NBA Offseason Survey: Best & Worst Deals, LeBron’s Future

As the new NBA season approaches, with media days commencing and the league gearing up for next month`s regular season tip-off, we delve into an exclusive survey. Twenty coaches, scouts, and executives from across the league shared their insights on the past offseason`s most significant trades and signings, offering predictions for the upcoming 2025-26 campaign. This report details their views on which teams excelled or faltered, identifies current and future top players (including leading American talents), and forecasts who will ultimately hoist the Larry O`Brien trophy next June.

Who will be the MVP?

• Nikola Jokic: 7
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 5
• Luka Doncic: 4
• Victor Wembanyama: 2
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1
• Anthony Edwards: 1

Unsurprisingly, Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder, who dominated MVP voting in the previous two seasons, lead this category by a slim margin. A Western Conference scout commented on Jokic, stating, “He`s the premier player, and his team is poised for improvement.” Luka Doncic also garnered significant votes, with expectations that a healthy season with the Los Angeles Lakers, following his impactful midseason trade, could elevate him into a formidable three-way MVP contention. An Eastern executive noted Doncic`s current condition: “He`s in peak physical form and highly driven.”

Who will be the best player in 2030?

• Victor Wembanyama: 16
• Luka Doncic: 2
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 1
• Jayson Tatum: 1

Victor Wembanyama continues his dominance in this category for the second straight year, raising questions only about the longevity of his lead. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic received some recognition, the most notable vote went to Jayson Tatum, who is sidelined for the current season due to a torn right Achilles in May. A Western Conference assistant coach highlighted Tatum`s unique skill set: “His offensive versatility is unparalleled. He embodies what every team desires: a 6-foot-10 player who can consistently hit threes, drive to the basket, and draw fouls.”

Who is the best American player right now?

• Stephen Curry: 11
• Anthony Edwards: 8
• Donovan Mitchell: 1

Had Jayson Tatum not suffered his injury, this question would likely have been omitted, as the Boston Celtics` superstar wing was fresh off a fourth consecutive First-Team All-NBA selection and an NBA championship. However, with Tatum out, the distinction falls to Stephen Curry, even at 37 years old and entering his 17th NBA season. An Eastern Conference scout remarked on Curry`s enduring threat: “He remains the player who instills the most fear in me.”

Who will be the best American player in five years?

• Anthony Edwards: 11
• Cooper Flagg: 5
• Jayson Tatum: 2
• Paolo Banchero: 1
• Jalen Williams: 1

Anthony Edwards, at 24 years old, having recently secured a gold medal with Team USA and led the Minnesota Timberwolves to consecutive Western Conference Finals appearances, stands as the clear frontrunner in this category. A Western Conference scout affirmed, “I don`t envision anyone surpassing him by then. It`s also premature to burden Cooper Flagg with that expectation before his NBA debut. Therefore, Edwards holds this position until demonstrated otherwise.” Nevertheless, Cooper Flagg, the No. 1 overall pick by the Mavericks in June, also garnered support from those confident in his potential. An Eastern executive praised Flagg, stating, “He possesses a complete skill set.”

Who will be Rookie of the Year?

• Cooper Flagg: 19
• Kon Knueppel: 1

As anticipated, Cooper Flagg overwhelmingly dominated the Rookie of the Year predictions, positioning himself as one of the most eagerly awaited NBA prospects in recent memory, second perhaps only to Victor Wembanyama. The sole dissenting vote came from a Western Conference assistant coach, who favored Flagg`s former Duke teammate, Kon Knueppel, anticipating a strong inaugural season with the Charlotte Hornets. The coach reasoned, “He`ll be on a rebuilding team, receive significant ball-handling duties, and consequently, produce impressive statistics.”

Who will be the best player from the class of 2025 … in five years?

• Cooper Flagg: 18
• Dylan Harper: 1
• Ace Bailey: 1

Cooper Flagg once more emerged as the clear favorite for this projection. However, Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, former Rutgers teammates, each secured a single vote. A Western Conference scout highlighted Harper`s potential, noting, “As a point guard joining Victor Wembanyama, his path to success is well-defined. If Flagg had landed on a struggling team, he would be the unequivocal choice. However, his current team environment might shape his development uniquely.” Regarding Bailey, an Eastern executive drew parallels to Anthony Edwards at the start of his career: “He`s immensely gifted but comes with uncertainties. Yet, his natural ability to create shots at his size is an intrinsic talent.”

Where will LeBron James be at the start of the 2026-27 season?

• Los Angeles Lakers: 7
• Retired: 5
• Cleveland Cavaliers: 4
• Golden State Warriors: 2
• Dallas Mavericks: 1
• Miami Heat: 1

As LeBron James embarks on his 23rd NBA season, his future remains a subject of intense speculation, particularly after the contract drama this past summer. Survey respondents showed no clear consensus on his destination for the 2026-27 season. An Eastern Conference scout encapsulated the prevailing sentiment: “If presented with the choice between the Lakers and the rest of the league, I`d bet on the field. However, I`d favor the Lakers over any individual team, primarily due to their clear financial capability to retain him.” A minority of respondents, however, believe this season will mark James`s final year in the league. A Western Conference scout stated, “It simply feels like this is where his storied career will conclude.”

Which team had the best offseason?

• Atlanta Hawks: 7
• Denver Nuggets: 4
• Houston Rockets: 3
• Oklahoma City Thunder: 2
• Orlando Magic: 2
• LA Clippers: 1
• Los Angeles Lakers: 1

The Atlanta Hawks, often overlooked since their 2021 Eastern Conference Finals appearance, garnered significant acclaim for their active offseason. Their moves included acquiring Kristaps Porzingis, signing Nickiel Alexander-Walker, and securing a highly valuable future lottery pick from the New Orleans Pelicans during a draft-night trade. One executive lauded their strategy, stating, “I believe they`ll emerge as one of the top teams in the East, having masterfully leveraged all available resources.” The Denver Nuggets also earned praise for bolstering Nikola Jokic`s supporting cast with key additions like Bruce Brown Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas, and acquiring Cameron Johnson from the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for Michael Porter Jr. Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets were recognized for their monumental trade to bring Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns.

Which team had the worst offseason?

• New Orleans Pelicans: 9
• Phoenix Suns: 4
• Sacramento Kings: 2
• Chicago Bulls: 1
• Los Angeles Lakers: 1
• Memphis Grizzlies: 1
• Philadelphia 76ers: 1
• Portland Trail Blazers: 1

The New Orleans Pelicans overwhelmingly topped this category, with respondents criticizing both the steep cost they incurred on draft night to select Derik Queen, and their acquisition of Jordan Poole in exchange for C.J. McCollum`s expiring contract. An Eastern executive expressed confusion, remarking, “I simply can`t comprehend their strategy.” The Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings, the other teams receiving multiple votes, were faulted for their broader team direction. An East executive commented on Phoenix, “Any opportunity they might have had has now vanished.”

What was the best move of the offseason?

• Rockets trading for Durant: 11
• Magic trading for Desmond Bane: 5
• Hawks trading for the Pelicans` draft pick: 2
• Nuggets trading for Cam Johnson: 1
• Lakers re-signing Doncic: 1

Kevin Durant`s blockbuster trade to Houston, involving the offseason`s most prominent player movement, was overwhelmingly selected as the best maneuver of the summer. A Western Conference scout explained, “Their playoff shortcomings stemmed from a lack of a primary scoring option, a void now filled by Kevin Durant.” Orlando`s acquisition of Desmond Bane also received substantial recognition. Bane`s addition addresses the Magic`s backcourt shooting deficiencies, providing a player with a career 41% three-point accuracy on over six attempts per game. A Western assistant coach praised the move: “He is the ideal complementary piece to develop alongside their young core.”

What was the worst move of the offseason?

• Pelicans trading an unprotected pick swap: 11
• Trail Blazers trading for Jrue Holiday: 3
• Suns waiving and stretching Bradley Beal: 3
• Pacers losing Myles Turner in free agency: 1
• Suns trading for Mark Williams: 1
• Kings signing Dennis Schroder: 1

The Pelicans` decision to trade an unprotected pick swap for a mere 10-spot improvement in last June`s draft was overwhelmingly considered the worst offseason move. Two other widely criticized actions were Portland`s trade for Jrue Holiday and the Suns` choice to waive and stretch nearly $100 million from Bradley Beal`s contract. A Western assistant coach expressed bewilderment regarding Portland`s Holiday acquisition: “I simply don`t understand their objective. They already have too many guards vying for playing time.”

What was the most surprising move of the offseason?

• Turner to Bucks/Lillard waive and stretch: 16
• Hawks signing Alexander-Walker: 1
• Knicks firing coach Tom Thibodeau: 1
• Trail Blazers trading for Holiday: 1
• Jonathan Kuminga still with the Warriors: 1

The Milwaukee Bucks` dual actions – signing Myles Turner and simultaneously waiving and stretching Damian Lillard`s remaining $112 million contract – were by far the most astonishing moves. This surprise stemmed from the record amount of dead money now on the Bucks` payroll and the widespread expectation that Turner would re-sign with Indiana.

What was the biggest trend of the offseason?

• Teams trying to avoid the aprons/financial flexibility: 7
• Teams prioritizing size: 6
• Teams prioritizing youth and depth: 4
• Free agency continuing to be a nonfactor: 1
• Restricted free agents getting squeezed: 1
• Waiving and stretching contracts: 1

For the third consecutive year, navigating the `second apron` proved to be the overarching trend of the offseason. Respondents highlighted teams either strategically moving below the threshold if not contending (e.g., Boston Celtics, Phoenix Suns) or devising ways to operate within its constraints (e.g., Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks). Nearly an equal number of voices, however, emphasized a renewed league-wide focus on acquiring size, a notable shift after a decade dominated by `small ball` concepts. An Eastern Conference scout declared, “Size is now paramount,” further noting the increased importance of offensive rebounding. Additionally, following the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers` runs to the NBA Finals propelled by youth and depth, many observed a trend of teams prioritizing younger talent and roster depth over seasoned veterans.

Who will win each conference and the NBA title?

East

• Cleveland Cavaliers: 9
• New York Knicks: 7
• Atlanta Hawks: 2
• Milwaukee Bucks: 1
• Orlando Magic: 1

West

• Oklahoma City Thunder: 18
• Denver Nuggets: 2

NBA title

• Oklahoma City Thunder: 18
• Denver Nuggets: 2

Unsurprisingly, the Oklahoma City Thunder, fresh off their NBA championship victory and boasting a roster with only two players over 27, are the overwhelming favorites for the title. While the Denver Nuggets received a few votes, largely due to Nikola Jokic`s prowess and their strengthened bench, the complete absence of Eastern Conference teams in the title predictions starkly highlights the perceived disparity between the two conferences. Despite no Eastern team being favored for the championship, respondents found it challenging to confidently select a conference winner. Some noted the even match-up between the Knicks and Cavaliers. New York was favored by some for its resilience and roster depth, while Cleveland was chosen by others for its superior top-tier talent and defensive adaptability, spearheaded by reigning DPOY Evan Mobley. However, the perceived weaknesses of these frontrunners led several experts to opt for the Hawks, Bucks, or Magic. An East executive commented on Orlando, “I believe they now have excellent chemistry, and I don`t share the same level of confidence in Cleveland and New York as others do.” A West assistant coach acknowledged the Hawks` potential: “They have many unknowns, but Trae Young is exceptional and has achieved significant playoff success, for which he often doesn`t receive enough credit.” For another West assistant, the decision was straightforward: “I`m simply backing Giannis Antetokounmpo against the rest of the East.”