ESPN recently released its comprehensive NBA Summer Forecast, offering a detailed look at potential league outcomes for the 2025-26 season. This forecast covered everything from individual awards and championship favorites to expected team dynamics and potential upsets. Our staff meticulously voted on the likely final standings for all 30 NBA teams, providing a snapshot of how both the Eastern and Western Conferences might unfold. However, a widespread consensus doesn`t always translate into accurate predictions, as demonstrated by previous forecasts that missed the mark on major awards.
With that in mind, this analysis delves into five teams that are poised to surpass their projected win totals this season, along with five others that could unexpectedly fall short of expectations next spring.
Five Teams Poised to Exceed Expectations
Oklahoma City Thunder
Forecast: 64-18
Last season, Oklahoma City achieved a rare feat, becoming only the 22nd team in NBA history to win 65 or more games. Historically, only two franchises – the Chicago Bulls (1995-97) and the Golden State Warriors (2014-17) – have managed to sustain or improve upon such an elite win total in the subsequent season. The average drop for other teams after a 65-win campaign has been over seven wins.
Yet, the reigning champions are positioned to defy this trend. Several factors point to their continued dominance: a further weakened Eastern Conference (against which the Thunder held a remarkable 29-1 record last season), a fully returning roster expected to show continued growth, and increased court time for Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, who collectively missed 75 games last year. With both big men available, OKC boasted an incredible 59-10 record, a pace equivalent to 70 wins.
While a 70-win season remains a long shot, the Thunder could easily secure the league`s best record and become just the third team to achieve back-to-back 65-win seasons. NBA coaches, scouts, and executives are largely in agreement: betting against a Thunder repeat seems ill-advised.
LA Clippers
Forecast: 50-32
The Clippers were a pleasant surprise last season, reaching 50 wins despite being projected as a mere play-in contender. This was particularly impressive given Paul George`s departure to the Philadelphia 76ers and Kawhi Leonard’s limited availability (only 37 games), highlighting Coach Tyronn Lue`s exceptional leadership.
This summer, the Clippers executed a series of shrewd moves, transforming Norman Powell, Amir Coffey, Ben Simmons, and Patty Mills into Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, John Collins, and Brook Lopez. These additions have created one of the NBA`s deepest rosters, drawing widespread acclaim from rival scouts and executives for their strategic offseason.
In stark contrast to OKC`s youth, the Clippers` roster leans heavily on experience, with only three rotation players under 30 and none below 27. However, the team`s veteran depth and elite coaching staff are well-equipped to mitigate age and injury concerns, allowing them to confidently surpass last year`s win total.
Golden State Warriors
Forecast: 48-34
Similar to the Clippers, the Warriors are projected to match their previous season`s win total and also feature an aging roster. It’s important to note this projection is based on an incomplete roster, as Golden State awaits the resolution of Jonathan Kuminga`s restricted free agency.
This prediction is a strong endorsement of the burgeoning partnership between Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III. Despite the drama surrounding Butler last season, Golden State posted an impressive 22-5 record in the 27 games they played together. While age and injury risks persist (especially with the expected additions of veterans like Al Horford, De`Anthony Melton, and Gary Payton II once the Kuminga situation is resolved), the consistent health of Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green makes exceeding their forecast a likely outcome.
Miami Heat
Forecast: 39-43
Given the narrative surrounding Jimmy Butler, it might be surprising to see his former team on this list. Last year, amidst trade rumors and team instability, Miami stumbled to an uninspiring 37-45 record, narrowly making the play-in tournament as a 10th seed before being eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers.
However, the Heat`s acquisition of Norman Powell, a player who averaged 21.8 points per game last season with the Clippers, should significantly boost their 21st-ranked offense. Additionally, Miami`s abysmal 14-28 record in clutch games last season (the third-worst winning percentage in the NBA) presents a clear area for improvement. Combined with a perceived weakening of the Eastern Conference, Miami is a strong candidate to outperform their current forecast.
Toronto Raptors
Forecast: 33-49
Toronto concluded last season with a 30-52 record, a result heavily influenced by their efforts to improve draft positioning, compounded by Brandon Ingram not playing a single game with the team after a midseason trade from the New Orleans Pelicans.
It’s hard to envision a scenario where the Raptors remain in such a low-win bracket, especially within the context of the Eastern Conference, unless they suffer a severe wave of injuries. When former executive Masai Ujiri began rebuilding this roster a few years ago, the intention was a swift return to contention. The subsequent moves, including trading for and extending Ingram, align with this ambition. Teams that enter the season in the luxury tax, as Toronto is, typically do not expect to miss the play-in tournament entirely.
Five Teams Poised to Fall Short of Expectations
Minnesota Timberwolves
Forecast: 51-31
The Minnesota Timberwolves have only surpassed 51 wins twice in their franchise history: in 2004 and 2024. Last season, they reached their second consecutive Western Conference Finals but finished with 49 wins, placing sixth in the regular season standings.
This Timberwolves squad lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency this summer, necessitating a greater role for younger players like Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark. The team also heavily relies on the aging veterans Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. Should either veteran face significant time off the court due to injury, Minnesota lacks obvious replacements. Naz Reid, despite signing a lucrative five-year, $125 million deal, isn`t defensively strong enough to fully compensate for Gobert`s absence, and last year`s No. 8 pick, Rob Dillingham, remains an unproven commodity in taking over for Conley.
While the Timberwolves, led by Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, a versatile roster, and Chris Finch`s coaching, will undoubtedly be a tough playoff opponent, improving on last year`s win total will be challenging given the strength of the Western Conference and lingering roster questions.
Detroit Pistons
Forecast: 47-35
Last year was a remarkable turnaround for the Pistons, who vaulted from 14 to 44 wins, saw Cade Cunningham achieve All-NBA status, made the playoffs for the first time since 2019, and secured their first playoff victory since 2008.
Such dramatic leaps often lead to a “consolidation year,” and Detroit`s offseason strategy reflects an awareness of this. While they made moves like swapping Duncan Robinson for Tim Hardaway Jr. and Caris LeVert for Malik Beasley, and expect a healthy Jaden Ivey to fill the void left by Dennis Schroder, this team will continue to rely on the development of young talents like Ivey, Ron Holland II, Jalen Duren, and Ausar Thompson around Cunningham.
Detroit is certainly capable of challenging for a top-six playoff spot. However, achieving their forecast of 47 wins might be a stretch, even in a weaker Eastern Conference, suggesting they could fall slightly short of this specific mark despite remaining competitive.
Dallas Mavericks
Forecast: 44-38
The Dallas Mavericks are set to be one of the NBA`s most intriguing teams this season. Their narrative includes integrating Cooper Flagg into the league, experimenting with exceptionally large lineups, navigating the ongoing implications of the Luka Doncic trade, and awaiting Kyrie Irving`s potential return from a torn ACL sustained in March.
Currently, D`Angelo Russell stands as the only truly reliable ball handler on the roster, a capable rotation player but perhaps better suited for a backup role. This, coupled with Anthony Davis’s recurring health issues (missing six weeks post-Dallas debut with a groin injury, followed by retina surgery in July), makes surpassing a 44-win season a formidable challenge in the highly competitive Western Conference.
San Antonio Spurs
Forecast: 44-38
In his second season, Victor Wembanyama has already solidified his reputation as the NBA`s preeminent defensive force.
Despite Wembanyama`s undeniable brilliance, the Spurs` roster still feels like it`s in a formative stage rather than a completed product. A key challenge lies in integrating their guard trio of De`Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle. All three are highly talented but have questionable shooting abilities, and figuring out how they will collectively fit and play alongside Wembanyama is a major question mark for many around the league, impacting the team`s future roster construction.
This presents a significant puzzle for first-time head coach Mitch Johnson to solve. While Wembanyama`s individual genius could conceivably elevate the team beyond expectations, the numerous unanswered questions in San Antonio make predicting they fall short of this forecast a safer bet.
Portland Trail Blazers
Forecast: 39-43
Portland concluded last season with 36 wins, largely due to a late-season surge against teams resting starters or strategically positioning themselves for draft picks.
While the Blazers did acquire Jrue Holiday in exchange for Anfernee Simons this summer, it remains unclear where significant additional wins will originate. The team faces the task of harmonizing seasoned veterans like Holiday and Jerami Grant with a promising young core featuring Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Donovan Clingan. Furthermore, Portland is banking on the defensive improvements seen in the latter half of last season (tying for fourth-best in the NBA from January 15th onwards) to be more indicative of their true capability than their 25th-ranked defense in the first half of 2024-25.
The Blazers possess intriguing defensive building blocks in Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, and Clingan, and replacing Simons with a true defensive stopper like Holiday is a clear upgrade. However, in an unforgiving Western Conference, the most realistic outlook is that Portland will struggle to improve upon last season`s win total.
