both 2021-22 and 2022-23, they failed to reach the conference finals, partly due to Morant`s off-court issues. Last season was marred by injuries and Morant’s suspension. Despite being the No. 2 seed again in early February, their standing has declined, and momentum has waned as the playoffs approach. They need to prove their mettle when it truly counts.
Eastern Conference Playoff Seeding to Watch
Pay close attention to the three-way contest for the fourth to sixth seeds in the East between the Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, and Milwaukee Bucks. This race intensified with the announcement of Damian Lillard`s indefinite absence due to blood clots in his right calf. While there is optimism for Lillard’s return this season, the Bucks will be without their key player for a significant period and have already lost six of their last 10 games, dropping to No. 6.
Indiana, conversely, has been among the league’s hottest teams since the All-Star break with a 13-8 record, and Tyrese Haliburton is performing at an All-NBA level again. The Pistons are also surging, aiming to host a first-round series in their first playoff appearance since 2019. If the Bucks remain at the No. 6 seed, they are likely to face the Knicks in a high-profile first-round matchup, with the winner potentially facing the Celtics in the second round. The Cavaliers would have a potentially easier path to the conference finals, facing less experienced teams in the second round.
Tanking Teams Eyeing Cooper Flagg
In the past two seasons, the Utah Jazz maintained competitiveness for much of the season before strategically tanking late. This resulted in them picking ninth and 10th in the drafts, missing out on a franchise-altering player. This season, they initiated their tank earlier – even incurring a league fine for player participation violations – and are now almost assured of having the best lottery odds.
Utah’s need for Cooper Flagg is greater than other teams vying for a top lottery pick. The Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets are still in the early phases of rebuilding, while the Charlotte Hornets already possess a promising duo in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. The New Orleans Pelicans and Philadelphia 76ers are expected to be competitive again next season with improved health. The Jazz, however, traded away Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert three years ago and still lack a young cornerstone to build around. Flagg would fill this gap. While he would be a valuable addition to any lottery team, he would be particularly impactful in Utah, forming a formidable defensive frontcourt with Walker Kessler and complementing Lauri Markkanen`s versatile forward play.
Race for the West`s No. 2 Seed
The Houston Rockets are currently favored to secure the West`s second seed, a surprising development given preseason expectations. They hold a two-game lead over the Denver Nuggets, with their head-to-head tiebreaker set for the final day of the regular season in Houston.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers remain within striking distance if the Rockets falter, trailing by 4½ and 3½ games respectively. Two of the Rockets’ remaining eight games are against the Lakers on the road.
Players Approaching the 65-Game Threshold
Stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Anthony Edwards have already met the 65-game criteria for postseason awards eligibility. Gilgeous-Alexander is in contention for MVP, and Jackson is eligible for a supermax extension if he earns All-NBA or Defensive Player of the Year honors. However, several previous award winners are still short of the threshold, including Nikola Jokic (64), Evan Mobley (64), LeBron James (63), Jalen Brunson (61), Stephen Curry (62), Giannis Antetokounmpo (62), Kevin Durant (62), Domantas Sabonis (61), Jaylen Brown (59), and Draymond Green (59). To count towards the criteria, players must participate for at least 20 minutes in a game, with an allowance for two games between 15 and 20 minutes.
