What marks the lowest point of the Philadelphia 76ers` 2024-25 season?
Could it be when Joel Embiid, already sidelined with an injury, faced suspension in November due to a locker room incident with a member of the media? Or perhaps when Paul George, in late February, declared a pause on his podcast to concentrate on a playoff push, only to have his season cut short by medical procedures the following week? Or maybe it was in March, when the 76ers suffered a home defeat against the Washington Wizards, the Eastern Conference`s lowest-ranked team?
These are just a few of the many lowlights in what has been a disastrous season for Philadelphia. The situation worsened when Embiid was scheduled for arthroscopic surgery on his left knee the following week – a month after his season had already been declared over.
This was far from where the 76ers anticipated being in April. After seven consecutive playoff appearances and an offseason that seemed to reinforce their championship aspirations, Philadelphia extended contracts for Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, signed George – a significant free agency acquisition – and bolstered their depth across all positions during the summer. ESPN`s Kevin Pelton awarded `A` grades to only two teams for their offseason moves: the 76ers and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
However, while the Thunder are leading the Western Conference and on track to potentially set a new NBA record for point differential in a season, the 76ers appear to be in a race to lose games, seemingly to avoid conveying a valuable top-six protected draft pick to Oklahoma City in June.
Since February 4th, Philadelphia has endured an NBA-worst record of 3 wins and 24 losses, accompanied by a net rating of minus-10.9.
This bleak performance has been the overriding theme for the franchise this season. As this calamitous season nears its end, it`s time to assess the 76ers` profound disappointment: its underlying causes, its place in history, and what the future holds.
Stars` Underperformance Sets a Negative Tone
The 76ers` disappointing season is largely attributable to Embiid, the 2022-23 NBA MVP, who participated in just 19 games this season and has now missed 49% of the 76ers` games since his draft. Embiid joins Derrick Rose as the only MVPs in the last two decades to not rank in the top 10 of MVP voting within two years of receiving the award.
In essence, most MVPs maintain their elite status for at least a couple of subsequent seasons. However, Embiid, based on this season`s performance, has not.
Even with more game appearances this season, Embiid likely wouldn`t have been in MVP contention. His statistical output and efficiency declined – his scoring average decreased from 34.7 to 23.8 points per game, and his true shooting percentage dropped from 64% to 58%. Notably, for the first time in his career, the 76ers were outscored when Embiid was on the court, evidenced by his negative-5.5 net rating this season, a stark contrast to his plus-8 or better rating in the previous four seasons.
Historically, the 76ers` strategy revolved around dominating during Embiid`s playing time and maintaining competitiveness when he was off the court. This season, they failed to achieve the former. Even when the expected `big three` of Embiid, George, and Maxey were on the floor together, the 76ers` offensive output was just 109 points per 100 possessions, ranking in the 17th percentile across the league, according to Cleaning the Glass.
George, in his first year of a four-year maximum contract extending through his age-37 season, struggled with both health and performance. After nine consecutive seasons of scoring at least 21 points per game, George`s average dropped to 16 this season.
Despite a reduced usage rate, which theoretically should have allowed him to be more selective, his efficiency plummeted. Last season, George`s shooting accuracy was 6% above the NBA average, whereas this season, it was 6% below. Advanced metrics suggest George has been less impactful than Tobias Harris, his predecessor in Philadelphia, who is now on track to return to the playoffs with the Detroit Pistons.
Maxey, despite outperforming both Embiid and George statistically, also experienced a slight regression from his Most Improved Player form. With a heavier workload due to the frequent absences of Embiid and George, Maxey still scored significantly, but his efficiency suffered. His 3-point shooting accuracy decreased from 37% to 34%, and his turnover rate increased by a third, from 1.7 to 2.4 per game. It appears Maxey may have reached his peak and is better suited as a secondary star rather than the primary option for a playoff contender.
Beyond these star player issues, injuries significantly impacted the 76ers` season from the outset. According to Spotrac, the 76ers have lost more salary cap value to injured players than any other team this season. The New Orleans Pelicans, second on this list, have also underperformed expectations considerably.
These absences disrupted the 76ers` ability to establish any consistency in their player rotations. They have utilized 52 different starting lineups this season, setting a new NBA record.
A Top Disappointment of the Century?
The 76ers` preseason win expectation was set at 50.5 wins, according to Basketball Reference`s over/under archive. They are not on pace to reach this, likely not even half of it.
Philadelphia is currently projected to be the NBA`s third-most underachieving team in the 21st century. Should they continue losing and finish with 23 wins, they will fall 27.5 wins short of their preseason expectation. Even if they reach their predicted 24 wins based on ESPN`s BPI forecast, they would still underachieve by 26.5 wins.
The most underachieving team of this century is the 2007-08 Miami Heat, who, after losing Dwyane Wade to injury and trading Shaquille O`Neal, finished with a 15-67 record in what became Pat Riley`s worst and final season as head coach.
Second on the list are the 2019-20 Golden State Warriors, also heavily impacted by injuries. Following five consecutive NBA Finals appearances, these Warriors were a shadow of their former selves: Kevin Durant departed for Brooklyn, Klay Thompson missed the entire season, and Stephen Curry played only five games. Rookie Eric Paschall became the team`s leading scorer.
However, the Heat and Warriors teams of those years were not expected to be as competitive as this 76ers team. When considering only teams with a preseason over/under of at least 50 wins, the 76ers rank as the most disappointing, surpassing even the 2021-22 Lakers (52.5 over/under, 33-49 actual record), who also missed the playoffs.
The 76ers were initially projected to secure a top-six record this season. Now, they are striving to finish in the bottom six to improve their draft pick odds. Given the high preseason expectations and their dramatic failure to meet them, it`s reasonable to argue that the 76ers are the most disappointing team of the 21st century.
Looking Ahead After Disappointment
Yet, there may be a glimmer of hope amidst this bleak situation.
Historical trends from teams that have underperformed as significantly as the 76ers suggest that long-term despair is not inevitable. This aligns with sabermetrician Bill James` `Plexiglass Principle`: teams that drastically underachieve often recover relatively quickly. After all, having stars capable of generating high expectations is preferable to having no stars at all.
The 2007-08 Heat, despite their collapse, returned to the Finals three years later, propelled by Wade and the addition of LeBron James and Chris Bosh through free agency. The 2019-20 Warriors rebounded to win another title two years later. The 2021-22 Lakers, after their stumble, reached the Western Conference finals the subsequent season.
Remarkably, the 76ers` overall disastrous season has some positive developmental aspects. Rookie guard Jared McCain, though limited to 23 games due to injury, leads all rookies with 15.3 points per game despite being the 16th draft pick last year. Quentin Grimes has also shown significant improvement since a midseason trade to Philadelphia. Grimes` statistics as a 76er (21.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 39% 3-point shooting) are comparable to All-Star Jalen Williams` this season (21.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 36% 3-point shooting), albeit without the same defensive impact.
Next season, with Maxey, McCain, and Grimes – assuming Grimes remains in Philadelphia – the 76ers should possess reliable perimeter scoring for the entire game. George and Embiid could benefit from extended rest and return healthier. A top-five draft pick might also join the team, depending on the lottery outcome. And General Manager Daryl Morey is expected to make strategic roster adjustments.
However, much depends on Embiid`s recovery, especially given his $55.2 million salary for the next season and a max extension starting in 2026-27. Despite the current instability, the 76ers have a foundation. While it may appear less solid than in previous years, a historically disappointing season does not necessarily dictate long-term failure.
