The NBA Conference Semifinals mark a significant increase in both the stakes and the level of play. Few expected teams from the play-in tournament (except maybe the Golden State Warriors) to contend for the 2025 championship. However, with the playoff field narrowed down to just eight teams, each remaining contender has a real shot at the title.
The start of the second round highlighted this parity, with lower-seeded road teams defeating the top seeds: the No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers, No. 2 Boston Celtics, and No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder, all in Game 1 of their respective series. With the ultimate goal—the Larry O`Brien Trophy—now clearly in view for June, let`s analyze the requirements for each team to claim the championship. What strengths must they leverage? Which weaknesses must they address? And what strategic matchups should they target or sidestep?
Here’s a look at how each of the remaining teams, ranked by their title odds according to ESPN`s Basketball Power Index (BPI), could win the 2025 NBA championship.
Oklahoma City Thunder
BPI Title Odds: 39.9% (Highest)
- To reach conference finals: 63.0%
- To reach NBA Finals: 51.5%
- To win 2025 title: 39.9%
Statistical models heavily favor the Thunder for the title, and with good reason. Oklahoma City achieved an NBA record point differential (+12.9 per game), is led by likely MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and features one of the league`s top defenses historically. However, their route to a championship may be tougher than their regular-season performance suggests. Navigating a challenging playoff field is difficult: they had mixed regular-season records against potential Western Conference opponents like Denver (2-2), Minnesota (2-2), and Golden State (1-2). They also lack the playoff experience of these rivals, which was evident in their unusual late-game collapse during the Game 1 loss to Denver.
For the Thunder to win their first championship since 1979 (as the Seattle SuperSonics), their stars need to perform better. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been in a minor shooting slump during the playoffs (45% effective field goal percentage), down from his exceptional 57% in the regular season. His key teammates also struggled significantly in Game 1: Jalen Williams shot 5-for-20, and Chet Holmgren scored only 12 points, missing critical free throws late. Their second-round exit last season against Dallas was partly due to the supporting players not capitalizing when defenses focused on SGA. Williams and Holmgren must elevate their game to be effective second and third options for a championship team.
The Thunder also need to improve their rebounding; despite adding Isaiah Hartenstein to counter size issues seen against Dallas last postseason, Denver secured 21 offensive boards in Game 1. Nevertheless, a single late-game falter doesn`t erase their overall title chances. On paper, they are still the NBA`s best team. The challenge now is turning that potential into a championship reality.
Indiana Pacers
BPI Title Odds: 12.9%
- To reach conference finals: 77.8%
- To reach NBA Finals: 37.0%
- To win 2025 title: 12.9%
For months, the Pacers have performed like an elite NBA team. They ended the regular season with a 34-14 record, achieving the league`s sixth-best net rating and ranking in the top 10 for both offense and defense during that stretch. This high level of play has continued into the playoffs; they easily defeated the Bucks and took control of their second-round series by winning twice on Cleveland`s home court.
Indiana`s improved performance coincided with the return of key role players Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, who were previously sidelined by injuries. The starting unit featuring them alongside Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner posted a +11.1 net rating in the regular season, improving to a +18.2 net rating in the playoffs, the second-best among lineups with significant minutes. The Pacers` core roster offers a well-rounded mix of skills: shooting, playmaking, fast pace, and perimeter defense. Coach Rick Carlisle`s bench also provides valuable contributions from players like T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, and Obi Toppin, all of whom have had multiple double-digit scoring games in the postseason.
Crucially, Indiana understands its identity, which allows them to control the game`s speed and disrupt opponents` flow. Led by Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers consistently create high-quality scoring opportunities and minimize turnovers, ensuring a strong offensive foundation each game. Their defense is also significantly better than last season, where they struggled to get enough stops, particularly against Boston in the Conference Finals. In 2023-24, their defensive rating was 24th in the regular season and 13th among playoff teams; this season, Indiana is far more balanced on both ends.
Boston Celtics
BPI Title Odds: 11.9%
- To reach conference finals: 47.9%
- To reach NBA Finals: 27.3%
- To win 2025 title: 11.9%
The core of the Celtics remains intact from their 2024 championship run; all nine players who logged significant minutes last postseason are back this spring. Coach Joe Mazzulla has maintained the same rotation that went 16-3 on their way to the title. Boston possesses a significant statistical edge nightly due to their volume and accuracy from three-point range, attempting and making more threes than any other team. Alongside the Thunder, they were one of only two teams this season to rank in the top five for both offensive and defensive rating.
Beyond their efficient system, the Celtics boast immense talent, featuring five top-tier starters and excellent role players like Al Horford and Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks eliminated, Jayson Tatum stands out as arguably the best player remaining in the Eastern Conference. Tatum has elevated his game since winning the title in 2024 (though not Finals MVP). After sitting out Game 2 of their first-round sweep against Orlando, Tatum finished the series strongly, scoring 36, 37, and 35 points in the final three games, demonstrating his ability to score effortlessly even against the league`s second-best defense.
Despite losing Game 1 to the New York Knicks, Boston is still strongly favored to advance; they swept the Knicks in the regular season and likely would have won Game 1 comfortably if not for exceptionally poor shooting luck. GeniusIQ data showed the Celtics performed 15% worse than their expected effective field goal percentage in Game 1 based on shot quality, their lowest mark all season. Had they shot to their regular-season averages, they would have scored roughly 30 more points. This suggests the Celtics` shooting is highly likely to improve. When it does, they will be well-positioned to become the first team since the Kevin Durant-led Warriors to win back-to-back championships.
Denver Nuggets
BPI Title Odds: 10.5%
- To reach conference finals: 37.0%
- To reach NBA Finals: 21.2%
- To win 2025 title: 10.5%
Nikola Jokic is widely considered the world`s best player, and the strategy that secured the Nuggets the 2023 championship remains effective, as shown by his dominant 40-point, 22-rebound, 6-assist performance in Game 1 against Oklahoma City. However, Jokic needs help; for Denver to win a second title in three years, the supporting cast must deliver. So far, they have contributed effectively: Aaron Gordon has hit multiple game-winning shots, and Jamal Murray`s efficient 43-point game in the first round`s Game 5 was arguably the best individual performance this postseason.
Denver`s offense is as formidable as ever when their top players are playing. The Murray-Jokic pick-and-roll is still nearly impossible to defend, generating an impressive 1.35 points per possession in the playoffs, per GeniusIQ. The Nuggets` starting five has a +12.9 net rating this postseason. A variation with Russell Westbrook replacing Michael Porter Jr. is even better at +23.8. A concern for the Nuggets is potential fatigue as the playoffs progress, given their limited rotation and needing seven games to win their first-round series before facing the tough Thunder matchup.
Despite this, it hasn`t stopped the defending champions yet. In Game 1 against the Thunder, Denver scored 71 points in the second half. In their last regular-season meeting in March, Jokic and Murray combined for 69 points, and the Nuggets shot a remarkable 56% from three (18-for-32). While they won`t maintain that shooting percentage consistently, they`ve shown they can dismantle even the league`s top defense. If Denver can overcome Oklahoma City, they are capable of beating any opponent. Their path might be easier if Golden State defeats Minnesota in the other Western Conference series, as the Timberwolves defeated Denver in all four regular-season games and eliminated them in seven games last spring.
Golden State Warriors
BPI Title Odds: 10.5%
- To reach conference finals: 66.3%
- To reach NBA Finals: 21.1%
- To win 2025 title: 10.5%
Golden State possesses unmatched high-level playoff experience. Three players still active in the 2025 postseason—Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney—have won at least three championships. Head coach Steve Kerr adds to this with nine rings (five as a player, four as a coach). While Jimmy Butler III hasn`t won a title, he has been the top player on two surprising Finals teams.
To win another championship, the Warriors must first navigate Curry`s absence due to a strained hamstring expected to keep him out for at least a week. They hope Butler can lead the offense, supported by contributions from Buddy Hield (a Game 7 standout), Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody. Defensively, Golden State has been elite since the All-Star break, with the Butler-Green duo anchoring a unit that shut down the Rockets in the first round and limited the Timberwolves in Game 1.
Kevon Looney`s role is also crucial; although the Warriors prefer playing small, the veteran center was vital against size-advantage teams like the Rockets and the Timberwolves` Rudy Gobert, and his presence will be needed against centers like Jokic or the Thunder`s big lineup in the next round. The Warriors are adaptable and experienced in making adjustments during a series. Another advantage is Kerr`s understanding of managing the postseason as a long-term campaign, not just game-by-game. This is particularly important while Curry is injured.
Unlike other top contenders, Golden State may not have the raw ceiling to easily win a title. They lack consistent offensive punch beyond their primary stars, and Curry`s injury makes reaching the Conference Finals challenging. However, if they can survive until his return, they are capable of stringing together enough wins. In a Game 7 situation, their experience makes them a strong favorite.
New York Knicks
BPI Title Odds: 7.2%
- To reach conference finals: 52.1%
- To reach NBA Finals: 22.5%
- To win 2025 title: 7.2%
It`s hard to envision the Knicks winning their first championship since 1973, even after their surprising comeback victory in Boston in Game 1. The Celtics likely would have won Game 1 without their poor shooting luck, and they swept the regular-season series against New York. Furthermore, the Knicks had difficulty defeating the sixth-seeded Detroit Pistons in the first round, winning their four games by a combined total of just 17 points, compared to much larger margins for Cleveland (122), Boston (66), and Indiana (54).
However, the Knicks` playoff performance so far, driven by Clutch Player of the Year Jalen Brunson, shows they can win tight contests through sheer determination. More clutch performances from Brunson and his teammates, combined with some external good fortune, could provide a path to a title. After all, last year`s Knicks playoff run was derailed by numerous injuries. Could this postseason see injuries benefit New York instead?
The Knicks remain underdogs against Boston, but injuries are affecting the Celtics: Tatum and Jrue Holiday have missed games, Jaylen Brown is dealing with a knee issue, and Kristaps Porzingis left Game 1 early with an illness. While Boston is deeper and more talented, the matchup becomes much more balanced if Boston is missing a star and others are playing hurt. If the Knicks manage to defeat a weakened Celtics team, and if Indiana simultaneously upsets Cleveland, New York could gain home-court advantage in the Conference Finals, presenting a genuine opportunity to end their 52-year championship drought.
Cleveland Cavaliers
BPI Title Odds: 5.2%
- To reach conference finals: 22.2%
- To reach NBA Finals: 13.2%
- To win 2025 title: 5.2%
What seemed like a promising season just days ago has quickly become challenging for Cleveland, as injuries and the surging Pacers have put the East`s top seed in jeopardy. Darius Garland missed the first two games against Indiana, Evan Mobley and De`Andre Hunter were out for Game 2, and Tyrese Haliburton`s game-winning three left the Cavaliers in a 2-0 deficit. How can Cleveland recover and get their championship pursuit back on track? The primary factor is getting healthy.
The depleted Cavaliers led for most of Game 2 behind Donovan Mitchell`s 48 points, but this isn`t sustainable, especially considering how tired Mitchell and Jarrett Allen appeared late. Cleveland requires Mobley`s defensive presence, Garland`s playmaking, and Hunter`s shooting, plus the depth they provide, to mount a comeback. Other factors are favorable for Cleveland. Their shooting is likely to improve; they ranked second in the regular season at 38% from three, hit 44% in their first-round sweep of Miami, but have shot only 26% through two games against Indiana. Conversely, the Pacers` 47% three-point shooting so far is expected to decline.
If Cleveland`s injured players return (an extra day off before Game 3 helps) and shooting percentages normalize, they have a chance to overcome the deficit, even with games moving to Indiana. It will be difficult, but five teams have previously won a playoff series after losing the first two games at home, most recently the 2020-21 Clippers against Dallas. Projecting Cleveland`s path beyond the Conference Semifinals seems overly optimistic presently, but a fully healthy Cavaliers team won 64 games with the league`s second-best point differential this season. That team is capable of winning it all, assuming they can get past Indiana. Time, however, is running short.
Minnesota Timberwolves
BPI Title Odds: 1.9% (Lowest)
- To reach conference finals: 33.7%
- To reach NBA Finals: 6.3%
- To win 2025 title: 1.9%
The Timberwolves entered the playoffs on a strong note, finishing the regular season 17-4 and then comfortably defeating the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. Minnesota`s dominant defense limited the Lakers, featuring offensive stars LeBron James and Luka Doncic, to under 100 points in three out of five games.
With Anthony Edwards emerging as a superstar, Julius Randle playing the best playoff basketball of his career, Jaden McDaniels fitting the ideal 3-and-D role, and strong bench players like Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Minnesota has excellent shooting and size throughout its roster. Despite losing Game 1 to a Warriors team missing Stephen Curry for part of the game, their odds improved significantly once news broke that Curry would be out long-term.
However, the Timberwolves` own three-point shooting needs to improve for them to advance further. They defeated the Lakers despite shooting just 32% from deep as a team, compared to their 38% (fourth in the NBA) in the regular season. In Game 1 against Golden State, they started 0-for-16 and made only five total threes. Specifically, DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, and Mike Conley have shot a combined 21% from three-point range (17-for-82) this postseason. At least one of them must start making open shots to provide a reliable backcourt partner for Edwards in crucial moments.
Minnesota`s path would also be eased if Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets could upset the Thunder, as the Timberwolves have had strong success against Denver over the past year. Nevertheless, Minnesota is playing with high confidence and possesses the athleticism and defensive capability to pose a serious challenge to any opponent in a seven-game series. Last season, they made significant progress, reaching the Conference Finals before tiring out. This season, they might be better equipped to manage their energy throughout a long playoff run, a daunting prospect for any team they face.
