Just three years ago, when we analyzed the strategies of all 30 NBA teams for the 2022-23 season, the Oklahoma City Thunder were barely a blip on the radar. Back then, OKC`s core centered around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who hadn`t yet achieved All-Star status, and recent draft picks Chet Holmgren (No. 2) and Jalen Williams (No. 12) from the 2022 draft. While their youthful talent and draft assets hinted at future potential, predicting their meteoric rise to 68 regular-season wins and an NBA championship—making them the league`s second-youngest title-winning team—would have been a stretch.
This journey serves as a potent reminder that not every team can perpetually chase a championship. Despite an unprecedented era of parity, with seven different champions in as many seasons, only a select few teams possess true championship caliber annually. Consequently, teams adopt diverse “all-in” approaches: some may focus entirely on cultivating a young roster, as the Thunder did, while others, like the Golden State Warriors or Dallas Mavericks, attempt to balance immediate contention with future development.
Based on an exhaustive review of each team`s roster, projected salary cap, and draft pick commitments, we`ve categorized all 30 NBA teams into eight distinct tiers. These tiers illustrate their strategic focus for the upcoming 2025-26 season, setting the benchmarks for their relative success or failure.
Tier 1: Championship Window Closing Soon
- Denver Nuggets
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Minnesota Timberwolves
When a team boasts the league`s top player, the immediate goal is championship victory. For the Nuggets, this urgency extends beyond Nikola Jokic`s three MVP awards. With his contract expiring in two years, a strong push is imperative, even if an extension seems likely. Furthermore, Denver has aggressively traded nearly all its future draft capital, including a 2032 first-rounder, to assemble its current roster, exemplified by the Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson swap.
The Milwaukee Bucks arguably embody a “win now” mentality more than any other team. General Manager Jon Horst has consistently made high-stakes moves to secure Giannis Antetokounmpo`s satisfaction and contention. This began with acquiring Jrue Holiday five years ago, followed by trading Holiday as part of the package for Damian Lillard two years later. Most recently, this summer saw them waive and stretch Lillard`s remaining $110+ million contract over two years to sign center Myles Turner, a bold move aimed at keeping pace with East rivals and retaining Antetokounmpo.
Minnesota presents a more complex case. Franchise cornerstone Anthony Edwards is still young enough to appear on our “top 25 players under 25” list, which typically doesn`t signal an immediate championship push. However, the Timberwolves have sacrificed most of their draft assets to maintain their current lineup, are nearing the second salary cap apron, and face the challenge of replacing key veterans Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, whose acquisitions fueled their back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances.
Tier 2: Sustained Championship Contention
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Houston Rockets
- New York Knicks
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Orlando Magic
With no starters in their thirties, the Cavaliers appear poised for a prolonged run as contenders, provided they can manage their burgeoning payroll. Extensions for All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley will propel Cleveland into the second salary apron this season, setting a two-year window before potentially difficult decisions arise regarding their core players.
The Houston Rockets, after acquiring Kevin Durant, aim to emulate Oklahoma City`s recent success. Durant`s arrival immediately opens their championship window, despite the 38-year-old Hall of Famer not aligning with a typical “extended window” strategy. However, the Rockets possess valuable future draft picks and young talents like Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, enabling them to pivot around their younger stars down the line.
The New York Knicks secured Mikal Bridges with a four-year, $150 million extension last month, building on Jalen Brunson`s long-term deal from the previous season. New York now has five key players—Bridges, Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart—under contract until at least 2028, reflecting the franchise`s strategy for sustained competitiveness over the past year and a half.
Remarkably, no reigning champion in modern NBA history matches the Thunder`s unique position: holding up to six additional first-round picks, alongside valuable pick swaps, after winning a title. With MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, All-Star Jalen Williams, and cornerstone Chet Holmgren now extended, managing the luxury tax will be a test. Yet, given their abundance of future assets, Oklahoma City is perhaps the least “all-in” of any recent champion.
For Orlando, the key question is whether the addition of Desmond Bane elevates the Magic into clear contender status. Despite injuries impacting Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, and Franz Wagner last season (resulting in a 41-41 record), their payroll is rapidly increasing, with all four set to earn at least $32.4 million in 2026-27 once Banchero`s extension begins. Notably, Bane (27) is the only core player over 24.
Tier 3: Developing Young Cores
All teams in this category possess a blend of current talent and promising young prospects, along with high-value draft picks intended to bolster their future core.
- Atlanta Hawks
- Detroit Pistons
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Portland Trail Blazers
- San Antonio Spurs
The Atlanta Hawks significantly boosted their future prospects this summer with a draft-night trade involving the New Orleans Pelicans, securing a projected top-10 pick in next year`s draft. This adds to a young core that includes last year`s No. 1 pick, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, and Dyson Daniels, who was last season`s Most Improved Player.
Detroit saw Cade Cunningham, the 2021 No. 1 pick, make significant strides last season, leading the franchise to its first playoff win since 2008. The team`s current objective is to build upon Cunningham`s success and develop the young talent around him, including Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren.
The Memphis Grizzlies experienced a short-term setback by trading Desmond Bane to Orlando for a collection of picks, one of which—likely Phoenix`s 2026 first-rounder—carries considerable upside. The hope is that this pick, combined with this year`s lottery selection Cedric Coward, and franchise cornerstones Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., will provide the team with a long window for success.
The Portland Trail Blazers have amassed a substantial pool of young talent, including Deni Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, Donovan Clingan, and Yang Hansen—all under 25. They aim to develop this group after acquiring veterans Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard this summer, though the precise shape of their future roster remains uncertain as these talents mature.
The San Antonio Spurs have been at the forefront of this category since the 2023 draft lottery, which granted them the opportunity to select Victor Wembanyama. Since then, the Spurs have centered their strategy around the prodigious big man to usher in a new era of excellence. The franchise has further strengthened this group by drafting Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, and trading for De`Aaron Fox in the two years following Wembanyama`s arrival.
Tier 4: Balancing Two Timelines
- Golden State Warriors
- LA Clippers
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Miami Heat
- Dallas Mavericks
- Philadelphia 76ers
This group employs various strategies for managing two distinct timelines. The Golden State Warriors are arguably closest to an “all-in” championship pursuit this season, having added Jimmy Butler III (36 in September) to a core featuring Stephen Curry (37) and Draymond Green (35). However, Golden State has been prudent with future draft picks, and with only one player (Moses Moody) having guaranteed money for 2027-28, they retain the flexibility to pivot.
Cap flexibility is a clear priority for the two Los Angeles teams and Miami, all of whom have been cautious with long-term contracts. All three realistically could create max-level cap space next summer, but are more likely to clear their books in 2027, when multi-year MVPs Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic could potentially become unrestricted free agents without extensions.
However, there`s a divergence in how each L.A. team is constructing its 2026-27 roster. The Clippers are heavily invested in veterans, having added 38-year-old Brook Lopez and 40-year-old Chris Paul to an already deep bench. The Lakers, conversely, are banking on finding long-term contributors by signing younger players like Deandre Ayton (27) and Jake LaRavia (23).
The Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks have more defined timelines within their rosters. For Philadelphia, the challenge is whether Joel Embiid and Paul George can remain healthy long enough to be effectively supported by younger guards Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain, and No. 3 pick VJ Edgecombe. In Dallas, the No. 1 overall pick (Cooper Flagg), who would typically join a team of young prospects, instead landed on a roster designed to win a championship on the timeline of established stars Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving.
Tier 5: The “Gap Year”
- Boston Celtics
- Indiana Pacers
Had it not been for the devastating Achilles tears sustained by Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton, these two teams would undoubtedly have been placed in the top two tiers. Instead, these severe injuries to their All-NBA stars, both of whom are expected to miss the entire 2025-26 season, have shifted both franchises` focus firmly to the future. The departure of Myles Turner from Indiana and Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis from Boston leaves these teams more likely to vie for a play-in spot than to contend for a top-four seed, even within the less competitive Eastern Conference.
Tier 6: Prioritizing Draft Positioning
- Brooklyn Nets
- Charlotte Hornets
- Utah Jazz
- Washington Wizards
These four teams consistently ranked among the bottom six in the NBA standings last season and hold the four lowest over/under win totals for the 2025-26 season.
Among this group, the Charlotte Hornets appear most likely to show competitiveness this season, having bolstered their playmaking depth behind starting point guard LaMelo Ball with new additions Spencer Dinwiddie and Collin Sexton. Charlotte`s Kon Knueppel, as the only top-four pick from this tier, also seems most prepared to contribute as a rookie, having earned MVP honors in the Hornets` NBA Summer League championship game victory.
Nevertheless, all these teams are probably at least a season away from seriously competing for a playoff berth, and would ideally prefer to secure another high draft pick first.
Tier 7: Undefined Direction
- Chicago Bulls
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Sacramento Kings
- Toronto Raptors
The strategic direction of these four franchises remains perplexing.
In Chicago, the offseason saw the Bulls extend lead front office executives Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley, along with coach Billy Donovan. Yet, the team has made the playoffs only once and secured a single playoff game victory in the past eight seasons, consistently failing to extract significant draft pick value from trades involving veterans like Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine over the last year. A glimmer of hope for Chicago lies in the considerable cap space they will possess next summer.
Since last summer, the New Orleans Pelicans have undergone a series of significant moves:
- Traded for Dejounte Murray, who subsequently suffered an Achilles tear.
- Moved Brandon Ingram for future draft capital.
- Traded the No. 23 pick in this year`s draft, plus an unprotected pick next year, to move up to No. 13 and select Derik Queen in June.
The cumulative result is a team that could potentially make the play-in tournament if everything aligns perfectly. Conversely, if circumstances do not favor them, the Atlanta Hawks could find themselves in a position to receive a top-five pick in the highly anticipated 2026 draft, courtesy of the Pelicans.
Sacramento, meanwhile, has assembled a roster with several competent veterans—DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk, and Dennis Schroder. However, none of these players offer long-term upside or a clear path to playoff contention within the formidable Western Conference.
Toronto mirrors Sacramento as the Eastern Conference`s equivalent. They have transitioned away from the last remaining players from their 2019 championship squad—Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Pascal Siakam—essentially converting them into Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett. This leaves the Raptors with a roster currently in the luxury tax that may not prove to be better than a play-in contender in the East.
Tier 8: Consequences of a Failed All-In
- Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns serve as a stark cautionary tale of what can happen when an “all-in” strategy falters. If these tiers had been compiled at the outset of the 2023-24 season, the Suns would have unequivocally been categorized as “all-in” for a title, having added Bradley Beal to their core of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Phoenix boasted one of the league`s most expensive rosters and controlled none of its first-round picks, having strategically re-swapped several with an eye toward future trade deadline upgrades.
However, the Beal-Durant era not only failed to yield a championship but also saw the Suns win zero playoff games. Following this, they agreed to a buyout with Beal last month. While Phoenix is now out of the second salary apron, their guard-heavy roster, a remnant of the Durant trade, lacks a clear long-term direction. The Suns haven`t traded their 2032 first-round pick simply because they couldn`t due to apron restrictions. Furthermore, with Booker and Beal`s salaries locked in until 2030, Phoenix has no realistic path to significant cap space.
