World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka possesses a formidable array of skills, continuously honing her game with each match. Beyond her powerful strokes, her mental fortitude under pressure is often underestimated.
In a demanding Mutua Madrid Open quarterfinal, Sabalenka faced a strong challenge from Marta Kostyuk. The match featured two incredibly tight tiebreaks, where Sabalenka showcased her resilience, ultimately winning 7-6(4), 7-6(7).
During the second-set tiebreak, a brief rain delay occurred. When play resumed with the roof closed, Sabalenka was trailing 5-4. However, she demonstrated clutch performance, saving a set point with a fierce backhand winner down the line and securing the win on her third opportunity after Kostyuk`s backhand found the net.
As the final player to reach Thursday`s semifinals after a match lasting over two and a half hours, Sabalenka is set to face the No. 17 seed Elina Svitolina. Svitolina earned her spot with a convincing 6-2, 6-1 victory over unseeded Moyuka Uchijima.
The other semifinal features a clash between the No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek and No. 4 seed Coco Gauff. Swiatek advanced after dropping the first set to Madison Keys but rallying to win 0-6, 6-3, 6-2. Gauff defeated 18-year-old Mirra Andreeva 7-5, 6-1.
Reflecting on her match, Sabalenka shared, “Every time I come here, I always hope I`m going to stay until the last stage.”
Anticipation is high for a potential third consecutive Madrid final between the top two players, Sabalenka and Swiatek. This would mark a historic first in the WTA 1000 (formerly Tier I) format, introduced 35 years ago.
Semifinal Matchups Breakdown:
No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 17 Elina Svitolina
The case for Sabalenka:
Sabalenka excels under duress. She leads the tour in break points saved this year, adding 13 more against Kostyuk to her total of 141, reaching 154. Despite clay not being her primary surface, Madrid`s quicker conditions suit her game; her two career clay titles are both from Madrid. Her record here is impressive at 21-4, and this marks her sixth semifinal appearance of the season. Historically, she holds a dominant 4-1 head-to-head record against Svitolina.
Following her quarterfinal win, Sabalenka commented on the challenging conditions, stating, “I think the whole match, I was handling myself because of the conditions. It wasn`t about tennis, it was just about the way you can handle yourself… Because I think in those conditions anyone can win, so it’s nothing about tennis.”
The case for Svitolina:
Elina Svitolina is enjoying a remarkable resurgence, currently on an 11-match winning streak on clay, all in straight sets. This is her longest clay win streak since 2017. While she trails Sabalenka 1-4 head-to-head, two of their clay encounters went to three sets, indicating competitive potential. Svitolina recently powered past Moyuka Uchijima with a dominant 6-2, 6-1 win, winning 30 of 45 points on her serve and breaking five times.
Svitolina has a notable history of elevating her game against World No. 1 opponents, holding a strong 7-7 record in such matches. Since 2000, only three players have more wins against No. 1s: Serena Williams, Venus Williams, and Lindsay Davenport. Feeling confident in her current form, Svitolina noted, “I draw the confidence from all those statistics that I have.”
No. 2 Iga Swiatek vs. No. 4 Coco Gauff
The case for Swiatek:
As the defending champion, Swiatek is the clear favorite based on their history. She has won nine consecutive matches in Madrid and 15 of her last 16 here since the 2023 final loss. Although she dropped a set in three of her four matches en route to the semifinal, she consistently found ways to prevail. Her head-to-head against Gauff is heavily in her favor at 11-3 overall and an undefeated 5-0 on clay. While Gauff has pushed her in the past (like a 7-6, 6-3 match on clay four years ago), Swiatek has dominated their subsequent clay meetings.
In her quarterfinal against Madison Keys, Swiatek demonstrated mental resilience after losing the first set 6-0. She remained calm, while Keys, who started with only two unforced errors in the first set, made 33 over the next two sets. Swiatek committed just 10 errors in those deciding sets, showcasing her consistency. As a four-time French Open champion, her comfort and prowess on clay are undeniable.
The case for Gauff:
Coco Gauff displayed grit in her quarterfinal win over Mirra Andreeva, saving two set points in the first set before winning 7-5, 6-1. While the head-to-head heavily favors Swiatek, Gauff has won their last two encounters (both on hard courts, at the WTA Finals and United Cup). Gauff attributes this shift to increased “belief.” She explained, “In the beginning of our matchups, she was a top player, and I felt like I maybe kind of wrote myself off… Now I just treat it as a new match, new opportunity each time.”
Although she hasn`t beaten Swiatek on clay, Gauff notes that their previous clay matches were on the slower courts of Paris and Rome, unlike Madrid`s faster conditions. Gauff`s defense is a constant strength, and she has been working to improve her forehand and serve. Against Andreeva, she was highly effective on her first serve in the second set (winning 15 of 16 points) and created 16 break opportunities, converting five. After dropping the first set of the tournament, Gauff has won eight consecutive sets against increasingly challenging opponents. Having turned 21 recently, she has developed the physical strength needed to compete against top players like Swiatek.
