NBA Finals 2025: What to know ahead of Pacers-Thunder championship matchup

On Christmas night, the Oklahoma City Thunder found themselves in Indianapolis, experiencing a mix of emotions. While they appreciated spending Christmas morning with their loved ones before flying for a brief road trip, the team harbored quiet frustration. They felt overlooked, noticing that ten other NBA teams were featured in five high-profile games on the league`s premier holiday, while they remained observers.

Despite finishing with a league-best 57 wins the previous season and having Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who was the MVP runner-up and arguably deserved a spot on the marquee day, the Thunder were absent from the Christmas schedule. Their impressive 23-5 start to the current season and an active eight-game winning streak only amplified the oddity of their exclusion.

Their hosts on December 26th, in a game not broadcast nationally, were the Indiana Pacers. Four months prior, the Pacers had also expressed disappointment about not being included in the Christmas Day lineup, especially after reaching the Eastern Conference Finals the previous season. This marked their 20th consecutive year without a Christmas Day game.

In hindsight, this encounter was quite ironic. The two teams ultimately destined for the NBA Finals were together on the league`s most celebrated date, yet both were navigating the challenges typical of smaller-market underdogs.

That particular game turned out to be a thrilling preview, a matchup many would now eagerly anticipate seeing replicated in the NBA Finals.

The Pacers, who were still overcoming early-season injuries and inconsistency, were a .500 team at the time. However, they led for most of the Dec. 26 contest, at one point by as much as 16 points, even with star guard Tyrese Haliburton limited to just four points.

Nevertheless, the Thunder, showcasing their precise and relentless style, committed only three turnovers, effectively countering Indiana`s game plan of exploiting opponent errors. Gilgeous-Alexander matched his career high with 45 points, contributing 16 in the fourth quarter, including a clutch three-pointer over Bennedict Mathurin in the final minute. OKC ultimately prevailed with a 120-114 victory.

This contest would have been a spectacular showcase had it received the national spotlight. Instead, it remains an intriguing footnote, highlighted by the fact that the Pacers and Thunder are the first teams since 2007 to reach the NBA Finals without having played on Christmas Day in the same season.

The league had its justifications, pointing to successful games and strong television ratings for the 2024 Christmas schedule. While that was a triumph in its own right, the omission of these two teams might still be seen as a missed opportunity. They consistently proved themselves to be among the league`s best teams throughout the season, validating their status with remarkably similar and dominant playoff performances over the past six weeks.

Both teams boast brilliant point guards, exceptional depth, suffocating defenses, potent transition offenses, sharp strategic coaching, evolving star power, dramatic finishes, undeniable resilience, and overall dominance.

Dismiss them as small-market teams, predict low ratings, or criticize their cities` attractions, travel logistics, or even the fervor of their championship-hungry fanbases if you wish.

Underestimating the Thunder and Pacers has consistently resulted in being on the wrong side of the outcome.

The season`s most compelling matchup was present all along, perhaps just hiding in plain sight on Christmas Day.

Our NBA insiders are preparing for the NBA Finals, with Game 1 scheduled to tip off Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Their analysis includes breakdowns of each team`s journey to the finals, the most important individual and team matchups, and keys to winning the championship.

Road to the Finals

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder

Following one of the most dominant regular seasons in NBA history, where they secured 68 wins, the Thunder passed a significant test against an experienced championship team in the second round of the playoffs. Otherwise, their path through the Western Conference bracket was relatively smooth.

After sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, Oklahoma City surrendered a double-digit lead in the series opener against three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets and found themselves trailing 2-1 after three games. The Thunder viewed this adversity as an opportunity for growth.

“I knew that they were going to bring greatness out of us,” commented Thunder reserve Alex Caruso, the only player on the roster with a championship ring, the day before Game 4 in Denver.

“Denver is a smart team, an experienced team. I know that this is the challenge that`s going to push us to be great.”

Led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder secured crucial close victories in the subsequent two games, demonstrating their ability to execute in clutch moments after cruising to double-digit wins in 54 regular-season victories. Oklahoma City emphatically defeated the Nuggets in Game 7, with Gilgeous-Alexander delivering 35 points in a 32-point victory.

Oklahoma City needed only five games to eliminate the Minnesota Timberwolves in the West finals, concluding that series with a decisive 30-point win. This was the Thunder`s fourth victory by a margin of 30 points or more during this playoff run, the highest number by any team in a single postseason, according to ESPN Research.

As brilliant as Gilgeous-Alexander is offensively, averaging 29.8 points and 6.9 assists per game this postseason, the foundation of the Thunder`s dominance is their defense. Oklahoma City boasted the top-ranked defense during the regular season and elevated their defensive intensity even further in the postseason, reducing their defensive efficiency to 104.7 points allowed per 100 possessions. In the playoffs, the Thunder have forced 18.0 turnovers and converted them into 23.8 points per game, increases over their league-leading regular-season numbers (17.0 and 21.8, respectively).

Five Oklahoma City players—Caruso, Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Luguentz Dort—have averaged more than a steal per game in the playoffs, while Chet Holmgren has averaged 2.0 blocks per game. The Thunder`s defense is a remarkable blend of relentless pressure, intelligent help defense, elite defensive playmaking, and collective effort.

“Fifteen puppets on one string,” was the description provided by Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards for Oklahoma City`s defensive coordination.

(4) Indiana Pacers

At the beginning of the postseason, it might have been easy to overlook the Pacers, but after an exciting and successful run as underdogs through the Eastern Conference field, they command attention.

The Pacers finished the regular season with 50 wins as the No. 4 seed, but a slow start to the season initially concealed their true contender qualities. Their potential became evident not only when they dispatched their new rival, the Milwaukee Bucks, in five games in the first round, but especially when they made a 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers team look ordinary, signaling Indiana`s clear ascent from a promising young team to a conference elite.

“They`re up here, guys,” said Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson, raising his hand toward his head for emphasis, after his top-seeded team was eliminated from the conference semifinals.

“I know from the data, I know from watching film, they`re up here and they can sustain it. I give them so much credit for being able to sustain that type of intensity for so long.”

This set up a matchup in the Eastern Conference finals against Indiana`s historical rival, the New York Knicks, the same franchise the Pacers defeated in their only other trip to the Finals in 2000. Indiana`s high-powered offense overwhelmed the Knicks in six games, led by Tyrese Haliburton, who has had a breakout playoff performance, averaging 18.8 points, 9.8 assists, and 5.7 rebounds, along with hitting several significant clutch shots; Pascal Siakam, who was named conference finals MVP after three 30-point games in the series; and coach Rick Carlisle, a champion with the Dallas Mavericks in 2011, whom Haliburton has described as a “savant.”

The Pacers have posted the second-best offensive efficiency in the playoffs at 117.7 points per 100 possessions. They have considerable depth and play at a high pace for the entire 48 minutes, which has allowed them to pull off three of the most improbable comebacks in playoff history during this run. They trailed by seven points in the last 40 seconds of Game 5 in the first round against the Bucks. They fell behind by seven again in the final 50 seconds of Game 2 in the second round against the Cavaliers. And in Game 1 against the Knicks, they were down 14 points with 2:51 remaining. Indiana managed to win each of these games.

“It`s how we orchestrated this team,” commented Pacers center Myles Turner, the team`s longest-tenured player. “It`s not the flashiest, sexiest team. We just get results.”

Last Time They Met

The Thunder, who compiled the best interconference record in NBA history at 29-1 against the Eastern Conference, won both regular-season meetings this season. However, their victory in Indianapolis on December 26 required a fourth-quarter comeback. Trailing by four points with 3:42 left after a 7-0 Pacers run, Oklahoma City responded with eight consecutive points to take control, with Jalen Williams contributing half of those points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remained the standout performer with 45 points on 15-of-22 shooting, including four of five three-pointers and a perfect 11-for-11 from the free-throw line.

The meeting in Oklahoma City on March 29 offered little drama. Oklahoma City built a dominant 22-point lead after three quarters. The Thunder connected on 17 three-pointers, including six from Luguentz Dort and five off the bench from Isaiah Joe.

How many times will this Oklahoma City core reach this stage?

The NBA is currently in an era of high parity, with six different champions over the past six seasons (and a seventh to be crowned this year), but the Thunder display dynasty potential. This is the second-youngest team (average age: 25.6 years) to advance to the Finals, trailing only the 1976-77 Portland Trail Blazers championship team, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The deep Thunder roster is constructed around a 26-year-old MVP in Gilgeous-Alexander, a 24-year-old All-NBA selection in Williams, and a 23-year-old potential future Defensive Player of the Year in Holmgren. Furthermore, general manager Sam Presti has amassed 13 first-round draft picks over the next seven years. While the history of Oklahoma City`s last Finals team (which featured MVPs Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden) serves as a cautionary tale that future success is never guaranteed in the NBA, the current Thunder team enters the Finals as strong favorites, and it`s easy to envision them becoming regular contenders in June.

Can Indiana win a strength vs. strength battle?

The Thunder`s defense will arguably be the most formidable challenge for the Pacers offense to overcome. It is a healthy, swarming, and incredibly athletic unit with the youth and speed to match (and potentially thrive against) Indiana`s up-tempo style. The Pacers have benefited in previous rounds by seemingly catching each of their playoff opponents off guard with their speed, forcing them into uncomfortable situations and uncharacteristic mistakes. Indiana brings more Finals experience to the series, and coach Rick Carlisle will certainly attempt to dictate the terms of the series, as he successfully did in the previous three rounds. However, the perceived gap between the top teams in the Western and Eastern Conferences has seemed wide for much of the season, which explains why Oklahoma City enters the series as significant favorites. The Pacers have embraced and thrived in their underdog role throughout the playoffs. Can they manage to pull off one more massive upset?

Matchup to Watch

Tyrese Haliburton vs. Luguentz Dort

This is a clash between the All-NBA guard and the first-team All-Defense stopper. Haliburton is the primary engine driving the Pacers` offense, but he has historically struggled when matched up against Dort. Over the past two seasons, Haliburton averaged just 12 points per game against the Thunder, his lowest average against any opponent. According to GeniusIQ tracking, he also attempted shots at a lower rate when guarded by Dort than by any other defender.

If the Thunder can effectively slow down Haliburton, similar to their success in the regular season, and thereby disrupt the flow of Indiana`s offense, this series might not be a long one. However, if Haliburton can find a way to overcome Dort`s physical defense and keep the Pacers` offense humming efficiently, Indiana has a genuine opportunity to shock the basketball world and upset the favored Thunder.

How the Thunder Can Win It All

The Thunder can secure the championship by simply continuing the level of play they have maintained throughout the regular season and playoffs. A Finals victory would complete a historically dominant season for Oklahoma City, which posted the best regular-season point differential ever (plus-12.9 PPG) and enters the Finals with the best point differential (plus-10.8) of any team since the 2017 Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors.

More specifically, the Thunder`s success in this series will heavily depend on their continued dominance in turnover differential, which has proven to be a critical factor throughout the playoffs. Oklahoma City is simultaneously forcing significantly more turnovers than any other team (18.0 per game) while averaging fewer turnovers on offense than any team that advanced past the first round (11.6). This impressive differential (6.4 per game) would be the largest for a team playing multiple playoff series since the league began tracking team turnovers in 1973-74.

How the Pacers Can Win It All

Indiana`s path to hoisting the Larry O`Brien Trophy involves succeeding in three key areas.

First, the Pacers must avoid losing the turnover battle by the substantial margin that other Thunder opponents have experienced. There are promising signs here: Haliburton is recognized as one of the league`s most careful guards with the ball, and Indiana ranked third in lowest turnover rate during both the regular season and playoffs. Protecting the ball will be crucial to limiting Oklahoma City`s demoralizing, game-changing transition sequences.

Second, the Pacers need to win the 3-point shooting battle decisively. Again, there`s reason for optimism, as Indiana leads all playoff teams with an excellent 40.1% mark from beyond the arc, while Oklahoma City`s shooters have collectively struggled somewhat (33.6% in this postseason).

And finally, the Pacers must find ways to win the close games. The Thunder are dominant enough that they are likely to secure one or two blowout victories in the Finals, having won at least one game by 30+ points in every series so far. But if Indiana can consistently win the games that are competitive down the stretch, an upset becomes possible. The Pacers have demonstrated strong performance in clutch situations during these playoffs, holding a 7-1 record in such games.

Best Bets

Best bet for the Thunder:

Thunder win series 4-2 (+400)

The Thunder`s elite defense, impressive net rating (+11.2), and the presence of superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander give them the clear advantage. It is difficult to envision the Pacers offense achieving the same level of success against an Oklahoma City team that forced nearly 18 turnovers per 100 possessions. The Thunder possess a deep roster, exhibit disciplined play, and are highly motivated to etch their names into NBA history.

Best bet for the Pacers:

Pacers +2.5 series handicap (+110)

While the Thunder are justifiably considered the clear favorites entering the Finals, the Pacers are arguably better than they are given credit for. Since January 1st, including playoff games, the Thunder have the NBA`s best record (53-13). However, the Pacers hold the second-best record during this span (46-18), surpassing the Boston Celtics (43-17) and Cleveland Cavaliers (40-18). If either the Celtics or Cavaliers, based on their strong regular seasons, had reached the Finals, a competitive series would have been widely expected. Because the Pacers experienced a slower start to the season, there is a perception that the Finals will be a blowout. The Pacers were demonstrably the top team in the Eastern Conference during calendar year 2025 and are more likely to make this a competitive series than the current betting odds suggest.

Additional betting insights for the 2025 NBA Finals are available.