There`s an undeniable thrill in seeing a long-shot wager pay off. It validates a unique intuition or belief that might have seemed improbable to many, proving it to be precisely accurate.
And the financial reward isn`t bad either.
What defines a `long shot`? For individual players, odds can stretch to 500-1, meaning a mere $1 bet could yield a $500 return.
Frequently, these high-odds predictions fall just short, ultimately losing to more favored selections. Last season, William Nylander for the Rocket Richard Trophy and Zach Werenski for the Norris are prime examples; both were 100-1 bets before the 2024-25 season, finishing second to Leon Draisaitl and Cale Makar, respectively.
Yet, occasionally, the most improbable long shots do come through. The Washington Capitals, despite being 100-1 favorites for the Presidents` Trophy last season, defied expectations with exceptional coaching, emerging talent, and a classic Alex Ovechkin performance, ultimately topping the league standings.
While we`ll present some intriguing long-shot opportunities, the purpose of this analysis isn`t to endorse specific wagers. Instead, it`s about illustrating the analytical frameworks – or `mental gymnastics` – that can help you identify genuine value in future bets before the 2025-26 NHL season begins.
Consider this less a definitive betting guide and more an exercise in discerning potential value.
2025-26 Stanley Cup Winner
St. Louis Blues
Odds: 50-1
The Blues have a history as the ultimate underdog, transforming from a mid-season struggler to a magical Stanley Cup champion in 2019. Their recipe for playoff success—strong coaching, clutch goaltending, offensive depth, and a sturdy defensive corps—could perfectly align in the postseason, much like the recent Florida Panthers` unexpected deep runs.
Naturally, not all pieces are in place yet, but the puzzle could materialize: a superstar leap from Robert Thomas, a breakout rookie season from Jimmy Snuggerud, and the addition of an impact defenseman.
When selecting a Stanley Cup long shot, it`s crucial to envision a plausible scenario where all the essential components for playoff triumph could converge.
Playoff Qualification
San Jose Sharks
Odds: 15-1
While their rebuild is progressing, the Sharks aren`t quite ready to contend. However, when evaluating long-shot playoff qualification bets, they tick a few boxes.
Firstly, is there opportunity? In the Western Conference, only the Vegas Golden Knights (-1200), Edmonton Oilers (-1200), Colorado Avalanche (-1000), and Dallas Stars (-900) have very short odds, with all other teams at -350 or longer. This indicates potential for an unexpected contender.
Achieving regular-season success demands consistency, which the Sharks currently lack.
Possessing superstar-caliber prospects, there`s a conceivable reality where this team gels quickly. Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund, Michael Misa, Sam Dickinson, and Yaroslav Askarov all show immense breakout potential. If veteran reclamation projects such as Jeff Skinner, John Klingberg, and Philipp Kurashev also perform well… then perhaps. Just perhaps.
Hart Trophy Winner
Nick Suzuki
Odds: 500-1
Winning the Hart Trophy requires a player to be a pivotal team leader, driving their club to success, and making a compelling case as the most impactful player in the league. This makes Suzuki an extremely challenging long shot; even Connor Hellebuyck, who defied expectations last season, had odds of `only` 150-1.
Nevertheless, the NHL`s next wave of talent will eventually rise. While it`s difficult to imagine a 500-1 pick surpassing favorites like Connor McDavid (+200), Nathan MacKinnon (+475), or Nikita Kucherov (+650), here`s the argument for Suzuki.
Should the Montreal Canadiens orchestrate an unlikely division title run, and if Suzuki`s offensive production skyrockets, fueled by a dominant power play alongside Ivan Demidov, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky, potentially propelling him into the Art Ross Trophy race… those are, in fact, the precise `ifs` required to put him in contention.
For a Hart Trophy long shot, don`t just aim high; aim for the stars.
Rocket Richard Trophy Winner
Dylan Guenther
Odds: 400-1
In an era dominated by goal-scorers like Alex Ovechkin and Auston Matthews, the NHL`s top goal scorer is rarely a surprise. For long-shot candidates, the critical factors are demonstrated skill and ample room for development.
Guenther fits this profile. Last season, he played just 70 games, averaging 17 minutes per game. The Utah Mammoth are looking to advance, with Guenther as a key offensive driver. If his ice time increases to 20 minutes per game over a full 82-game season, maintaining his current shooting rate would put him at 281 shots on goal. A modest increase in shooting percentage from 13.2% to 16%—realistic for a skilled winger—would translate to 45 goals. With a bit of good fortune, he could become a legitimate Rocket Richard contender.
Similar arguments could be made for other long-shot candidates, but the common thread is identifying players with proven talent and a clear path to significantly increased opportunity.
Vezina Trophy Winner
John Gibson
Odds: 250-1
For Vezina Trophy futures, the fundamental criterion is volume. A goaltender must start over 50 games to even be considered, which typically disqualifies many long shots unless one is wagering on a starter`s injury.
Gibson, however, presents a viable path. The Detroit Red Wings are poised for a winning season, with the `Yzerplan` seemingly ready to yield results. If Gibson remains healthy and secures a full-time starting role, the necessary volume and win totals are achievable.
The final piece is form. Gibson retains the elite pedigree from his Vezina-caliber seasons in 2015-16 and 2018-19 with the Anaheim Ducks. Combine this with a dash of long-shot luck, and he becomes a highly plausible dark horse candidate – precisely the kind of upside to seek when reviewing futures odds.
Norris Trophy Winner
MacKenzie Weegar
Odds: 300-1
Realistically, any Norris Trophy selection other than Cale Makar essentially hinges on Makar missing substantial time this season.
Offensive production remains the primary metric for this award. Weegar is only one season removed from a 20-goal, 52-point campaign. A potential trade of Rasmus Andersson by the Calgary Flames could further expand his offensive role from the blue line.
Beyond his offensive capabilities, Weegar excels in defensive aspects often undervalued for the Norris, such as effective checking, shot blocking, and tilting possession in his team`s favor.
Even if Makar performs as expected, a long-shot defenseman can enter the discussion by coupling robust defensive play with impressive offensive statistics. Weegar has demonstrated the ability to deliver both.
Most Rookie Points
Arseny Gritsyuk
Odds: 40-1
Gritsyuk is quite low on the rookie points prop list, yet he possesses a potential route to success. His talent is undeniable, and he produced considerable offense in the KHL. The Devils need to enhance their wing scoring alongside their two star centers. While it`s a long shot for him to both secure consistent playing time and accumulate enough points to lead all rookies, the opportunity exists for him to capitalize on it.
When assessing rookie long shots, inherent talent is often present, but the crucial factor is identifying those with a clear pathway to a prominent role on the depth chart.
Most Shots on Goal
Owen Tippett
Odds: 400-1
Consider this: among players who have played at least 75 games over the last two seasons, Tippett ranks eighth in shots per minute—just trailing Alex Ovechkin and slightly ahead of Tage Thompson.
Generating shots on goal is fundamentally about a player`s aggressive mindset and a coach`s willingness to grant them a `shoot-at-will` green light. The annual leaders in this category are typically consistent, so for a new player to join this elite group, a shift is usually required. For Tippett, this change could involve new coach Rick Tocchet increasing his ice time from 16 minutes per game closer to 20, making him an intriguing long-shot wager, as his innate shooting ability is already established.
With an expanded role and more chances to shoot, he could transform from a long shot into a genuine contender.
