NBA Playoffs 2025: Previewing the Conference Finals

Analysis by NBA Insiders

Nearly a month into the 2025 NBA playoffs, only four teams remain, each standing just one series away from the NBA Finals. These hopefuls are the Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Pacers, who previously eliminated the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, went on to upset the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers to secure their second consecutive trip to the conference finals. They are set to begin the Eastern Conference Finals against the Knicks on Wednesday at Madison Square Garden. New York is looking to reach its first NBA Finals since 2000 after dispatching the defending champion Boston Celtics in the previous round.

Out West, the Thunder swept the Memphis Grizzlies in Round 1 and then overcame the Denver Nuggets in a hard-fought seven-game series. Awaiting them on Tuesday are the Timberwolves, who advanced by defeating both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in five games each.

With the ultimate goal of hoisting the Larry O`Brien Trophy within reach, our panel of NBA experts provides insights into each team`s playoff journey, current buzz around the matchups, and predictions for what to expect from these four contenders.

Eastern Conference

New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers

How did the Pacers get here?

The Pacers are back in the conference finals for the second year in a row, but their path this season has shown significant growth. Their previous conference finals appearance was marked by questions due to injuries impacting other teams in the East. That run ended in a sweep by Boston.

This season began slowly for Indiana, with a 16-18 record by January 1. However, since the start of the new year, they have been one of the league`s best teams, boasting a 42-16 record including the postseason. They defeated Milwaukee in the first round and then upset the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round, despite not being favored in any game. While their opponents in both series faced significant injury issues – including key All-Stars like Damian Lillard, Darius Garland, and Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley missing games – the Pacers effectively capitalized, winning both series in five games.

Tyrese Haliburton has hit two game-winning shots this postseason and is averaging 17.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and a playoff-leading 9.3 assists, fueling Indiana`s high-powered offense. Building on the confidence gained from their playoff run last year, the Pacers are determined to make another deep push this season.

How did the Knicks get here?

New York`s journey to the conference finals has been quite remarkable. While they were a solid team during the regular season, they weren`t consistently dominant, holding a modest 15-13 record after the All-Star break. They generally beat weaker teams but struggled against top competition, finishing with a 15-23 record against teams with winning records – the lowest among teams securing home-court advantage in the first round.

Perhaps more surprising, New York lost all 10 games against the league`s three 60-win teams this season. They were 0-8 against the top-seeded Cavaliers and second-seeded Celtics, marking the first time a No. 3 seed went winless against the top two seeds in its conference since 1984. Many of those games were not competitive.

However, the Knicks have shown a resilient, never-give-up attitude, evident in their performance against Boston. Additionally, backup center Mitchell Robinson has become a major factor, dominating on the boards through two series after missing the majority of the regular season. This relatively new-look roster seems to be hitting its stride at the perfect time, which they will likely need to compete with a Pacers team that has played at an elite level for months.

What we`re hearing on the series

Sources discussing this series frequently highlight the critical role of playing style. The team that successfully dictates the pace and nature of the games is likely to advance to the NBA Finals for the first time in over two decades.

“These teams are built fundamentally differently,” observed one scout. “[New York] is top-heavy, having prioritized elite talent through trades [like Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns] at the expense of roster depth. [Indiana] has a more balanced roster and leverages its depth to wear opponents down.”

New York, with its methodical, Jalen Brunson-led offense, prefers a half-court battle. Indiana, conversely, is perhaps the league`s most effective team at maintaining a fast-break offense in the playoffs, using pace to tire out opponents as the series progresses. This has been the Pacers` successful strategy in their playoff runs over the past two years, winning four series this way, and is expected to be key here.

The teams appear fairly matched in many areas. New York has Mikal Bridges to defend Tyrese Haliburton and OG Anunoby for Pascal Siakam. Karl-Anthony Towns and Myles Turner offer comparable options at center. However, last year, Indiana`s Andrew Nembhard, a capable defensive guard, struggled to contain Brunson in the conference semifinals. For Indiana to win, this matchup needs to improve.

“Can he do a better job on Brunson?” another scout pondered. “That could determine the series outcome.”

Another key matchup highlighted is Mitchell Robinson`s potential impact for New York. Will he dominate the paint as he did against Boston, or can the Pacers` pace and transition game limit his influence? The second unit matchup between Robinson and Thomas Bryant seems to favor New York heading into the series.

Will New York`s starting lineup be able to keep pace with Indiana`s?

Indiana boasts arguably the best high-minute lineup in the playoffs: Haliburton, Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Siakam, and Turner. This group posted a plus-11.9 net rating in the regular season and has been even better in the playoffs at plus-22.1. In contrast, the Knicks` starting five has been outscored in the playoffs, with a minus-4.7 net rating, following a modest plus-3.3 in the regular season.

Essentially, the Pacers` primary lineup has consistently dominated opponents, allowing them to build leads and finish games strongly. This group is athletic, balanced, and possesses a clear identity. New York`s lineup, despite its talent, has often fallen behind in games this postseason, requiring late comebacks. While the Knicks` starting five has performed well in stretches, the Pacers` unit has been significantly more consistent throughout the season when healthy. This difference could give Indiana a crucial advantage, as New York`s tendency to start games trailing by double digits might eventually prove too difficult to overcome.

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

How did the Timberwolves get here?

The Timberwolves have reached the conference finals for the second consecutive season, a first in franchise history. However, they aren`t approaching their matchup with the Thunder as if they`ve already achieved their goal.

“Nobody expected us to beat the Lakers, no one expected us to beat the Warriors,” Minnesota guard Donte DiVincenzo commented after eliminating Golden State. “We know that no one is going to pick us [against the Thunder], and we`re fine with that.”

Embracing their underdog status, the Wolves started the postseason on the road and soundly defeated the Lakers in Game 1, then clinched the series with three more close wins to advance in five games. They received a fortunate break when Stephen Curry was sidelined after Game 1 of the conference semifinals and dominated the Warriors from the second half of Game 4 onwards, setting up the series with the Thunder.

While Minnesota finished the regular season strongly with a 17-4 run and has been dominant in the postseason, it took them time to truly emerge as a contender. They began the season 8-10 and were just 22-21 past the halfway point before the pieces truly clicked. Key additions like Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle, acquired in an offseason trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to New York, have been crucial. DiVincenzo provides valuable two-way play off the bench, and the 30-year-old Randle has played arguably the best basketball of his career this postseason, averaging 23.9 points on 50.9% shooting, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists.

The Wolves also rely on their core constants: 23-year-old superstar Anthony Edwards, defensive anchors Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert, and the steady leadership of veteran point guard Mike Conley and coach Chris Finch. Edwards, challenged by Finch to improve his decision-making as the team increasingly relies on him to direct the offense, continues to set the tone with his infectious confidence. After defeating the Warriors, he made it clear that their goals extend beyond just reaching the conference finals: “There is no satisfaction,” Edwards stated. “We haven`t done anything yet.”

How did the Thunder get here?

Oklahoma City`s dominant Game 7 victory over the Nuggets was a perfect demonstration of their path to this stage. Their formula for success involves the highly efficient brilliance of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams serving as a versatile secondary star, and a relentless, suffocating defense that consistently disrupts opponents.

This approach led the Thunder to a franchise-record 68 wins in the regular season and an NBA record for point differential, averaging a plus-12.9 margin. Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to receive his first MVP award soon, largely due to averaging a league-leading 32.7 points on a career-best 63.7% true shooting percentage. While his scoring efficiency has been slightly below his regular-season standard in the playoffs (29.0 points on 58.6% true shooting), he elevated his game when needed most in the second round. After falling behind Denver 2-1, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30.8 points on 65.6% true shooting in the final four games, hitting crucial shots to close out Games 4 and 5.

Jalen Williams had a strong Game 7 performance with 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting and seven assists, bouncing back from an otherwise inconsistent offensive series. He struggled in the previous three games, shooting just 10-of-43 from the field, including 3-of-16 in the Game 6 loss. As a first-time All-Star this season, Oklahoma City will need him to consistently perform at that level in the Western Conference Finals.

Fast breaks are key to Williams` game, where he excels in the open court. Many of his successful plays in Game 7 originated from defensive stops, as the Thunder converted 23 Nuggets turnovers into 37 points. Oklahoma City didn`t just have the NBA`s stingiest defense by a significant margin this season; their defense often generates their best offense. They led the league in turnovers forced (17.0) and points off turnovers (21.8) in the regular season. These numbers have increased to 18.3 turnovers forced and 24.7 points off turnovers during their run to the conference finals.

What we`re hearing on the series

Oklahoma City has been the league`s top team all season, winning 68 games, boasting impressive two-way versatility, and featuring the likely MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. However, this hasn`t stopped scouts from suggesting the Thunder could fall short of their first Finals appearance since 2012 against a Minnesota team that won its first two series convincingly in five games each.

“That series is going to be incredibly fun,” one scout commented. “Minnesota is big and long and attacks you in various ways.”

“Like any young team, OKC has to earn its way, and getting through [Nikola] Jokic is definitely part of taking that next step.”

Minnesota`s size and strength across the roster – featuring large guards and rotating bigs like Naz Reid, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert – matches up well against Oklahoma City`s desire to make games physical and gritty, which is central to the Thunder`s defensive identity this season.

However, one reason the Thunder needed seven games to defeat Denver was inconsistent offense, particularly from three-point range. This was notably true for Jalen Williams, who followed a 33-point performance in Game 3 by shooting a combined 10-for-43 in Games 4, 5, and 6. Oklahoma City needs him to be a consistent secondary perimeter scoring threat alongside Gilgeous-Alexander.

“Oklahoma City has the capability for more explosive scoring nights,” another scout said. “I thought they would have more offensive success against Denver than they did.”

“I believe OKC has the most talented roster in the NBA, but there`s uncertainty about whether guys two through eight can consistently make enough shots. If they can, they could win convincingly. But if not, it will be a tough series.”

Will the Wolves win a game of zones?

The Thunder`s inconsistent outside shooting prompted the Nuggets to frequently use zone defense in their series. In fact, the 55 zone possessions Denver played in Game 4 tied the most by any team in a single game across the regular season and playoffs, according to GeniusIQ tracking.

Based on this tracking, Oklahoma City averaged just 1.04 points per possession against zone defense over the first six games of the series, compared to 1.07 against Denver`s traditional man-to-man. The Thunder seemed to figure things out in their decisive Game 7 victory, but that came against a compromised Denver team with Aaron Gordon playing through a hamstring injury.

Given this, it`s highly probable that Minnesota will employ zone defenses after having nearly a week off to prepare. The Timberwolves played 52 zone possessions across their four regular-season matchups with Oklahoma City, per GeniusIQ, significantly more than against any other opponent.

Minnesota coach Chris Finch notably relied on zone defense in back-to-back games against OKC after the All-Star break. The zone strategy was instrumental in helping the Timberwolves overcome a 22-point fourth-quarter deficit in the second game, which they won in overtime. According to GeniusIQ, the Thunder scored only seven points on 17 possessions against the zone in the final period and overtime of that contest.