Aryna Sabalenka has held the world No. 1 ranking for over five months and recently surpassed Madison Keys in the race to the WTA Finals. This year, she has competed in six tournaments, and the Miami Open final will be her fourth final.
Is anyone capable of halting Sabalenka`s dominant performance in women`s tennis?
Jessica Pegula is the next player to try. Pegula acknowledged Sabalenka`s strength after her own semifinal victory against Alexander Eala, saying, “Aryna, another hard-court final for us. I consider myself a top hard-court player, but she is likely the best.”
On the fast court in Miami, Sabalenka has consistently hit winners, even under pressure. After her dominant win over Jasmine Paolini, Sabalenka admitted she feels “in the zone.”
Sabalenka is only the third woman to reach the finals of Indian Wells, Miami, and the Australian Open in the same season as world No. 1, joining Steffi Graf (1994) and Martina Hingis (2000).
Pegula and Sabalenka have a history of eight matches, with Sabalenka winning six. What will happen in their upcoming match? Let`s analyze the strengths of both players:
Advantage, Sabalenka
Break points are crucial moments in tennis. Against Paolini, Sabalenka was exceptional, saving all four break points against her serve and converting four out of five on Paolini`s serve.
Sabalenka`s dominance is evident in her serving. In the second set against Paolini, while serving at 4-2 and facing break points at 15-40, Sabalenka responded with three outstanding serves followed by winners. This illustrates her aggressive and confident style of play.
Sabalenka has only conceded 23 games in 10 sets, while Pegula has lost 44 games.
Mental toughness, once considered Sabalenka`s weakness, might now be her greatest asset on the WTA Tour.
Pegula won their first encounter in Cincinnati five years ago. However, Sabalenka has won six of their last seven matches, all in straight sets.
Tennis Channel analyst Martina Navratilova believes, “She’s a harder opponent now than she was at the US Open.”
Sabalenka`s mindset is another key factor. Despite winning 22 out of 26 matches this year, her two losses in major finals – the Australian Open and Indian Wells – are significant.
Sabalenka commented on these losses, stating, “We never lose, we only learn lessons. Sometimes opponents play freely with nothing to lose and perform exceptionally.”
“I believe in those finals, I focused too much on my opponents rather than on my own game.”
Singer Bon Jovi watched Sabalenka`s semifinal victory. Her ambition in this tournament goes beyond just hoping for a win.
Sabalenka expressed confidence, “I really feel that this time, I will perform better than in my previous two finals.”
Advantage, Pegula
Could there be an element of fate at play?
Pegula, at 31, is the third player over 30 to reach the Miami Open women`s final in recent years. Petra Kvitova (2023) and Danielle Collins (2024) both won the title after reaching this stage.
Pegula might feel that her time has come.
This is Pegula`s third Miami Open semifinal. In the past, she lost at this stage to Iga Swiatek (2022) and Elena Rybakina (2023). Despite being later in her career, Pegula continues to achieve breakthroughs. She had lost six major quarterfinals before finally reaching the final at the US Open last year.
Pegula seems to excel in these major 1000 events. This will be her sixth final at this level. Three of Pegula`s seven titles are from elite tournaments: Guadalajara (2022), Montreal (2023), and Toronto (2024). Winning Miami would mark a fourth consecutive year with a major title.
Pegula explained her success in big tournaments: “I really don’t know what it is, but I’m happy it happens at the 1000s — that’s always positive. In major tournaments, I can win under pressure and in crucial moments. I will aim to perform at my best.”
She added, “Aryna is one of the best at performing under pressure, so Saturday will be a significant challenge.”
Pegula`s immediate post-match comment was “I`m tired.” However, she is known for her excellent fitness and will have ample time to recover before the final.
Remarkably, this is Pegula’s third WTA 1000 final since turning 30. Since 2009, only Serena Williams and Li Na have achieved more WTA 1000 finals after turning 30. Pegula is making her best achievements at an age when many contemplate retirement, determined to seize these opportunities.
She has the chance to become the oldest player to defeat the world No. 1 in a WTA event final since Martina Navratilova in 1993.
Pegula concluded, “I believe I can bring some different strategies on Saturday. I will simply play my game. I know I`ve had opportunities against her in the past, and I will try my best to capitalize on them as much as possible.”
