NBA free agency 2025 – Ripple effects of the Myles Turner-Damian Lillard shocker

The Milwaukee Bucks sent shockwaves through the NBA world on Tuesday morning with the news, first reported by ESPN`s Shams Charania, that they had reached an agreement with former Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner on a four-year, $107 million contract.

Milwaukee was not a team expected to have salary cap flexibility. The franchise cleared the necessary financial room to sign Turner, arguably the top free agent available, by waiving future Hall of Famer Damian Lillard. Lillard had been an All-Star in his two seasons with the Bucks and was still owed more than $110 million over the final two years of his deal.

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers have lost their longest-tenured player just after the franchise reached its first NBA Finals in a quarter-century.

With Turner in their lineup, the Pacers had eliminated the Bucks from the playoffs in the first round in each of the past two seasons. Leading up to Game 7 of the NBA Finals, Indiana appeared set to enter the next season as a likely frontrunner in the Eastern Conference. However, Tyrese Haliburton`s torn Achilles injury and now Turner`s departure have significantly altered the Pacers` standing in a wide-open Eastern Conference race. This race is currently headed by the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks and has become much more dynamic following recent moves by the Atlanta Hawks and the Orlando Magic.

By adding Turner, the Bucks believe they have positioned themselves back in that competitive mix. This move represents another bold gamble to maximize superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo`s prime years. Let`s examine the consequences of Milwaukee`s surprising maneuver—a decision with significant ripple effects across the league—and how NBA insiders are reacting.


What does this mean for the Bucks?

With Antetokounmpo on the roster, the Bucks are under constant pressure to contend for championships. After exiting the playoffs in the first round for three consecutive seasons, including a dominant five-game series loss to the Pacers this spring, that pressure only intensified.

During that series, Lillard suffered an Achilles tear, leaving Milwaukee with a massive $54 million salary cap hit for the current season and limited draft assets for improvements. Antetokounmpo has publicly stated his desire to win multiple titles, and Charania reported earlier this summer that Antetokounmpo planned to evaluate the team`s offseason moves while considering if Milwaukee remained his best path to contention.

So, rather than simply retaining most of their players (outside of center Brook Lopez, who signed with the LA Clippers), the Bucks executed the most surprising move of the offseason, landing a player seen as a younger version of Lopez.

However, Tuesday morning`s move was shocking on several levels—both for the player acquired (Turner) and the method used (waiving Lillard and stretching his remaining $112 million contract). Spreading such a substantial amount over multiple years to create the salary cap space needed to sign Turner was not viewed positively by rival executives.

“Reckless,” commented one executive.

Another executive stated, “That`s a decision you talk yourself into in the boardroom in July when you have nowhere else to turn, making a bad situation even worse. They`re going to look back in two years and ask, `What were we thinking?`”

Turner played a crucial role in Indiana`s run to the Finals, providing the valuable combination of rim protection and 3-point shooting from a 7-footer. Brook Lopez had offered Milwaukee similar qualities for several years, which made him such an effective partner alongside Antetokounmpo in the Bucks` frontcourt.

Turner is eight years younger than Lopez, but their statistical production last season was remarkably similar. Despite this, Turner will now earn three times Lopez`s salary. This doesn`t even account for the more than $22 million in annual roster charges Milwaukee will incur for the next five seasons as a result of the decision to waive and stretch Lillard`s contract.

Once a team stretches a player`s salary, the decision is irreversible. The Bucks cannot trade this salary cap hit or reduce it; it remains on their books until it expires. Essentially, the Bucks are paying over $50 million per year, in part, for the right to roster Turner. They also still need to find a way to replace Lillard`s production—24.9 points, 7.1 assists, and 4.7 rebounds per game, shooting 38% from beyond the arc—for a team that finished fifth in the Eastern Conference last season.


What does this mean for the Pacers?

Indiana had reportedly indicated throughout its playoff run that it intended to re-sign Turner, who had spent his entire 10-season career with the team and had become a foundational figure in their locker room.

However, doing so would have meant entering the luxury tax for the first time in 20 years. Whenever Indiana signaled a willingness to pay the tax, rival teams questioned whether this was genuine or simply a tactic to suppress the market for Turner, who was the top unrestricted free agent center available in a year with very little salary cap space around the league.

But no one anticipated the Bucks creating cap space to sign Turner. Once they did, they were able to outbid Indiana. Minnesota`s signing of center Naz Reid to a five-year, $125 million contract the previous week had already complicated negotiations with the Pacers; Turner, as a starter on a Finals team, reasonably believed he was worth more than Reid`s $25 million annual value as a backup big man for Minnesota.

Although Turner is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, he struggled during the later rounds of the playoffs and especially in the Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder, averaging 10.6 points on poor shooting percentages (37.7% from the field, 21.4% from 3-point range). Nevertheless, his combination of skills is rare among big men in the NBA, and it`s a profile the Pacers currently lack on their roster.

As one rival assistant coach remarked incredulously on Tuesday afternoon, “Why didn`t they pay him?”

While Indiana`s immediate future has taken a significant hit due to Haliburton`s injury and Turner`s departure, this situation could potentially benefit the franchise in the long term. With Haliburton likely sidelined for the upcoming season and the Pacers controlling their own first-round draft pick in 2026, they stand to gain a higher draft selection if they take a step back until Haliburton is ready to return.

So, where do the Pacers go from here? They extended a qualifying offer to Isaiah Jackson, a bouncy center who tore an Achilles in November, making him a restricted free agent. He will likely be part of their center rotation next season. Options for replacing Turner from the remaining pool of free agents are now limited, as several prominent names signed early. The most notable remaining is former No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton, who was recently bought out of the final year of his contract by the Portland Trail Blazers—a contract Indiana had actually signed him to back in the 2022 offseason before the Phoenix Suns matched the offer sheet to retain Ayton.


How does this impact Antetokounmpo`s future?

Teams have been speculating whether Antetokounmpo might request a trade from Milwaukee since 2020. That year, Bucks General Manager Jon Horst made his first major trade for an impact player—acquiring Jrue Holiday from the New Orleans Pelicans—in an effort to convince Antetokounmpo to stay, a move that helped propel the Bucks to the NBA title the following season. Three years later, Horst utilized Holiday as a key piece in the package to acquire Lillard from Portland.

Now, it appears Horst has managed a similar feat for a third time by securing Turner. Turner is expected to continue providing the necessary floor spacing and rim protection alongside Antetokounmpo that is crucial for maximizing his unique talents. Antetokounmpo is currently under contract for $54.1 million this coming season and $58.4 million in 2026-27, with a $62.7 million player option for the 2027-28 season.

After Antetokounmpo finished the regular season strongly, effectively playing as the team`s primary ball-handler while Lillard was dealing with a blood clot in his calf that sidelined him for the final month, it seems clear Antetokounmpo will take on a similar role again next season. This has appealed to Antetokounmpo in the past, especially as he compares himself to other great players who can be the central hub of an offense.

“I always felt like that would be my last phase,” Antetokounmpo commented in April after the Bucks` playoff elimination. “As a guy that can playmake and can set up a team, be like a legit point forward out there.”

Over the final few weeks of the season without Lillard, Antetokounmpo averaged an astonishing 33.4 points, 15.6 rebounds, and 6.6 assists while shooting 60% from the field. He could potentially replicate these numbers next season given how frequently he will handle the ball. This could put Antetokounmpo in contention for a third Most Valuable Player Award, provided he can lead Milwaukee to sufficient wins and remain healthy under what will likely be a heavy workload, even by his standards. Sources told Charania that both Antetokounmpo and Turner are reportedly excited about the prospect of playing together.


What about Lillard?

This marks a rather quiet and understated conclusion to Lillard`s two-season tenure in Milwaukee and his partnership with Antetokounmpo. The star duo, expected to achieve great things after teaming up in the summer of 2023, never fully realized their projected potential. The Bucks held a 73-43 regular season record when both Antetokounmpo and Lillard were on the court together, but they only played three playoff games side-by-side before Lillard tore his Achilles in the last one.

However, while it may not feel like a fitting end to Lillard`s time in Milwaukee, this outcome arguably provides the best possible scenario for his future career. While the current expectation, sources indicate, is that Lillard will not sign with any team for the 2025-26 season, he is now guaranteed to receive all the money owed on his contract. He also gains the unique opportunity to spend the next 12 to 18 months rehabilitating his injury and then, for the first time in his career, choose his next destination as an unrestricted free agent.

Although Lillard is currently a free agent, there are few compelling reasons for any team to rush to sign him now, or for him to seek a deal immediately. Any team could sign him now, but they would only have his non-Bird rights, which would severely limit the amount of a raise they could offer him without needing significant salary cap space or a cap exception next summer. Furthermore, unlike in some other sports where teams have more flexibility in structuring contracts, the NBA`s collective bargaining agreement significantly restricts year-over-year raises in multiyear deals. This prevents a team from signing Lillard for a minimum salary this season and then providing a much larger payment in the 2026-27 season once he is healthy.


How does the Turner signing impact other teams around the league?

Let`s briefly revisit a trade that received relatively little attention during the NBA Finals: the Pacers sending the 23rd pick in the recent draft to the Pelicans in exchange for Indiana`s own 2026 first-round pick. New Orleans had originally acquired this pick from the Toronto Raptors as part of the trade for Brandon Ingram a few months earlier.

It was noteworthy, though not entirely unprecedented, for Indiana to execute a trade while competing in the Finals. However, it was also curious why the Pelicans would trade a pick with the potential to improve in 2026 for a selection in the 20s of the current draft.

Crucially, that deal happened *before* Haliburton`s Achilles tear in Game 7 of the NBA Finals—an injury that made it seem highly probable the Pacers would finish outside of the NBA`s top tier next season.

In retrospect, that trade looks significantly worse for New Orleans. The Pelicans subsequently made what many observers considered a highly questionable move using the 23rd pick they acquired, attaching an unprotected pick (the better of New Orleans` and Milwaukee`s selections in 2026) to the Atlanta Hawks to move up to 13th overall and draft big man Derik Queen. With Haliburton injured and Turner now gone, Indiana`s own 2026 pick has become considerably more valuable.

Had the Pelicans not made that initial trade, they might now possess not only their own 2026 pick (projected to be at least a mid-lottery selection) but also a potential second lottery pick from Indiana. The Pacers` pick was top-four protected and was very likely to convey outside the top four.

(Apologies, Pelicans fans. We understand it`s been a tough week.)

Callum Drayton
Callum Drayton

Meet Callum Drayton, a passionate journalist living in an English city, dedicated to uncovering the latest in sports news. From football pitches to boxing rings, Callum’s knack for storytelling brings every game to life.

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