NBA Christmas Games Analysis: Title Hopes and Concerns for the League’s Top 10 Teams

Number that inspires concern: 12%

The Thunder’s favorable early-season schedule has been a topic of discussion. During their impressive 24-1 start, only three of those 25 games (12%) were played against Detroit, New York, or teams currently ranked in the top six of the Western Conference. However, 21 of their remaining 57 games (37%) are scheduled against these top-tier opponents.

Following losses to the Spurs (three times, including on Christmas) and the Timberwolves, the Thunder now hold a 3-4 record with a minus-0.6 point differential against the league`s best teams, compared to a dominant 23-1 record with a plus-18.2 margin against all others. While they remain the clear title favorite, they must prove they can consistently overcome elite competition in the playoffs.

Number that inspires concern: 40%

Mitchell Robinson`s free-throw percentage, currently sitting at 40%, remains a serious worry. While he recently boosted this average with a 10-for-13 stretch, this rate is still highly worrisome. Robinson`s size and offensive rebounding skills make him vital (New York has a plus-8.5 net rating with him on the floor), but the threat of the “Hack-a-Mitch” tactic—given his career 39% playoff free throw rate—could severely limit his effectiveness in high-leverage playoff moments.

Number that inspires concern: 12%

While the Nuggets currently boast the most efficient offense in league history, their defense ranks only 17th. A key defensive issue is exposure: a league-high 12% of their opponents` shot attempts are valuable corner 3-pointers, according to Cleaning the Glass. Opponents are making 37% of these attempts, highlighting a vulnerability that could be exploited in the postseason.

Number that inspires concern: 26%

Among 174 players with at least 100 jump shots this season, Amen Thompson ranks last with a 26% effective field goal percentage (eFG%) on jumpers, while Alperen Sengun ranks 163rd at 42%. While both young stars have improved overall and rank high in team scoring, they still struggle significantly to score away from the basket.

Despite having knockdown shooters like Kevin Durant, crunch time in the playoffs could become strategically challenging if the Rockets frequently deploy two non-shooters (Sengun and Thompson) simultaneously, or even three if Adams is added for rebounding.

Number that inspires concern: $22 million

The Cavaliers are the only team currently positioned above the second luxury tax apron, exceeding that threshold by just over $22 million. This financial status creates significant on-court limitations. Because of the severe apron restrictions, the Cavaliers have fewer options to improve their underachieving roster through in-season transactions. They cannot take back more salary in a trade than they send out, cannot aggregate salaries, and are restricted from signing high-salary buyout players.

Number that inspires concern: 28.8%

Two young Spurs guards, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle, are shooting a combined 28.8% from three-point range. While lineups featuring Castle, Harper, and Wembanyama have been overwhelmingly dominant in a small sample size (a plus-51.1 net rating over 55 minutes), these low perimeter shooting percentages present a warning sign for the playoffs.

During the postseason, smart, locked-in defenses will focus on crowding Wembanyama inside, forcing his young teammates to convert perimeter shots. Whether Harper and Castle can hit those shots will likely determine if San Antonio is a legitimate Finals threat this year or if they need more developmental seasoning.

Number that inspires concern: 42

The flip side of their defensive strength is offensive weakness, which has kept Golden State near the .500 mark. The Warriors rank just 23rd in offensive rating, their worst mark of the Stephen Curry era (excluding the injury-plagued 2019-20 season). A primary culprit is the lack of easy interior scoring: they average only 42 points per game in the paint, the fewest of any team except the Nets.

While the Warriors have never been paint-dominant, during their four-year peak (2014-15 through 2017-18), they consistently ranked in the top half of the league in paint points, never falling to the bottom tier.

Number that inspires concern: 18.4

The situation where Minnesota’s lack of a true point guard is most apparent is the clutch. The Timberwolves suffer from an 18.4% clutch turnover rate, by far the worst in the league (the Clippers and Trail Blazers are the only other teams above 14%).

Turnover rate typically decreases in the clutch due to increased free throws and one-on-one play, but the opposite is true for Minnesota. These late-game giveaways have directly contributed to crucial losses and are an execution failure they cannot afford to repeat in tight playoff series.

Number that inspires concern: 4.9

Looking at their underlying metrics, the Lakers` net rating suggests they `should` have approximately 14.1 wins, not their actual 19. That 4.9-win gap is the largest in the league. Simply put, there is no precedent for a team with such a mediocre résumé (being outscored by 0.5 points per game) to win the title in the modern playoff format. The champion with the worst point differential since 1983-84 was the 1994-95 Rockets, at plus-2.1.

However, recent history offers some hope, as multiple finalists have caught fire in the playoffs after middling regular seasons (e.g., the 2022-23 Heat, 2023-24 Mavericks).

Number that inspires concern: 98

More than any other team on this list, Dallas is playing for the future. It is a major concern that Dereck Lively II, who appears to be the team’s long-term center, has played only 98 games (40% of available games) over three NBA seasons due to persistent injuries, including foot surgery that ended his 2025-26 campaign early. While Lively, Cooper Flagg, and Nembhard form a promising young core, reliance on Lively to remain on the court is becoming increasingly difficult.