NHL Hart Trophy Race: Early MVP Favorites for the 2025-2026 Season

The pursuit of the NHL’s Hart Trophy, awarded annually to the league’s most valuable player, is emerging as one of the most compelling narratives of the 2025–26 season. While outstanding statistical output is always a cornerstone of MVP discussions, this year’s competition also underscores the increasing influence of a compelling narrative and how betting markets shape perceptions of leading candidates.

Nathan MacKinnon’s recent achievement of his 40th goal electrified both arenas and those monitoring MVP odds. His scoring prowess and significant impact on the Colorado Avalanche have set an early standard for the award. Nevertheless, the MVP field remains densely packed, with Connor McDavid consistently delivering elite offensive numbers, rookie sensation Macklin Celebrini making a surprising challenge, and several other star players posting stats worthy of consideration.

This analysis, utilizing scoring statistics, midseason voting results, contract details, and market data, delves into the top contenders and explains why each player is a key part of the league’s ongoing MVP conversation.

Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon continues to lead the 2025–26 Hart Trophy race. The Colorado Avalanche superstar boasts 93 points (second in the NHL), 40 goals (first), and a league-leading +48 rating, solidifying his status as one of hockey’s most dominant figures.

By the midseason mark, MacKinnon had already amassed 78 points and 36 goals, averaging 1.81 points per game. This scoring rate notably exceeded that of the previous year’s Hart Trophy recipient by approximately 0.25 points per game, highlighting the exceptional nature of his season.

MacKinnon’s impact at even strength has been equally remarkable. He has registered 29 even-strength goals and 58 points, contributing to the Avalanche’s impressive +53 goal differential (76–23) when he is on the ice. These figures emphasize his critical role in Colorado’s offensive and defensive achievements.

Midseason voting places MacKinnon firmly atop the Hart Trophy standings. He leads the voting leaderboard with 73 points and 10 first-place selections, giving him a clear advantage in the MVP discussion.

Odds Context

MacKinnon has also become the betting favorite across various markets. Futures odds reflect his statistical dominance and the confidence placed in his consistent performance.

He currently holds the shortest Hart Trophy odds across multiple major betting platforms. His share of betting tickets and overall money wagered remains among the highest, indicating strong support from both casual observers and experienced futures bettors.

Connor McDavid

Whenever Connor McDavid is active, his name is an automatic inclusion in the Hart Trophy conversation. The Edmonton Oilers captain once again leads the NHL in total points with 96, while ranking second in goals with 34.

One of McDavid’s most impressive stretches involved a 17-game point streak, during which he accumulated 41 points and 18 goals. Over this period, he averaged an astonishing 2.41 points per game, a pace that would project to an extraordinary 198 points over a full 82-game season.

While sustaining such a pace for an entire season is improbable, this streak demonstrated McDavid’s ability to swiftly alter the MVP narrative. Betting markets adjusted his Hart Trophy odds significantly during this surge.

Midseason voting totals show McDavid with 59 voting points and three first-place votes, positioning him within striking distance of MacKinnon.

Contract Details

McDavid remains one of the NHL’s highest-paid athletes. His current contract is an eight-year, $100 million agreement with an average annual value of $12.5 million. For the 2025–26 season specifically, his compensation includes a $3 million base salary and a $7 million signing bonus.

Odds Context

Although MacKinnon currently leads the betting market, McDavid remains a formidable contender. Futures boards typically price him as a strong challenger. Earlier preseason odds even positioned McDavid as the favorite on some platforms, underscoring his perennial MVP status.

Macklin Celebrini

Every MVP race benefits from a compelling storyline, and Macklin Celebrini has delivered one of the season’s most captivating narratives. The rookie standout has registered 81 points (fourth in the NHL) and had 67 points at the midseason point, ranking third at that time.

Celebrini’s even-strength production has drawn comparisons to some of the most celebrated rookie seasons in NHL history. When measured against the legendary debut campaigns of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin in 2005–06, his statistics remain highly impressive.

He has recorded:

• 20 even-strength goals (tied for second in the NHL)
• 49 even-strength points (second)
• +23 goal differential while on the ice

The crucial question surrounding Celebrini is whether he can maintain his remarkable pace and challenge the established dominance of players like MacKinnon and McDavid.

Midseason voting totals show Celebrini with 56 points and three first-place votes, confirming that voters are seriously acknowledging his rookie campaign.

Odds Context

Betting markets consistently position Celebrini as the closest challenger to MacKinnon. His Hart Trophy odds have typically varied, reflecting his strong performance.

Many betting boards list him as the second-shortest candidate behind MacKinnon, suggesting that market sentiment believes his rookie season could evolve into a legitimate MVP push if his production continues.

Nikita Kucherov

Tampa Bay Lightning star Nikita Kucherov continues to deliver elite offensive numbers. With 91 points, he currently ranks third in the NHL scoring race, reinforcing his reputation as one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers.

Kucherov has accumulated nine midseason Hart voting points, placing him within the broader group of MVP candidates.

Odds Context

According to futures markets, Kucherov typically appears with significant odds for the Hart Trophy. These numbers reflect both his offensive consistency and the challenge of surpassing the league’s most dominant centers.

Even so, Kucherov remains one of the NHL’s most productive wingers, and a strong late-season surge could elevate his standing in the MVP race.

Kirill Kaprizov

Kirill Kaprizov continues to be the cornerstone of the Minnesota Wild offense. He is tied for third in the NHL with 32 goals, and advanced metrics consistently rank him among the league’s most impactful forwards.

Despite his production, Kaprizov has received only two midseason voting points, illustrating the difficulty of gaining MVP momentum outside the league’s top tier of contenders.

Contract

Kaprizov recently signed an eight-year, $136 million extension that will carry an average annual value of $17 million beginning in the 2026–27 season.

Odds Context

Futures odds place Kaprizov deep on Hart Trophy boards, often with very long odds. These numbers highlight how challenging it can be to break into the top tier of MVP contenders even with elite individual performance.

Mikko Rantanen

Mikko Rantanen remains one of the NHL’s most reliable offensive producers and has accumulated 15 voting points in the Hart Trophy race.

However, playing alongside MacKinnon can sometimes complicate his MVP narrative. Voters frequently credit MacKinnon as the primary driver of Colorado’s success, which can inadvertently overshadow Rantanen’s significant contributions.

Odds Context

Rantanen’s Hart Trophy odds also appear deep in futures markets, typically reflecting long shots for the award.

Defensemen and Goaltenders in the Hart Race

Although the Hart Trophy is typically dominated by forwards, several players at other positions have delivered impressive seasons.

Zach Werenski

Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski has received four voting points, making him one of the few defensemen mentioned in the MVP conversation. His ability to influence both offense and defense has garnered attention despite the award’s historical preference for forwards.

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy continues to perform at an elite level, posting a 2.11 goals-against average, a .920 save percentage, and a league-leading 27 wins. Despite these strong numbers, goaltenders historically face long odds in Hart voting.

The Narrative Factor in the Hart Trophy Race

As the 2025–26 NHL season progresses, the Hart Trophy race will likely evolve in ways that extend beyond mere statistical comparisons. Voters frequently consider a blend of team success, historical context, and the overarching narrative surrounding each player’s season.

MacKinnon’s dominance, McDavid’s historic scoring pace, and Celebrini’s remarkable rookie campaign all present compelling cases for MVP consideration. Each player offers a distinct storyline, and these narratives often become increasingly influential as the season approaches its final months.

Betting markets offer a valuable real-time snapshot of how the MVP race is perceived. Shifts in odds often reflect both statistical trends and public sentiment, making the futures market an early indicator of momentum in the Hart Trophy conversation.

Ultimately, the Hart Trophy winner will likely be the player who combines elite production with a defining storyline that captures the attention of the league’s voters. As the playoff race intensifies and the regular season nears its conclusion, the interplay between numbers, narrative, and market perception will continue to shape one of the NHL’s most fascinating awards races.