Rookie Draft Guide: How Early to Pick Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper and Eight Others

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Predicting the performance of rookies before an NBA season is particularly challenging. Their success heavily depends on their readiness for the league`s unparalleled speed, power, and explosiveness. No other basketball league can truly prepare young players for the demands of competing in the NBA, marked by Jerry West`s iconic silhouette.

While some rookies are poised for immediate impact, others might struggle to adapt or require more time to reach their full potential, possibly `flipping a switch` during their debut season or the subsequent offseason. For fantasy basketball managers, the key is to accurately categorize these prospects to make informed draft decisions. This is where expert analysis becomes crucial.

Even during the NBA playoffs, extensive research was conducted on draft prospects, focusing on how their skills would integrate with potential teams. Observing the Las Vegas Summer League allowed for in-person scouting, assessing player movement, energy levels, and the competitive drive essential for transitioning to the NBA.

Below is an analysis of the top 10 rookies and recommendations for when to consider drafting them in your fantasy basketball leagues.

Must Draft Early

Cooper Flagg, SF/PF, Dallas Mavericks

Flagg has been acclaimed for years as a future NBA superstar, and his rookie season outlook is comparable to Victor Wembanyama`s two seasons ago, rather than last season`s rookie class. Flagg excelled in college, leading the Duke Blue Devils in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals per game. His performance at the Las Vegas Summer League demonstrated his size, strength, and mindset for immediate NBA impact.

The Mavericks possess a strong roster capable of contending for the playoffs, but a clear gap in their perimeter offense exists with Kyrie Irving sidelined for at least the first half of the season due to an ACL injury. This opens the door for Flagg to be the primary offensive threat from the wing for the Mavs right from the start. He is projected firmly within the preseason fantasy hoops top 50, and conservatively expected to be drafted in the first four rounds.


Want to test out different approaches? Try out the ESPN Mock Draft Lobby.


Mid-to-Late Rounds

Beyond Flagg, several other rookies possess the talent to produce fantasy-worthy numbers if circumstances align. However, they aren`t necessarily guaranteed immediate production, perhaps not even in the initial months of the season. Let`s explore some prospects with the best opportunity to contribute timely enough to be valuable draft picks in fantasy basketball leagues.

Ace Bailey, SF/PF, Utah Jazz

Bailey was considered one of the three most talented and NBA-ready players in this class, alongside Flagg and his college teammate, Dylan Harper. Unlike Harper, who was drafted by a San Antonio Spurs team with considerable depth at his position, Bailey was selected to be the offensive focal point for a rebuilding Jazz squad. Bailey has a legitimate chance to be his team`s leading scorer as a rookie and is the most likely rookie, outside of Flagg, to deliver impactful fantasy basketball numbers from the outset.

Dylan Harper, PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs

Excluding Flagg, Harper was the most impressive rookie observed at the Las Vegas Summer League. His skill set, size, and athleticism stood out, drawing favorable comparisons to rookie Brandon Roy – arguably the most impressive rookie guard performance seen in two decades of Summer League scouting. If Harper had been drafted by a team needing to maximize his talents immediately, he would likely be a middle-round draft pick at minimum.

However, the Spurs` roster features All-Star point guard De`Aaron Fox, reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, and young veterans Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson on the wings. While the Spurs have indicated Harper is a key part of their future, it`s difficult to envision him having an immediate fantasy-worthy impact. Harper could develop during the season, and his talent and upside warrant stashing him on a fantasy bench, even if his early numbers aren`t significant.

Egor Demin, PG, Brooklyn Nets

Demin is the most likely among the Nets` five first-round picks this year to produce right away. He is a tall point guard who complements undersized scorer Cam Thomas well in the starting backcourt. Demin has been dealing with plantar fascia issues that might delay his start to the season, but once healthy, he could be an all-category producer valuable in both points and category leagues.

VJ Edgecombe, SG, Philadelphia 76ers

The Baylor product is currently projected as a starting wing for the 76ers, especially while Jared McCain is out. Edgecombe possesses explosive leaping ability and quickness, making him an effective finisher in the lane and on fast breaks, as well as a strong defender. He can contribute in steals and even blocks, a valuable bonus for a guard. Edgecombe`s projected role might not promise huge numbers, as he isn`t a long-range shooter, but his talent, opportunity, and upside make him a potential late-round flyer in fantasy basketball drafts.


Deeper Leagues and Free Agents

Tre Johnson, SG, Washington Wizards

Johnson could emerge as one of the best 3-point shooters in this draft class, demonstrating both volume and accuracy from spot-up situations and off the dribble. His ability to create his own shot is a significant asset for a rebuilding Wizards team lacking perimeter talent. He might be worth a late-round flyer in fantasy leagues; if he reaches his upside as a high-teen scorer with potentially the most 3-pointers among rookies, he could develop into a flex starter by season`s end.

Kon Knueppel, SG, Charlotte Hornets

Knueppel also makes a case for the best shooter in this draft class, though he is more known for spot-up shooting than shot creation. There is fantasy value in being a knockdown 3-point shooter playing alongside talented creators and scorers. With LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Collin Sexton handling more creation and scoring, drawing defensive attention, Knueppel could find more open shots. It`s uncertain if Knueppel will generate enough volume to be valuable in points leagues, but his potential for numerous 3-pointers could warrant roster consideration in category leagues.

Jeremiah Fears, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans

The former Sooner is a fearless shooter/scorer on the wing, and he might see increased minutes for the Pelicans early in the season due to Dejounte Murray`s absence until the New Year. Fears still projects as a sixth man at best, so consistent fantasy-worthy numbers are not guaranteed, but he is worth monitoring as a free agent with upside.

Khaman Maluach, C, Phoenix Suns

Maluach was drafted as a defensive role player for the Suns` interior. He will likely start the season coming off the bench, but it`s important to note he`s backing up Mark Williams. Williams has missed a significant number of games in his career, never playing more than 44 games in any of his three NBA seasons. If Maluach secures starter`s minutes, his shot-blocking ability could be of interest in category leagues.

Nique Clifford, SG, Sacramento Kings

Clifford deserves mention here. He is an older rookie at 23 years old, and after an impressive fifth collegiate season, he delivered a dominant performance at the Las Vegas Summer League. He is set to back up DeMar DeRozan, which suggests limited early minutes, but he`s another free agent to keep an eye on once the season begins.

Callum Drayton
Callum Drayton

Meet Callum Drayton, a passionate journalist living in an English city, dedicated to uncovering the latest in sports news. From football pitches to boxing rings, Callum’s knack for storytelling brings every game to life.

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