As the 2025-26 NBA season draws near, formal postseason discussions remain distant. Yet, in a league characterized by its frequent superstar transfers, unexpected team surges, and intense playoff battles, the period from October to April is renowned for its unpredictability.
Injuries are anticipated to significantly influence the Eastern Conference, potentially causing former top contenders like the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers to drop in the standings due to the absence of their key players.
The Western Conference, known for its fierce competition, is far from predictable. Last season, playoff seeding remained uncertain until the final day of regular-season play. This upcoming season, with significant roster changes—including Kevin Durant`s move to the Houston Rockets—another tightly contested race for standings is highly anticipated.
Below, our NBA specialists outline their projected win-loss records for all 30 teams across the league.
Please note: This 2025-26 NBA Summer Forecast is part of a series. Future segments will include predictions for conference and finals champions, while earlier releases covered our picks for major individual awards like MVP and DPOY. Detailed predictions are provided for both the Eastern Conference and Western Conference.
Eastern Conference
The Contenders
- 1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 59-23
- 2. New York Knicks: 54-28
- 3. Orlando Magic: 50-32
- 4. Atlanta Hawks: 47-35
- 5. Detroit Pistons: 47-35
The Cleveland Cavaliers are retaining 93% of the playing minutes from their impressive 64-win campaign last season. They bolstered their defense with offseason additions Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance Jr., while two key conference rivals, the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers, lost star players Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton to season-ending injuries.
Despite these advantages, the Cavaliers, led by All-Stars Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Darius Garland, are only narrowly favored over the New York Knicks to win the East. Last season, Cleveland defeated the Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns-led Knicks four times and secured 13 more wins. However, New York remains a formidable opponent, having advanced to the conference finals and strengthened their roster with value acquisitions like Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele.
The frequent description of the East as `wide open,` a phrase likely to dominate discussions in the coming months, subtly reflects a lack of strong confidence in the Cavaliers. This sentiment isn`t unfounded, as Cleveland has underperformed in consecutive postseasons with a largely unchanged core, despite injuries playing a role in both instances.
Our projections mirror this perspective; the Cavaliers lead, but more by default than strong conviction. Overall, there`s limited confidence in the East`s collective strength, with only three teams anticipated to surpass 47 wins. This seems counter-intuitive, given that five teams achieved this last season, and top Eastern teams typically benefit from easier schedules.
However, the Cavaliers, Knicks, and Magic all exhibit vulnerabilities. This opens a clear opportunity for teams like Orlando, following their bold acquisition of Desmond Bane, to challenge the top contenders. Similarly, the Atlanta Hawks, after aggressively securing Kristaps Porzingis from the Celtics and adding Nickeil Alexander-Walker, are poised for a significant push. While our panel believes both Orlando and Atlanta will improve their standing in the East, they are not expected to surpass the current top teams just yet.
(Analysis by Brian Windhorst)
The Play-in Group
- 6. Milwaukee Bucks: 46-36
- 7. Boston Celtics: 43-39
- 8. Philadelphia 76ers: 40-42
- 9. Miami Heat: 39-43
- 10. Indiana Pacers: 39-43
The Eastern Conference`s competitive balance has been significantly reshaped by a wave of star injuries and departures. Three critical Achilles tears during last season`s playoffs dramatically altered the outlook for key franchises: the Bucks saw Damian Lillard depart after his first-round injury, the Celtics dismantled their core following Jayson Tatum`s second-round Achilles tear, and the Pacers` promising future was paused when Tyrese Haliburton sustained the same injury in the NBA Finals. Consequently, these three teams, all recent conference champions, are now projected to contend in the mid-tier, battling to avoid the play-in tournament.
Two years ago, the Heat claimed the East finals, but their ability to replicate that success after trading Jimmy Butler III remains uncertain. The Philadelphia 76ers present the biggest projection challenge in the conference, primarily due to the ongoing questions surrounding Joel Embiid`s health. All teams in this projected play-in tier face significant uncertainties, positioning them below the conference`s elite contenders.
(Analysis by Jamal Collier)
The Bottom Five
- 11. Chicago Bulls: 36-46
- 12. Toronto Raptors: 33-49
- 13. Charlotte Hornets: 26-56
- 14. Brooklyn Nets: 23-59
- 15. Washington Wizards: 20-62
These five teams, currently occupying the bottom ranks of the Eastern Conference, can be categorized into three distinct groups.
First, the Toronto Raptors show potential to ascend into the play-in tier. Having opted not to trade Brandon Ingram last spring, instead signing him to a substantial extension, Toronto, a team operating in the luxury tax, would certainly not expect to be projected among the league`s bottom teams. Their failure to contend for a postseason spot would mark a significant disappointment.
Next, we find two teams at a pivotal juncture: the Chicago Bulls and the Charlotte Hornets. Both rosters feature talented players nearing their prime, such as Josh Giddey and Coby White for Chicago, and LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller for Charlotte. They also possess promising long-term prospects like Matas Buzelis, Noa Essengue, Tidjane Salaun, and Kon Knueppel. These teams could realistically compete for either a play-in berth or a high lottery draft pick.
Finally, there are the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards, whose paths are unequivocally clear. Both franchises are focused on securing a top-four pick in the highly anticipated 2026 NBA draft, which is expected to feature a strong class of prospects. This season will see them prioritize playing young talent, trading for future assets, and aiming for a more favorable lottery outcome next May.
(Analysis by Tim Bontemps)
Western Conference
The Contenders
- 1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18
- 2. Houston Rockets: 54-28
- 3. Denver Nuggets: 53-29
- 4. Minnesota Timberwolves: 51-31
- 5. LA Clippers: 50-32
- 6. Los Angeles Lakers: 50-32
Prepare for this declaration: The Oklahoma City Thunder stand as the undeniable front-runner in the Western Conference. Fresh from their historic achievement as the youngest NBA title team in nearly five decades, Oklahoma City boasts unparalleled continuity for a reigning champion, with its entire extended rotation returning. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the current scoring champion, MVP, and Finals MVP, is in the early stages of his prime, supported by rising talents Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, both recently extended on their rookie deals. A repeat flirtation with 70 wins would not be surprising. The Houston Rockets were a revelation last season, climbing to the West`s second seed before an early playoff exit. Houston has addressed its crucial need for a primary scorer by acquiring future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant, a move that also preserves their long-term contender aspirations.
The Denver Nuggets also focused on improving their bench depth. They achieved financial flexibility to bolster their roster by trading Michael Porter Jr. and a 2032 first-round pick for Cameron Johnson, potentially upgrading their small forward position. After a grueling seven-game Western Conference Semifinals series against the Thunder, Denver is committed to providing three-time MVP Nikola Jokic with a strong opportunity to secure another championship. The Los Angeles Lakers are arguably the West`s most compelling team, as they navigate the transition into the Luka Doncic era while all-time leading scorer LeBron James remains a prominent figure on the roster.
(Analysis by Tim MacMahon)
The Play-in Group
- 7. Golden State Warriors: 48-34
- 8. Dallas Mavericks: 44-38
- 9. San Antonio Spurs: 44-38
- 10. Memphis Grizzlies: 42-40
The Western Conference is exceptionally deep with contenders, meaning some strong teams will inevitably fall into the play-in bracket, facing additional games with their playoff aspirations on the line. This scenario is especially risky for veteran teams such as the Warriors and Mavericks, who will likely endure an intense final month scrambling for position, thereby missing out on the crucial week of pre-playoff rest afforded to top seeds.
Nevertheless, two teams will still advance from the play-in tournament. Last April, the seventh-seeded Warriors upset the second-seeded Rockets in the first round. If Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, and Draymond Green remain healthy, the top two seeds in the West would be wary of facing the Warriors emerging from the seventh or eighth spot this spring. A similar dynamic applies to the Mavericks, contingent on Kyrie Irving`s timely return from his ACL tear; by the end of the regular season, 13 months will have passed since his injury.
The remaining two teams in this play-in projection, the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies, seem to be headed in divergent directions. San Antonio is embarking on the third season of its deliberate rebuild, centered around Victor Wembanyama. After winning 22 and 34 games in his initial two seasons, our projections predict the Spurs will make a more significant leap, reaching the 40-win mark this season. Conversely, the Grizzlies traded core player Desmond Bane this summer for draft picks, a transaction that might indicate the franchise is preparing for a step backward.
(Analysis by Anthony Slater)
The Bottom Five
- 11. Portland Trail Blazers: 39-43
- 12. Sacramento Kings: 37-45
- 13. Phoenix Suns: 30-52
- 14. New Orleans Pelicans: 26-56
- 15. Utah Jazz: 19-63
The Portland Trail Blazers are awaiting a new owner, welcome back Damian Lillard, and feature intriguing rookie Yang Hansen, all contributing to a team striving for contender status. While Head Coach Chauncey Billups will guide a competitive squad with new acquisition Jrue Holiday, Portland`s long-term outlook appears more promising than their immediate prospects. The Western Conference has only grown stronger, and Lillard is sidelined for the entire season. The Blazers possess young talent in Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe, alongside developing prospects like Donovan Clingan. However, for Portland to realistically contend for a play-in or playoff spot, Scoot Henderson must fulfill the high potential that made him the third overall pick in 2023.
Sacramento begins a full season under new coach Doug Christie, who aims to maximize the potential of Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and DeMar DeRozan, with Dennis Schroder at point guard. Following Kevin Durant`s move to Houston and Bradley Beal`s to Los Angeles, Phoenix has commenced a rebuild centered on Devin Booker and a roster featuring numerous big men. New Orleans has acquired Jordan Poole and Jeremiah Fears, retaining Zion Williamson, though his health remains a persistent question. Completing the bottom five, Utah`s ongoing rebuild continues with new addition Ace Bailey, yet the Jazz appear destined to finish in the Western Conference`s lower ranks once more.
(Analysis by Ohm Youngmisuk)
