Just a few days into the official free agency period, following closely on the heels of the NBA draft, the league is already buzzing with its typical summer frenzy. We`ve seen unexpected nine-figure contracts, intriguing roster swaps via trade, a record-breaking deal, and ongoing drama surrounding multi-season MVP players.
To help make sense of this wave of activity, let`s break down the key winners and losers of the offseason as it stands. It`s worth remembering that designations can shift as the summer progresses, as history shows with major moves involving players like Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, and Karl-Anthony Towns occurring later in the year.
For now, here`s an analysis of the teams, trends, and transactions that have made the biggest impact, starting with the most clear-cut winner of the 2025 offseason.
Winner: Houston Rockets
Regardless of any subsequent moves, the Houston Rockets would have already been counted among the offseason`s winners based purely on the Kevin Durant trade. Houston`s acquisition of Durant was a profound win, addressing their primary weakness with an ideal solution without sacrificing any of their core young talent or valuable draft capital in the process.
However, the Rockets didn`t stop there. They further solidified their roster by signing Dorian Finney-Smith to a four-year, $53 million contract, adding Clint Capela on a three-year, $21.5 million deal, renegotiating Fred VanVleet`s contract to a more manageable structure, securing Jabari Smith Jr. with a reasonable extension, and re-signing Jae`Sean Tate, Aaron Holiday, and Jeff Green to round out the team.
The cumulative effect of these moves is a deep and adaptable roster capable of challenging opponents in numerous ways: through defense, rebounding, size, physicality, a mix of youth and experience, and Durant`s unparalleled scoring ability. Houston is now poised to contend with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the title of the league`s deepest team.
More significantly, the Rockets are now a major challenger to the Thunder`s aspirations for a repeat championship, positioning themselves as the second-best team in the Western Conference.
While the roster isn`t flawless – they may be heavily reliant on Fred VanVleet, who is now in his 30s and potentially past his prime, due to a lack of backcourt depth (a significant leap from Reed Sheppard in his second year would be crucial) – and the frontcourt rotation could become congested with Capela joining Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams, potentially leading to overuse of effective-in-small-doses two-center lineups, these are minor points.
Overall, this is a stacked roster. Houston expertly managed their salary cap, replaced Dillon Brooks with the defensively capable Finney-Smith (Amen Thompson and Tari Eason mitigate the slight defensive drop-off), and upgraded from the inefficient Jalen Green to Kevin Durant, one of the most efficient perimeter scorers in NBA history. This is the blueprint for winning the offseason.
Loser: Los Angeles Lakers
From the moment the Lakers landed Luka Doncic in a surprising blockbuster trade, their most pressing need became a reliable center. The trade saw them lose their starting center, Anthony Davis, and Doncic`s game thrives alongside a dynamic pick-and-roll partner, as demonstrated by Daniel Gafford`s success in Dallas and Dereck Lively II`s rookie impact.
It was therefore logical that the Lakers quickly reached an agreement in principle to trade for a young, athletic center shortly after acquiring Doncic. However, when they nullified the Mark Williams deal due to a failed physical, the team was left with their existing center options. Jaxson Hayes started several playoff games but clearly didn`t earn coach JJ Redick`s full confidence, playing minimal minutes before Redick opted for a small-ball approach late in their playoff run.
Despite this clear priority following a disappointing playoff exit, the Lakers saw their top potential center targets sign elsewhere within the first few days of free agency. They were ultimately left with Deandre Ayton, who unexpectedly became available via a buyout with the Portland Trail Blazers.
Ayton doesn`t fit the profile of an ideal short-term solution for a championship contender, nor does he project as a strong long-term partner for Doncic. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick (selected two spots ahead of Doncic) isn`t primarily a rim runner or a floor spacer, and his performance peaked several years ago. Despite often impressive traditional stats, leading public advanced metrics consistently rate Ayton as a below-average player.
Furthermore, Ayton`s two-year contract, which includes a player option, offers minimal upside for the team. If he performs well in the first year, he`s likely to opt out, while if he doesn`t earn Redick`s trust, the team will be committed to his salary for a second season.
This situation is particularly precarious for the Lakers, who are trying to manage LeBron James` satisfaction and secure a long-term extension from Luka Doncic later this summer. As of now, the roster doesn`t appear particularly compelling to Doncic. The team has an imbalanced structure, with many power forwards (Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, Jarred Vanderbilt, and James) but no reliable centers, and their only other notable move besides the Ayton signing was replacing Dorian Finney-Smith with Jake LaRavia.
Winner: Big-Man Depth
One significant factor contributing to the Lakers` struggles in finding a center is the speed at which other teams snapped up available big men. A clear theme of the offseason`s first week has been teams doubling down on their center positions, even when their existing depth seemed adequate.
Examples abound: The Rockets signed Clint Capela despite having Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams. The San Antonio Spurs added Luke Kornet alongside Victor Wembanyama. The Denver Nuggets acquired Jonas Valanciunas to provide the best backup Nikola Jokic has had in years. The LA Clippers signed Brook Lopez to back up Ivica Zubac. The New York Knicks signed Guerschon Yabusele to play with Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. The New Orleans Pelicans signed Kevon Looney to split time with young prospect Yves Missi. The Toronto Raptors extended Jakob Poeltl and signed Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Milwaukee Bucks signed Myles Turner and Jericho Sims, in addition to extending Bobby Portis.
The preference for lineups featuring multiple big men also influenced the draft, with two non-playoff Western teams establishing long-term frontcourt pairings. The Portland Trail Blazers selected 7-foot-1 Yang Hansen to potentially team with 7-foot-2 sophomore Donovan Clingan, while the Phoenix Suns quickly traded for veteran Mark Williams and drafted Khaman Maluach, the first center chosen.
Other contending teams invested significantly to maintain their established big-man rotations. The Minnesota Timberwolves re-signed Naz Reid and Julius Randle for a combined $225 million, bringing their total commitment to bigs (including Rudy Gobert`s extension) to $334.5 million, even after trading Towns. Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies retained Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama for a combined $292.5 million.
Furthermore, after the Oklahoma City Thunder started Isaiah Hartenstein (a free agent signing last summer) and Chet Holmgren together en route to a title, they extended third big Jaylin Williams this week. And the Dallas Mavericks have embraced size since trading for Anthony Davis; until Kyrie Irving returns from injury, their top five players are all natural power forwards or centers: Davis, newly extended Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, P.J. Washington, and No. 1 draft pick Cooper Flagg.
This league-wide emphasis on big men could lead to fascinating stylistic clashes with the few teams not following suit, such as the Lakers and Golden State Warriors. However, the overall trend is clear: after a decade of experimenting with small-ball, having size in the frontcourt is emphatically back in vogue, applying not just to MVP-caliber players like Jokic and Joel Embiid, but to players of all skill levels, provided they have the requisite physical size.
Loser: Opponents Trying to Score Inside Against the Spurs
Here`s a revealing statistic highlighting the defensive impact of one of the newly formed big-man duos. According to GeniusIQ tracking over the last two seasons, among 166 players who have defended at least 300 shots within 5 feet, Luke Kornet ranks fifth (52.2%) and Victor Wembanyama ranks sixth (52.3%) in lowest opponent field goal percentage allowed.
I previously highlighted Kornet as an underrated free agent target, and the Spurs recognized his value, signing the veteran center to a four-year, $41 million deal. He projects as an excellent backup for Wembanyama, but their potential to play together shouldn`t be underestimated. A Wembanyama-Kornet frontcourt wouldn`t necessarily crowd the offense, as Wembanyama often operates from the perimeter, and they could form a truly devastating defensive partnership.
Winner: Denver Nuggets
For several years, the Denver Nuggets` starting five has been one of the league`s elite units. Last season continued this trend, even with Christian Braun stepping into the lineup for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Their starters boasted a net rating of plus-10.6 in the regular season and an even better plus-11.3 in the playoffs, maintaining a plus-10.3 per 100 possessions even against the formidable Thunder in the second round.
However, this success didn`t prevent the first significant alteration to Denver`s long-standing core, which had been together since before their 2022-23 championship run. The Nuggets traded Michael Porter Jr. and an unprotected 2032 first-round pick for Cam Johnson, a player considered an ideal fit for Denver`s offensive scheme. Johnson is a high-volume, knockdown 3-point shooter (39% career), and while he lacks Porter`s size, he offers more dynamic off-the-dribble capabilities.
Crucially, the salary savings generated by this trade – Porter is set to earn approximately $17 million more than Johnson next season – provided the Nuggets with the necessary financial flexibility to make further additions.
First, they re-signed Bruce Brown Jr., another player I identified as underrated and who has a proven history of thriving alongside Nikola Jokic. Then, they traded Dario Saric, who saw limited action (16 games, none in the playoffs) after signing last summer, for Jonas Valanciunas, a highly qualified backup center who averaged a robust 20 points and 15 rebounds per 36 minutes last season, consistent with his peak performance.
With Valanciunas, the Nuggets should no longer experience significant defensive drop-offs or offensive struggles when Jokic is off the court, a problem they faced with past backups like Zeke Nnaji and a veteran DeAndre Jordan.
Finally, the Nuggets signed Tim Hardaway Jr., a capable and willing shooter (36% career from three) who, along with Cam Johnson, is expected to help boost the Nuggets` 3-point attempt rate, which ranked 30th last season.
In essence, the Nuggets lost two players from last season`s playoff rotation (Porter and Russell Westbrook) but added four players capable of contributing significantly to the rotation. Denver can now comfortably field a nine or ten-deep lineup, with a projected starting five potentially including Brown and Hardaway, strong backups like Valanciunas and Peyton Watson, and the possibility of a leap from another young player such as Julian Strawther.
The Nuggets came closer than any other Western Conference team to dethroning the Thunder this past spring, and their roster for the 2025-26 season appears significantly stronger than their 2024-25 version.
Loser: Milwaukee Bucks
To be fair to the Milwaukee Bucks, this categorization reflects less on their recent specific offseason moves and more on a series of setbacks over the past two years. This challenging period began with the hiring of short-tenured coach Adrian Griffin and the acquisition of Damian Lillard, culminating this week in the waiving of Lillard and stretching the remaining $113 million of his contract.
The Bucks faced a no-win scenario after Lillard suffered an Achilles injury in April. Beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo, they possess limited assets: no promising young players, little control over future draft picks, and minimal financial flexibility to improve the roster around their two-time MVP. They did manage to create some short-term cap space by stretching Lillard`s contract and trading Pat Connaughton, which enabled them to acquire center Myles Turner from the Indiana Pacers – but this came at an extreme long-term cost.
Lillard`s stretched contract means he will now account for a substantial $22.5 million against the Bucks` salary cap for each of the next five seasons. For context, this amount is roughly what Cam Johnson will earn annually in his upcoming contract years. (It`s also comparable to what Kyle Kuzma will earn, suggesting the Bucks effectively have two significant salary cap holes of that magnitude.)
This long-term financial burden might be justifiable if the Bucks were clear contenders for the 2025-26 championship. However, even with some fringe contenders in the Eastern Conference showing promise, and despite Turner providing a younger alternative to Brook Lopez alongside Antetokounmpo, it`s difficult to realistically envision a team starting Kevin Porter Jr. at point guard and having a porous perimeter defense truly competing for a title.
The Milwaukee front office deserves credit for its bold, win-now approach aimed at maximizing Antetokounmpo`s prime, a strategy that dates back to the trade for Jrue Holiday that ultimately led to a championship. But boldness alone isn`t enough to secure playoff victories; only high-quality NBA players can do that. And even after this week`s dramatic moves, the Bucks simply do not appear to have enough talent on the roster.
Winner: Atlanta Hawks
Teams built around smaller point guards often face challenges advancing deep into the playoffs, as the offensive engine can become a defensive target. The most effective counter-strategy, exemplified by the Indiana Pacers` Finals run, is to surround the point guard (like Tyrese Haliburton) with high-caliber defenders at every other position.
The Atlanta Hawks are actively attempting to replicate this model, dedicating the past two summers to building a formidable defensive-oriented roster around their star point guard, Trae Young. This offseason, they made an opportunistic trade for Kristaps Porzingis, a player who carries injury risk but undoubtedly raises the team`s ceiling. Porzingis became available as the Boston Celtics sought to shed salaries, and the Hawks simultaneously offloaded Terance Mann`s unfavorable contract (which they should not have acquired in the first place) at the cost of a late first-round pick. Atlanta also emerged victorious in the Nickeil Alexander-Walker sweepstakes and replaced Caris LeVert with Luke Kennard, the active NBA leader in career 3-point percentage (43.8%).
Atlanta`s current rotation now features Trae Young alongside Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Dyson Daniels; long, athletic wings in Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, and 2024 first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher; and capable defensive centers in Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu. The Hawks have not finished a season with a defensive ranking better than 18th during Young`s career, but provided they limit minutes with a Young-Kennard backcourt, they have a legitimate chance to be an above-average defensive team this season.
However, none of these transactions represent Atlanta`s single best move of the offseason. That distinction belongs to the absolute heist the Hawks pulled on draft night, when they convinced the New Orleans Pelicans to pay an exorbitant price to move up just 10 spots, from pick No. 23 to 13. The Pelicans agreed to the trade, and now the Hawks own the unprotected rights to the best pick between the Pelicans and Bucks in next summer`s draft.
Considering the Bucks` continued uncertainty and the Pelicans` relatively weak standing in a competitive Western Conference, that future pick is strongly favored to land in the lottery. For context, according to my draft value chart, the difference in value between the 13th and 23rd pick is roughly equivalent to the 28th pick overall, meaning the Hawks are virtually guaranteed to win this trade significantly.
Moving beyond their recent history of play-in tournament appearances, the Hawks, with these roster upgrades and operating in a relatively wide-open Eastern Conference, could realistically contend for a top-four seed next season. The only minor negative mark against the Hawks` otherwise stellar summer is the loss of Larry Nance Jr., who was a sneakily effective bench addition for Cleveland.
Loser: New Orleans Pelicans
If the Atlanta Hawks are major winners primarily due to their draft-day maneuvering, the team they outmaneuvered must consequently appear on the losers` list. The Pelicans` decision to trade up was simply baffling, particularly coming from a new front office led by Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver, which seemed to fundamentally misunderstand the team`s current situation and roster composition.
The Pelicans finished 14th in the Western Conference last season. While they are highly likely to improve upon a 21-61 record with better health in 2025-26, it`s difficult to identify many teams they will realistically surpass in the standings. Even if the Suns decline, the teams that finished 13th (Spurs), 12th (Trail Blazers), and 10th (Mavericks) all appear to have improved this summer. New Orleans would need to jump all three of these teams (or two of them plus another higher-ranked team) just to reach the fringe of the play-in tournament.
If the Pelicans fail to reach the playoffs, they will convey a lottery pick to the Hawks. They took this risk to draft Derik Queen, a prospect with potential but one who doesn`t seem like a superb fit next to incumbent star Zion Williamson. Both players are somewhat positionless bigs who share similar strengths and weaknesses. Serious questions remain: Can lineups featuring Williamson and Queen provide adequate floor spacing? Can they consistently stop opposing offenses?
I might not dwell on the Pelicans` draft-night mistake, regardless of how questionable it seems, if it were their only misstep this offseason. However, the new front office`s other moves also lack a coherent strategy.
New Orleans also traded CJ McCollum and Kelly Olynyk for Jordan Poole and Saddiq Bey (and swapped second-round picks with Washington). Bey could potentially help the team after missing all of last season with an ACL tear, but the core of this trade was New Orleans choosing Poole over McCollum. While Poole is eight years younger, advanced metrics generally rate the two players as comparable, and Poole is signed for an additional year at a costly $34 million.
Adding to the concerns, the Pelicans` primary free agent signing was Kevon Looney, who is a significant question mark playing outside of Golden State`s unique system for the first time. It`s particularly challenging to envision how this Pelicans offense will generate proper spacing when multiple non-shooters share the court; Looney, Williamson, Queen, and starting center Yves Missi have collectively made a mere 51 three-pointers across 922 career games (combining college stats for Queen and NBA stats for the others).
