NBA Breakout Players for 2025-26: Early Predictions

As the 2024-25 NBA season nears its end, it`s a perfect moment to reflect on the breakout player forecasts made last October. We`re evaluating the accuracy of those predictions, noting both successes and unexpected disappointments.

Before the season began, we anticipated the trajectory of 11 players, suggesting, for instance, Evan Mobley`s potential to become Cleveland`s primary offensive weapon. However, we didn`t foresee Brandin Podziemski of Golden State experiencing a decrease in efficiency.

Let`s revisit some of our correct and incorrect calls regarding these players. With insights from ESPN`s Chris Herring, we`ll also offer an initial preview of players who might significantly improve in the 2025-26 season.

Sections:
Breakout Hits | Breakout Misses
Early Picks for 2025-26

Looking Back at the Successes

Evan Mobley

Cleveland Cavaliers
Center

Sources from Cleveland indicated that coach Kenny Atkinson intended to develop Mobley, 23, as a central offensive figure. This vision was reportedly a key factor in Atkinson`s hiring in June 2024. By March, the Cavaliers were leading the Eastern Conference with a 58-14 record and boasted the league`s most efficient offense (121.5 offensive rating). It`s evident that Atkinson had a strategy in place for the talented 7-footer.

Mobley has achieved a career-high average of 18.6 points per game, significantly increased his 3-point attempts, and maintained his strong defense. He has become a cornerstone for the top team in the East and earned an All-Star selection, performing as a premier two-way center in the NBA.

Key Stat: Beyond scoring, Mobley`s usage rate (22.6%), true shooting percentage (64%), and net rating (+13.2) are all at career peaks. This highlights the positive relationship between his personal development and Cleveland`s rise as a contender. The Cavaliers have creatively integrated him into their offense, reducing pressure on guards like Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, who are also having exceptional seasons.

Jalen Williams

Oklahoma City Thunder
Forward/Guard

Predicting Williams as a breakout player was logical, given his talent and expanded on-ball responsibilities with Josh Giddey`s absence in Oklahoma City. If anything, his subsequent All-Star selection surpassed initial expectations. In October, the question was whether Williams could reach All-Star status or remain a high-level supporting player.

Williams has played a versatile defensive role, often guarding larger opponents in smaller lineups, particularly when Chet Holmgren was injured for a significant period. Despite a hip injury in March, Williams has progressed towards stardom.

Key Stat: While his offensive role has slightly impacted efficiency, Williams, at 23, has set career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks with a 26.8% usage rate. The Thunder`s league-best 60-12 record is no coincidence; they rely on him to lead the offense when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needs rest, while also contributing defensively, ranking high in deflections per game (3.6). Few young players manage such two-way responsibilities effectively.

Jalen Green

Houston Rockets
Guard

While Green`s statistics haven`t dramatically improved, his emergence as the leading scorer for a Rockets team that has significantly surpassed last season`s win total is noteworthy. In his first year of a three-year extension, Green is consistently performing in a winning environment as the team`s primary option. It often takes time for scoring guards to develop, and Green is beginning to excel for the patient Rockets, alongside fellow young talents like Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun.

Key Stat: Green has become more efficient compared to last season, improving his percentile ranking as a pick-and-roll ball handler and significantly in spot-up situations, according to Synergy. Making better decisions with the ball and adapting to play off-ball within a talented roster are crucial steps forward for Green.

Regretting the Misses

Franz Wagner

Orlando Magic
Forward

A re-evaluation is needed for Wagner. His trajectory seemed upward after a strong performance for Germany at the Paris Olympics. He was expected to take on a larger role with Paolo Banchero in Orlando. However, a torn oblique on December 6, causing him to miss 20 games, disrupted these plans.

Wagner has still been productive when healthy, increasing his scoring average to a career-high 24.3 points per game and carrying a 30.8% usage rate. The Magic`s inconsistency and likely play-in tournament appearance have been affected. While the injury impacted his All-Star aspirations, a breakout season for Wagner remains likely.

Key Stat: Wagner`s 3-point shooting remains around 30% despite increased attempts. Given his 85% free throw percentage and previous seasons of 35% and 36% from three, improvement from long range is anticipated, though shooting development can be unpredictable.

Jalen Johnson

Atlanta Hawks
Forward

Johnson`s inclusion here is also due to injury. His season ended prematurely on January 29 with a torn labrum requiring surgery. Prior to this, predicting a breakout season for Johnson seemed accurate. In 36 games, he achieved career highs across the board, averaging 18.9 points, 10 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1 block per game, becoming Atlanta`s second-best player after Trae Young.

However, availability has been a recurring issue for Johnson, with significant injuries ending his last two seasons early. While his potential breakout was evident, consistent health remains a barrier to true stardom.

Key Stat: Despite his incomplete season, Johnson is among a select group of NBA regulars with usage and assist rates over 20% and a rebound rate above 13%. He demonstrated success in the versatile role envisioned by the Hawks; sustained health is now crucial for him to fulfill this potential over a full season.

Brandin Podziemski

Golden State Warriors
Guard

Podziemski seemed like a strong breakout candidate for his second year, especially with Golden State aiming to be more competitive. While he has seen consistent minutes, including starting in February, his efficiency has declined (53.6% true shooting percentage). As previously noted, for Golden State to contend, Podziemski needed to improve his efficiency and defensive contributions.

Coach Steve Kerr has experimented with lineups, with additions like Jimmy Butler and playing time for Buddy Hield, Moses Moody, and Gary Payton II. Podziemski remains part of Golden State`s future but hasn`t been as vital recently, navigating shooting struggles as he adapts to the NBA.

Key Stat: His 3-point percentage has decreased, but Podziemski`s overall shooting development is expected. Improving his ability to generate easy shots and paint opportunities will be important. This might be related to his evolving role, but as a player reliant on skill rather than physicality, he`ll need to address this long-term.

Early Breakout Picks for 2025-26

Determining genuine potential versus temporary performance is always challenging, especially late in the season when team priorities vary. Despite this, several young, impactful players have emerged. Some are on playoff-bound teams, while others are building for the future. The following five players have potential to be more influential next season, given their age and current progress.

Toumani Camara

Portland Trail Blazers
Forward

Camara`s defensive ability is exceptional for a second-year player. He excels as a point-of-attack defender, evidenced by his performance against Tyrese Haliburton in February. He also defends larger players effectively, including MVPs like Antetokounmpo and Jokic. Additionally, he`s a capable role player and scorer, shooting 37% from 3, rebounding well, and contributing defensively with steals and blocks.

Key Stat: Camara, 24, leads the NBA in charges drawn. This reflects his anticipation as a help defender. His defensive plays, including chase-down blocks, are consistent. He is a significant reason for Portland`s improved defense since the All-Star break.

Amen Thompson

Houston Rockets
Forward

Thompson`s athleticism is evident, but his play this season appears more purposeful than in his rookie year. He`s a defensive asset and has shown playmaking ability, recording three triple-doubles, including against top teams. While his perimeter shooting needs improvement, he shows potential for stardom, even without becoming a consistent shooter.

Key Stat: The Rockets have maintained a winning record when Fred VanVleet is absent, potentially due to Thompson`s increased role. Houston`s performance improves significantly when Thompson plays without VanVleet. He has averaged impressive stats as a starter, demonstrating his growing impact.

Dyson Daniels

Atlanta Hawks
Guard

Daniels has been impressive in his first season with the Hawks, potentially in contention for Most Improved Player. However, next season could be even better for him and Atlanta.

Hawks coach Quin Snyder notes Daniels`s remarkable recovery ability on defense, sometimes leading to teammates over-helping. Learning to play with Trae Young should further benefit Daniels, who is already achieving career numbers in his third year. His improved shooting percentages since the All-Star break are encouraging, building on his already strong defense.

Key Stat: Daniels leads the league in deflections by a significant margin. His steal count this season is also remarkable, the highest in over a decade, highlighting his defensive impact.

Jaden Ivey

Detroit Pistons
Guard

Ivey`s season ended prematurely due to injury, but both he and the Pistons had reasons for optimism beforehand. After a challenging previous season, Ivey showed significant improvement this season, particularly in 3-point shooting and true shooting percentage. This is promising for his future alongside Cade Cunningham. Improvements in mid-range shooting are also expected upon his return.

Key Stat: Before his injury, Ivey had several impactful moments, including game-winning plays. His clutch shooting percentage also improved significantly compared to the previous season.

Quentin Grimes

Philadelphia 76ers
Guard

Including Grimes here might be unfair, considering his recent scoring surge with the 76ers. Despite the Sixers` current instability, Grimes, 24, is experiencing his best professional stretch since his rookie season, averaging nearly 29 points per game in March. This is a significant increase from his previous season high of 11.3 points per game.

Key Stat: Grimes`s increased usage rate with the Sixers might not be sustainable when key players return. However, his 46-point performance demonstrates his potential value, even in a reduced role. His recent performances are significant, especially as he approaches restricted free agency.