Hosting Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC) marks the first time Indianapolis has seen a Finals game in 25 years. This deep playoff run by the Indiana Pacers feels significantly ahead of expectations – indeed, it might not have been widely anticipated at all.
Despite reaching the Eastern Conference finals just last spring, Indiana was viewed as a significant underdog even to return to the conference finals as the 4th seed, let alone proceed further. The Pacers needed to overcome a formidable 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers squad in the second round, then secure another series victory against the 3rd-seeded New York Knicks without enjoying home-court advantage.
According to data compiled from SportsOddsHistory.com by ESPN Research, only two previous Finals participants over the past four decades commenced the season with poorer championship odds than Indiana’s plus-5,000 (50-1) at ESPN BET Sportsbook. These were the 2020 Miami Heat (plus-7,500) and the 2002 New Jersey Nets (plus-6,000), with the 2022 Boston Celtics also listed at plus-5,000.
Looking at the history of other unexpected finalists suggests that their success typically doesn`t culminate in winning the championship. However, through their remarkable playoff performances and numerous comeback victories along the way, the Pacers have already etched their name in history by achieving the improbable.
Let`s examine how Indiana stacks up against other surprise Finals teams from history, what this implies about the current Pacers roster, and whether this outcome was something we perhaps should have foreseen.
Surprise Conference Finalists Haven`t Often Returned
The skepticism surrounding Indiana at the start of this season may have stemmed from the fate of recent teams similar to the Pacers, who emerged seemingly out of nowhere to reach the conference finals. Last year`s run as the No. 6 seed was notably aided by injuries suffered by opponents, including Giannis Antetokounmpo and multiple Knicks players.
Since the first round expanded to a best-of-seven format in 2003, five teams have reached the conference finals after having pre-playoff title odds of plus-5,000 or greater, according to SportsOddsHistory.com. Remarkably, all five of these instances have occurred since 2018, highlighting a trend of increasing playoff upsets in the NBA.
Out of these five teams, Indiana is the first to make a return trip to the conference finals, let alone advance further into the NBA Finals.
| Team | Season | Title Odds | Playoff Seed | Following Year Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 2023 | 12500 | 8 | Eliminated in First Round |
| Boston Celtics | 2018 | 10000 | 2 | Lost Conference Semifinals |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 2019 | 10000 | 3 | Eliminated in First Round |
| Indiana Pacers | 2024 | 10000 | 6 | Reached NBA Finals |
| Atlanta Hawks | 2021 | 6600 | 5 | Eliminated in First Round |
Three of the five clubs were subsequently defeated in the first round the following season. Before the Pacers, only the Celtics managed to return to the conference finals at any point after their improbable run, doing so in 2020 before reaching the NBA Finals in 2022 with significant roster turnover from 2018 and a new coaching staff.
Similar to Indiana, the 2018-19 Portland Trail Blazers and 2020-21 Atlanta Hawks had hoped that reaching the conference finals, facilitated by upsets and a favorable playoff path, would signal the beginning of a sustained period of success. Instead, it proved to be the peak of their respective runs; neither team has won a playoff series since.
Given the youth of Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton (25) and the core of their supporting players, such an outcome seemed less likely for Indiana. However, a similar sentiment could have been applied to Trae Young and Atlanta four years ago. It was certainly not guaranteed that the Pacers` playoff success from 2024 would be repeatable this spring.
The Major Upset Over the Cavaliers
Indiana benefited from the top-seeded Boston Celtics being eliminated from the opposite side of the Eastern Conference bracket, a year after the Celtics had swept the Pacers en route to their own title last postseason. Nevertheless, to capitalize on this opportunity, the Pacers first had to pull off a stunning upset themselves.
Several factors contributed to the impact of the Pacers eliminating Cleveland being somewhat downplayed. Cleveland`s 64 regular-season wins were tied for the third-most by a team failing to reach the conference finals. Simultaneously, the New York Knicks defeated a 61-win Boston team, while in the Western Conference, the 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder faced multiple deficits in a tense seven-game series against the Denver Nuggets. These other compelling series drew away attention.
Furthermore, Indiana might have been a casualty of its own efficiency. The victory over the Cavaliers unfolded almost too rapidly. Following one of their characteristic comeback wins in Game 2, achieved with Cleveland All-Stars Darius Garland and Evan Mobley sidelined, the Pacers suffered a significant 22-point loss in Game 3 at home. Yet, they responded decisively with a 20-point win and removed any lingering doubt from the series by clinching it on the road in just five games.
Even so, based on the pre-series odds, Indiana`s victory was among the 10 most unlikely series winners since 2000. Among the upsets that occurred in the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Pacers joined the 2023 Heat as the only teams in that timeframe to parlay such a result into a trip to the NBA Finals.
Where Do the Pacers Rank Among History`s Most Surprising Finalists?
That reliance on SportsOddsHistory.com`s preseason data excludes some other notable preseason long shots. The 1977-78 Seattle SuperSonics, who were coming off a 40-42 season that led to coach Bill Russell losing his job, presumably would have had even longer odds to win the title compared to this season`s Pacers. The same likely applies to the 1976-77 Trail Blazers, who had finished 37-45 the previous season, with Bill Walton limited to just 51 games due to injuries.
However, all those teams had solidified their status as stronger Finals contenders by the commencement of the playoffs. The 1977 Blazers, 2002 Nets, and 2022 Celtics were all top-two seeds. The 1978 Sonics and 2020 Heat benefited from playoff fields that felt wide open due to uncertainties surrounding Walton`s health and the unique circumstances of the Orlando bubble, respectively.
If we instead consider the championship odds at the start of the postseason, the Pacers (plus-6,600 at ESPN BET) again find themselves in exclusive company. SportsOddsHistory.com`s records date back to 1973, and once more, only two finalists were considered bigger long shots: the 2023 Heat (plus-12,500 coming out of the play-in tournament as the No. 8 seed) and the 1981 Houston Rockets (plus-10,000).
The 1981 Rockets arguably stand alone as the single most surprising Finals team since the ABA-NBA merger. Although we lack preseason title odds, Houston was coming off a 41-41 season and finished with a worse record in 1980-81 (40-42). Yet, they eliminated the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers in the first round and defeated a 52-win San Antonio Spurs team in the conference semifinals before facing a sub-.500 opponent in the Kansas City Kings for the conference finals.
Like most of these unexpected teams, the Rockets` Cinderella run concluded with a loss in the Finals. Should Indiana somehow go on to win the Finals, they would become the least likely champion by a significant margin based on pre-playoff odds. Currently, that distinction is shared by the 1995 Rockets, who were defending champions but seeded sixth in a highly competitive Western Conference, and the 2011 Dallas Mavericks – both listed at plus-1,800 entering the postseason.
Based on the probabilities implied by these odds, those teams were considered more than three times as likely to win the championship as the Pacers.
Should We Have Seen This Coming?
This was not a situation where advanced statistics secretly predicted a Pacers Finals run. By winning 49 games, Indiana actually exceeded the expectations set by their plus-2.1 net rating, which ranked 13th in the NBA – just behind their first-round opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks, and surprisingly, the Detroit Pistons.
Looking more closely, there were underlying factors suggesting reasons to believe in Indiana`s potential. The Pacers experienced two distinct stretches during the season: they started 9-14, but then finished 41-18, playing at a pace equivalent to a 57-win team over a full season. In part, this turnaround reflected Tyrese Haliburton`s return to peak form after a slower start, but it was also significantly influenced by improved health across the roster.
Indiana faced difficulties early in the campaign with starters Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith sidelined by injuries, resulting in a 5-9 record over the 14 games both players missed in November and December. Adjusting the analysis to include only lineups featuring players in teams` projected full-strength rotations, Dan Feldman`s pre-playoff analysis in the Dunc`d On Basketball NBA newsletter ranked the Pacers second in the East – ahead of the Celtics.
Simultaneously, by this same metric, Indiana was still slightly behind Cleveland and did not possess the advantage of home court against them. It is also worth noting that the Pacers were not highlighted by Feldman as a specific playoff sleeper based on full-strength performance; he pointed to the LA Clippers, who had the highest projected rating of any team, before they were eliminated by Denver in the opening round.
Everything appears obvious in hindsight, making it tempting to search for clear explanations when a team defies expectations as significantly as the Pacers have. The reality is that any analysis or model that might have accurately predicted Indiana`s incredible ascent this spring would likely have also led to incorrect predictions about other teams. It is perhaps more rewarding to simply celebrate the Pacers` remarkable run precisely because it was so unexpected and improbable.
