NHL Contender Flaws: Biggest Issues for Top Cup Challengers

The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs are set to begin on Saturday following an exhilarating playoff race in both conferences. We are fortunate to witness the Battle of Ontario, the Battle of Florida, the Mikko Rantanen Bowl, and Round 4 of Kings versus Oilers right in the first round.

Often, the opening round of the playoffs delivers the most compelling series, occurring before teams are depleted by injuries. This year, the playoffs are immediately filled with intense rivalries and intrigue.

While every team has a chance to win, not all are genuine contenders. Then there are teams that appear strong on paper but tend to falter in the playoffs—looking at you, Toronto and Winnipeg.

The common thread is that every team possesses a critical weakness, an issue that could lead to their downfall. The positive aspect? The team that effectively addresses its weakness and benefits from some luck is likely to hoist the Stanley Cup in June. Here’s a look at the major flaws for the top 12 contenders.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Washington Capitals
Seed: Metro No. 1

The Capitals surprised many by topping the Eastern Conference, driven by solid goaltending, outstanding seasons from Dylan Strome, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Jakob Chychrun, and breakthrough performances from Aliaksei Protas and Connor McMichael (along with Alex Ovechkin`s record-breaking season).

The Capitals led the league in 5-on-5 shooting percentage this season, converting 10.69% of their shots. This explains the significant boost in offensive output from several players. Digging deeper, the Capitals scored slightly more goals per game (2.71) than they allowed (2.50) at 5-on-5.

According to Sportlogiq, Washington’s standing points were largely influenced by finishing and goaltending. Historically, these are the most unpredictable factors in the playoffs. Neither Logan Thompson nor Charlie Lindgren has substantial playoff experience, and while it might suffice for the first round, the Capitals’ critical flaw is that their shooting luck could dry up at the worst possible moment, and their goaltenders have shown inconsistency recently.

The Capitals are a competent team, but their underlying statistics suggest they may not be robust enough to withstand a shooting regression in the later playoff rounds.

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Toronto Maple Leafs
Seed: Atlantic No. 1

The Maple Leafs are considered contenders because they topped the Atlantic Division, not due to any recent playoff success (which they lack). On paper, the Leafs have excellent goaltending, a strong defense, and employ a system better suited for playoff hockey. They won their division despite relatively quieter seasons from Auston Matthews and Morgan Rielly, relying more on collective defensive strength.

However, regular season achievements mean little when the playoffs begin. The Leafs’ fatal flaw has persisted for almost a decade: mental barriers. For several seasons, the Leafs have entered their first-round series as the favored team, only to see their offense vanish, their goaltending falter, and their season conclude prematurely before May.

Under coach Craig Berube, the Leafs play a more conservative style of hockey: improved defense, tighter checking, and an offense focused on net-front presence. But they must also overcome their internal demons. Their best players are among the elite in the world. When these players perform at their peak, they are Toronto’s greatest asset. When they underperform, they become Toronto’s biggest liability.

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Tampa Bay Lightning
Seed: Atlantic No. 2

Each year, predictions of the Lightning’s decline are proven wrong by Jon Cooper’s team. Despite questions about Steven Stamkos’s absence, Tampa Bay enters the playoffs with another Hart Trophy-caliber season from Nikita Kucherov, stellar goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy, and strong performances from Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel, and Victor Hedman.

The Lightning remain a high-quality team with a crucial advantage: playoff experience and winning pedigree.

Tampa Bay’s critical flaw is the potential exhaustion of their luck. They have the highest 5-on-5 goal differential above expected in the league, according to Moneypuck, ranking fifth in goals scored above expected and fourth in goals saved above expected. They also have the highest PDO, indicating a significant amount of puck luck.

Furthermore, Vasilevskiy has struggled in the past two playoff campaigns, with save percentages below .900 in each series. For the Lightning to overcome the defending Cup champions in the first round, Vasilevskiy must outperform Sergei Bobrovsky. Ultimately, the Lightning’s downfall could be the wear and tear on their key veterans due to age.

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Carolina Hurricanes
Seed: Metro No. 2

The Hurricanes have been a popular team to support recently, but their fatal flaw contrasts with Tampa Bay’s regular season: insufficient offensive production and inconsistent goaltending.

Their system emphasizes puck possession and control, rather than direct offense and high-danger scoring opportunities. Carolina is a well-structured team with forward depth and defensive quality, further enhanced by the addition of Alexander Nikishin. They are a balanced team that plays with speed and generates chances.

This season, Carolina’s goaltending is their weakness, with only Frederik Andersen posting a save percentage above .900. Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov must make enough saves to enable Carolina to win games 2-1 or 3-2, as their shooting percentage and goal differential above expected are in the league’s bottom half. The Hurricanes don’t rely on luck and, despite being a strong secondary scoring team, need their goaltending to improve to avoid another early playoff exit.

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Florida Panthers
Seed: Atlantic No. 3

The defending Cup champions finishing third in their division highlights the Atlantic’s competitiveness. Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Florida all have valid arguments to be Cup finalists on paper.

The Panthers’ primary flaw is their inconsistent lineup. Florida was significantly impacted by injuries to key players late in the season. While these players are expected to return for the playoffs, their full health is uncertain.

Florida needs Aleksander Barkov to compete effectively within their division, and they rely on Matthew Tkachuk for scoring and physical play. While Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand also bring physicality, can the Panthers maintain discipline to remain effective? How will Aaron Ekblad perform after his return from suspension?

Playoffs are about momentum, and the absence of key players for extended periods could disrupt team cohesion. Among potential issues, this might be the least critical. When healthy and performing optimally, Florida is the strongest team in the East, with no apparent weaknesses in their lineup. If the Panthers can regain their rhythm and stay healthy, they could contend for the Cup in June for the third consecutive year.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Winnipeg Jets
Seed: Central No. 1

The Jets winning the Presidents’ Trophy is in itself a potential flaw, given the notorious ‘Presidents’ Trophy Curse.’ However, this isn’t their biggest issue.

Unfortunately, Winnipeg’s major flaw is consistent with previous years: their Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender in the playoffs. Connor Hellebuyck is likely to win his second consecutive Vezina, yet the NHLPA poll didn’t rank him as the league’s top goalie. Players ranked Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin higher, likely due to their playoff track records.

Hellebuyck has only secured two playoff wins in the last two seasons, with a save percentage of .874 and allowing 9.8 more goals than expected in that span. While not solely responsible for the Jets` consecutive first-round exits, he was a significant contributing factor. At his peak, Hellebuyck is nearly unbeatable, but his peak performance typically occurs in the regular season, not the playoffs.

The Jets have several players who have had career-best seasons: Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor upfront, and Josh Morrissey in the Norris Trophy conversation on defense. Combined with Hellebuyck, the Jets should be a Cup favorite. To reach the Western Conference finals, two conditions must be met: Hellebuyck must perform at a Vezina level, and their depth must match up against teams with superior center talent.

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Vegas Golden Knights
Seed: Pacific No. 1

The Golden Knights are leading the Pacific, and for the first time in years, there are no controversies about long-term injured reserve usage.

Jack Eichel has been outstanding for Vegas this season, discussed as a Hart Trophy contender and possibly a Lady Byng nominee. Besides Eichel, the Golden Knights get crucial offensive contributions from Tomas Hertl, Mark Stone, Pavel Dorofeyev, and Ivan Barbashev. They are among the deepest teams in the NHL both upfront and on defense.

Aside from health, which has been a concern for Vegas, their fatal flaw is penalty killing. Minnesota, with a healthy Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek, plus Brock Faber and the newly signed Zeev Buium, will be a tough matchup for Vegas. The Golden Knights rank 26th in penalty kill this season, with only the Wild and St. Louis Blues ranking lower among playoff teams.

Improving their penalty kill is crucial for the Golden Knights. If they advance past Minnesota, they will face teams in the West with elite power-play talent (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, etc.) that could be decisive in a series.

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Dallas Stars
Seed: Central No. 2

The Stars are an exciting team, but they have the most obvious flaw among contenders. The injury absence of Miro Heiskanen creates a massive void, making Colorado the series favorite.

With Heiskanen, the Stars boast two Norris-caliber defenders, including Thomas Harley. Without him, managing Colorado’s depth will be challenging.

Their forward depth is among the league’s best, but the ripple effect of Heiskanen’s absence might be enough to derail them in the first round. If Heiskanen returns at any point, Dallas immediately becomes a top contender in the Western Conference. Heiskanen is a game-changer, essential for Dallas’s Cup aspirations. Unfortunately for the Stars, their fatal flaw is not easily fixable and beyond their control.

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Los Angeles Kings
Seed: Pacific No. 2

The Kings are a well-rounded team benefiting from strong goaltending and balanced offense. Anze Kopitar remains a premier two-way center, and the Kings don’t have a single point-per-game player. Through balanced scoring and defensive depth, the Kings are 17-4 with a +41 goal differential and a 56.2% expected goal percentage since the trade deadline. They have been among the NHL’s top teams over this stretch and are peaking at the opportune moment.

Their main flaw is the power play. Power-play opportunities are scarce in the playoffs, and the Kings must improve their conversion rate beyond 15% to achieve playoff success. Their 5-on-5 play is among the NHL’s best, allowing them to dictate game pace and control play. Facing some of the top power plays in the West, the Kings must find ways to capitalize on man advantages to avoid another first-round exit.

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Colorado Avalanche
Seed: Central No. 3

Despite finishing third in the Central, many consider the Avalanche the best team in the West. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are having seasons worthy of Hart Trophy consideration. The addition of Mackenzie Blackwood has stabilized their goaltending, allowing Colorado to confidently compete with the Stars (Jake Oettinger) and Jets (Connor Hellebuyck).

Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle have been valuable additions since being traded, enhancing Colorado’s center depth. More significantly, Gabriel Landeskog is expected to return after a three-year absence, boosting both the lineup and team morale.

On paper, the Avs appear to have no critical flaw, which is remarkable considering they traded Mikko Rantanen, their second-best forward, earlier this season (and will face him in the first round).

A potential pitfall for the Avs could be Dallas Stars coach Peter DeBoer. The Avs struggled to score against Dallas in last year’s playoffs, and DeBoer has defeated the Avs in the playoffs with three different teams. He knows how to strategize against this team, and coaching can be decisive. Jared Bednar is an excellent coach, but if the Avs have a weakness beyond Blackwood’s lack of playoff experience, it might be getting out-coached by DeBoer.

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Edmonton Oilers
Seed: Pacific No. 3

Coming off a Game 7 Stanley Cup Final loss, the Oilers are in a more precarious situation this year. Already thin on defense, they should be considered underdogs against the Kings due to their critical flaw: lack of depth.

Mattias Ekholm’s injury is a significant blow to the Oilers, similar to Heiskanen’s absence for the Stars. While Ekholm isn’t Heiskanen’s equal, his absence is irreplaceable for the Oilers’ defensive corps.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl missed time with injuries toward the end of the season, and it’s clear that without both performing at a Hart Trophy level, the Oilers are in trouble. Their depth issues were exacerbated by the offseason departures of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg and have been a recurring problem. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman have regressed from their exceptional 2023-24 seasons, and the Oilers’ goaltending has been inconsistent.

There are numerous potential points of failure for the Oilers, all stemming from their lack of depth across all positions. Their goaltenders must perform exceptionally, and their superstars must elevate their play to an extraordinary level because the rest of the roster doesn’t project as a true contender.

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St. Louis Blues
Seed: West wild card No. 2

The Blues are listed here not because they are top Stanley Cup contenders like the others, but because they have shown this capability before.

“Play ‘Gloria,’” anyone?

Since Jim Montgomery became coach on November 24, the Blues have been outstanding. They achieved a franchise-record 12-game winning streak, improving their playoff chances from 3.5% to qualification.

There is historical precedent for this franchise making an in-season coaching change before a deep playoff run. Craig Berube took over the Blues in January 2019, leading them on a magical run, supported by Jordan Binnington’s superb goaltending, to win the Stanley Cup. Is a repeat likely? No. Could the Blues upset the Jets? Yes.

St. Louis is this year’s Cinderella story in the playoffs. It’s uncertain when their luck will run out, as the roster has several flaws. However, the Blues are riding a wave of confidence, which is a valuable asset in the playoffs.