The current NBA era is notably characterized by a high degree of competitive balance.
Following the Oklahoma City Thunder`s championship victory in June, the NBA has seen an unprecedented seven distinct champions over the past seven seasons. While the Thunder`s youthful roster appears well-positioned to establish a prolonged period of dominance, other franchises have actively spent the offseason strategizing to prevent this from becoming a dynasty.
Despite a relatively subdued offseason with fewer monumental trades or acquisitions, numerous teams undertook significant adjustments to their lineups.
This summer saw significant player movement, including the Houston Rockets` substantial acquisition of Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns, who in turn received Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks. Both the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks saw important veterans depart, leading to fresh talent introductions. The Orlando Magic notably invested in Desmond Bane, contributing to their improved championship odds. The Los Angeles Clippers executed several noteworthy roster adjustments. Furthermore, the Portland Trail Blazers garnered attention by bringing back Damian Lillard, though his return to action is anticipated to be delayed until the 2026-27 season due to injury.
To evaluate these numerous roster changes, we projected the potential impact of each player`s arrival or departure on team performance. This involved establishing a performance baseline using their Estimated RAPTOR Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metrics, subsequently identifying the top five teams that enhanced their roster value and the top five that experienced the most significant losses.
Our analysis intentionally excluded specific contract values and salaries. However, adjustments were made for rookies expected to have an immediate influence, such as Cooper Flagg, and for injured new arrivals like Damian Lillard. Furthermore, impending free agents were treated as roster departures. We also acknowledged the value loss due to presumed season-ending injuries for players like Tyrese Haliburton, though these specific injury losses were not factored into the final rankings for teams appearing on our gain/loss lists.
Which teams significantly improved their competitive outlook? Which faced substantial talent losses? And which might lament a less active offseason? Let`s delve into the most impactful player movements of recent months and their potential ramifications for the upcoming season.
Teams that Gained the Most Value
1. LA Clippers
WAR added: +13.8 | WAR lost: -5.7 (Net: +8.1)
Top additions: Guard Chris Paul (4.7), Center Brook Lopez (3.5), Guard Bradley Beal (2.9), Forward John Collins (2.5)
Top losses: Guard Norman Powell (4.8), Guard Ben Simmons (0.7), Guard Amir Coffey (0.3)
The Clippers parted ways with Norman Powell, who was coming off a career-best season (6.3 WAR), through a three-team trade in July. Otherwise, their core roster, which was already strong, saw minimal talent attrition. (Ben Simmons` departure, regrettably, is no longer a significant impact factor.) They effectively brought in four players with a proven track record of contributing at least 2.5 wins per season: Chris Paul, returning to his former team and known for elevating his squads; veteran stability in Brook Lopez; and two high-potential players, Bradley Beal and John Collins, looking for a resurgence.
2. Houston Rockets
WAR added: +12.6 | WAR lost: -7.5 (Net: +5.1)
Top additions: Forward-Guard Kevin Durant (7.1), Forward Dorian Finney-Smith (2.2), Guard Josh Okogie (1.7), Center Clint Capela (1.5)
Top losses: Guard Jalen Green (3.0), Forward Dillon Brooks (2.7), Forward Cam Whitmore (1.1), Center Jock Landale (0.6)
Season-ending injury loss: -6.3 (Fred VanVleet)
The Rockets secured the most impactful player to switch teams this offseason in Kevin Durant, who, even at 36 and with a less formidable supporting cast in Phoenix, maintained an efficient 26.6 points per game last season. His continued high-level production will be crucial, especially following the departures that facilitated his arrival (Green and Brooks) and the recent torn ACL suffered by Fred VanVleet, who was slated to play a vital role in Houston`s pursuit of contention.
3. Dallas Mavericks
WAR added: +6.3 | WAR lost: -2.5 (Net: +3.8)
Top additions: Forward Cooper Flagg (3.6), Guard D`Angelo Russell (2.8)
Top losses: Guard Spencer Dinwiddie (1.7), Center Kai Jones (0.7)
Dallas`s 2024-25 statistics hide more complexity than those of a typical team. Their No. 19 net rating from the previous season encompassed several distinct team compositions, from before the notable Luka Dončić trade to the brief Kyrie Irving-Anthony Davis period, and later a stretch where both stars were sidelined. With Davis now back and Irving expected to return during the season, their net established WAR (+3.8) receives a boost from the projected value of Cooper Flagg (+3.6), the top pick in this year`s draft. The Mavericks also acquired D`Angelo Russell, whose performance was more effective in 2023-24 than 2024-25. Having lost minimal talent—Spencer Dinwiddie registered negative RAPTOR scores for three consecutive seasons—Dallas is poised for an exciting season.
4. Brooklyn Nets
WAR added: +10.0 | WAR lost: -7.0 (Net: +3.0)
Top additions: Forward Michael Porter Jr. (5.6), Forward Haywood Highsmith (1.7), Guard-Forward Terance Mann (1.5), Guard Egor Demin (0.6)
Top losses: Forward Cameron Johnson (3.5), Guard D`Angelo Russell (2.8)
The Nets struggled last season, securing only 26 wins—their lowest tally since 2016-17—and are likely to face similar challenges again. However, in the July trade that sent Cameron Johnson to Denver, Brooklyn gained a more productive recent player (along with an unprotected first-round pick). While it was a cap-driven move for the Nuggets, the Nets acquired Michael Porter Jr., who is younger and generated nearly twice as many WAR (11.7 vs. 6.3) over the past two seasons, significantly contributing to their net WAR (+3.0).
5. Charlotte Hornets
WAR added: +7.7 | WAR lost: -5.7 (Net: +2.0)
Top additions: Guard Collin Sexton (3.3), Point Guard Spencer Dinwiddie (1.7), Guard-Forward Kon Knueppel (1.0), Center-Forward Mason Plumlee (0.7), Guard Pat Connaughton (0.6)
Top losses: Center Mark Williams (1.8), Guard Josh Okogie (1.7), Center Jusuf Nurkić (1.4), Guard Seth Curry (0.5)
The Hornets cannot be accused of merely running back the same roster and expecting different outcomes. Beyond the core of Miles Bridges, LaMelo Ball, and Brandon Miller, General Manager Jeff Peterson has significantly overhauled the rest of the squad, which managed only 19 wins last year. Key additions include Collin Sexton from Utah and Spencer Dinwiddie from Dallas, alongside drafting Kon Knueppel fourth overall from Duke. Acknowledging that improving a struggling team is typically easier than enhancing a top-tier one, and that the Hornets—like the Nets—are unlikely to be strong contenders in 2025-26, their aim is clearly to be better than they were.
Who`s Not Here (and Why)
The Orlando Magic are generating buzz this season, with their preseason NBA title odds rising to seventh. Yet, they rank a modest 17th in net WAR. This is partly because acquiring Desmond Bane (along with former Suns guard Tyus Jones) necessitated giving up Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Cole Anthony, who collectively contributed 4.5 WAR in Orlando last year. Bane himself was worth 6.3 WAR, which reduces the net basketball value of the transaction. Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies and Atlanta Hawks made significant moves to bolster their talent—even trading players with each other in some instances—with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ty Jerome joining the Grizzlies, while Kristaps Porziņģis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Luke Kennard moved to the Hawks. However, both teams also experienced nearly equivalent talent losses, as Bane and Kennard departed Memphis, and Caris LeVert and Clint Capela left Atlanta. This negatively impacted both teams` net talent rankings. Finally, the Portland Trail Blazers would rank higher due to adding Damian Lillard alongside Jrue Holiday, but Lillard`s Achilles injury delays his expected return to the Blazers.
Teams that Lost the Most Value
30. Boston Celtics
WAR added: +4.9 | WAR lost: -16.5 (Net: -11.6)
Top additions: Guard Anfernee Simons (2.6), Forward Chris Boucher (1.6), Forward Josh Minott (0.5)
Top losses: Center Kristaps Porziņģis (4.9), Guard Jrue Holiday (4.5), Center Luke Kornet (3.5), Center Al Horford (3.2)
Season-ending injury loss: 10.7 (Jayson Tatum)
After clinching the 2024 NBA championship and being considered top contenders for most of last season, the upcoming year in Boston is shaping up to be quite different. A major blow came in May when Jayson Tatum, the regular-season WAR leader, suffered a torn Achilles. While he hasn`t ruled out an early return from what was initially thought to be a season-ending injury, he would likely miss the majority of the regular season even if he did manage to come back. Furthermore, Boston bid farewell to several core contributors from their championship run—Kristaps Porziņģis, Jrue Holiday, and Al Horford—along with highly effective role player Luke Kornet, who joined the Spurs in July. Consequently, the Celtics are heading into the 2025-26 season with a significantly diminished roster.
29. Phoenix Suns
WAR added: +9.3 | WAR lost: -16.4 (Net: -7.1)
Top additions: Guard Jalen Green (3.0), Forward-Guard Dillon Brooks (2.7), Center Mark Williams (1.8), Guard Jared Butler (0.8), Center Khaman Maluach (0.5)
Top losses: Forward Kevin Durant (7.1), Guard Bradley Beal (2.9), Guard Tyus Jones (2.7), Forward Cody Martin (1.4), Guard Monte Morris (0.9), Center Mason Plumlee (0.7), Forward Bol Bol (0.5)
This offseason was a necessary “reset button” for Phoenix, allowing them to move on from the unsuccessful “Big Three” experiment involving Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker, which resulted in zero playoff victories before its dismantling. However, the Suns experienced a significant talent exodus, notably Kevin Durant`s trade to Houston. While they received intriguing players like Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks (who combined for 7.3 WAR last season) in that record-breaking seven-team trade, the post-Durant transition in Phoenix is undoubtedly expected to be challenging.
28. Milwaukee Bucks
WAR added: +5.5 | WAR lost: -11.1 (Net: -5.6)
Top additions: Center-Forward Myles Turner (2.9), Guard Gary Harris (1.2), Guard Cole Anthony (1.2)
Top losses: Guard Damian Lillard (7.0), Center Brook Lopez (3.5), Guard Pat Connaughton (0.6)
The Milwaukee Bucks find themselves here following the dissolution of the Damian Lillard-Giannis Antetokounmpo partnership, which concluded an underwhelming two-year period marked by only three playoff wins across two first-round exits, with both stars facing health struggles at various times. Despite this, Lillard was highly productive in both of his regular seasons with Milwaukee, accumulating 13.7 total WAR across 2023-24 and 2024-25. Moving forward, the Bucks have signed Myles Turner to a four-year, $107 million contract, hoping he can replicate his solid averages of 17 points and 7 rebounds from the past three seasons in a new partnership alongside Giannis.
27. Cleveland Cavaliers
WAR added: +2.6 | WAR lost: -8.0 (Net: -5.4)
Top additions: Forward-Center Larry Nance Jr. (1.4), Guard Lonzo Ball (1.2)
Top losses: Guard Ty Jerome (4.6), Guard Isaac Okoro (2.5), Guard Javonte Green (0.9)
A year after dramatically increasing their wins from 48 to a near-franchise record 64, the Cavaliers are once again considered among the title favorites. However, like many contenders in the contemporary NBA salary cap era, they had to part ways with some of their key role players—most notably Ty Jerome, who was incredibly efficient (+5.3 RAPTOR) in 20 minutes per game last season, and Isaac Okoro, who consistently provided 3-and-D effectiveness for years before being traded to the Bulls for Lonzo Ball in July. If Lonzo Ball could maintain his health for a full season, his individual contribution could single-handedly offset the Cavaliers` offseason talent deficit, making him a fascinating acquisition for a championship-focused team. For now, however, Cleveland has lost a significant amount of proven talent compared to last year.
26. Minnesota Timberwolves
WAR added: +0.4 | WAR lost: -3.7 (Net: -3.3)
Top additions: Center Joan Beringer (0.3)
Top losses: Guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (3.0), Forward Josh Minott (0.5)
The Timberwolves entered the summer with considerable uncertainty regarding the return of their supporting cast. In that context, they arguably made the best moves possible (without incurring the second apron penalty) by re-signing Julius Randle and Naz Reid. This, however, came at the cost of losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who accumulated 7.1 total WAR over the past two seasons, and with whom the team had an average of 4.0 net points per 100 possessions on the court versus off. While not an earth-shattering loss, it highlights how depth can become a casualty of luxury tax implications in the current NBA landscape.
All-30 Team NBA Rankings
| Rank | Team | Additions | Subtractions | Net WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Clippers | 13.8 | 5.7 | 8.1 |
| 2 | Houston Rockets | 12.6 | 7.5 | 5.1 |
| 3 | Dallas Mavericks | 6.3 | 2.5 | 3.8 |
| 4 | Brooklyn Nets | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlotte Hornets | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2 |
| 6 | Toronto Raptors | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Lakers | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 8 | Memphis Grizzlies | 10.9 | 9.3 | 1.6 |
| 9 | Atlanta Hawks | 10.7 | 9.2 | 1.5 |
| 10 | Chicago Bulls | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | San Antonio Spurs | 6.7 | 6 | 0.7 |
| 12 | New York Knicks | 3.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| 13 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 0.3 | 0 | 0.3 |
| 14 | Denver Nuggets | 6.7 | 6.7 | 0 |
| 15 | Portland Trail Blazers | 11.9 | 5.2 | -0.3 |
| 16 | Washington Wizards | 4.9 | 5.3 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Orlando Magic | 8.3 | 8.7 | -0.4 |
| 18 | New Orleans Pelicans | 6.5 | 7.2 | -0.7 |
| 19 | Utah Jazz | 6.5 | 7.3 | -0.8 |
| 20 | Detroit Pistons | 6.8 | 8.2 | -1.4 |
| 21 | Philadelphia 76ers | 2.9 | 4.6 | -1.7 |
| 22 | Golden State Warriors | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| 23 | Sacramento Kings | 1.8 | 4.2 | -2.4 |
| 24 | Indiana Pacers | 0.8 | 3.5 | -2.7 |
| 25 | Miami Heat | 5.6 | 8.7 | -3.1 |
| 26 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 0.4 | 3.7 | -3.3 |
| 27 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.6 | 8 | -5.4 |
| 28 | Milwaukee Bucks | 5.5 | 11.1 | -5.6 |
| 29 | Phoenix Suns | 9.3 | 16.4 | -7.1 |
| 30 | Boston Celtics | 4.9 | 16.5 | -11.6 |
