Aryna Sabalenka has maintained her position as the world No. 1 in the WTA rankings for over five months and recently surpassed Madison Keys in the Race to the WTA Finals. This year, she has participated in six tournaments, and the upcoming Miami Open final on Saturday will mark her fourth final appearance.
Is there anyone capable of halting Sabalenka`s dominant form in women`s tennis?
Jessica Pegula is next to challenge her. “Aryna, we meet again in a hard-court final,” Pegula commented after her victory against 19-year-old Alexander Eala. “I believe I am among the top hard-court players globally, but she is likely the best.”
On the relatively fast court at Hard Rock Stadium, Sabalenka has been consistently hitting winners, even from defensive positions. Following her dominant win over Jasmine Paolini, Sabalenka admitted to feeling in top form.
Sabalenka has joined Steffi Graf (1994) and Martina Hingis (2000) as only the third player to reach the finals of Indian Wells, Miami, and the Australian Open in the same season while holding the World No. 1 ranking.
Pegula and Sabalenka have a history of eight matches, with Sabalenka leading 6-2. How will their ninth encounter unfold in Miami? Let`s examine the prospects for both players:
Advantage: Sabalenka
Break points are crucial moments in tennis. Against Paolini, Sabalenka demonstrated exceptional clutch performance, saving all four break points against her serve and converting four out of five on Paolini`s serve.
One of Sabalenka`s strengths is her aggressive and confident play. Serving at 4-2 in the second set against Paolini, facing break points at 15-40, Sabalenka responded with three powerful serves followed by immediate winners.
Sabalenka has conceded only 23 games in her ten sets played in Miami. In contrast, Pegula has lost 44 games.
Mental fortitude, once considered a weakness for Sabalenka, may now be her most significant asset on the WTA Tour.
Pegula won their first match in Cincinnati five years ago, but Sabalenka has won six of their subsequent seven encounters, all in straight sets.
Tennis Channel analyst Martina Navratilova noted, “I think she’s a harder opponent now than she was at the US Open.”
Sabalenka`s current mindset is also a key factor. Despite an impressive 22-4 match record this year, her two final losses, at the Australian Open to Madison Keys and Indian Wells to Mirra Andreeva, were particularly disappointing.
“We never lose,” Sabalenka stated, “we only learn. Sometimes, opponents play freely with nothing to lose and hit incredible shots, leaving you wondering what`s happening.”
“I believe in those finals, I focused more on my opponents than on my own game.”
Singer Bon Jovi was present at Sabalenka`s semifinal match. Her ambition in Miami goes beyond just “Livin’ On A Prayer.”
“This time, I really feel I will perform better than in my previous two finals,” Sabalenka expressed.
Advantage: Pegula
Could there be an element of fate at play?
At 31, Pegula is the third player in her 30s to reach the Miami Open women`s final in the last three years. Both Petra Kvitova (2023) and Danielle Collins (2024) won the title in their respective years.
Pegula might feel that her time to win in Miami has arrived.
This is Pegula`s third Miami Open semifinal, having previously lost at this stage to Iga Swiatek (2022) and Elena Rybakina (2023). Despite being later in her career, Pegula continues to achieve breakthroughs. She had lost six major quarterfinals before finally reaching the final at last year’s US Open.
The prestigious WTA 1000 events ignite Pegula’s competitive drive. This Miami final will be her sixth. Three of Pegula`s seven career titles are at the WTA 1000 level: Guadalajara (2022), Montreal (2023), and Toronto (2024). Winning Miami would secure her a WTA 1000 title for the fourth consecutive year.
When asked about her success at these major tournaments, Pegula responded, “I`m not really sure what it is, but I`m happy it happens at the 1000s – it`s always positive. In big tournaments, I can win crucial matches under pressure. I will try to bring my best.”
“Aryna is one of the best at this, so Saturday will be a significant challenge.”
Pegula`s on-court message after her semifinal win was “I`m tired,” given the late hour. However, her excellent physical condition and over 36 hours for recovery should benefit her.
Remarkably, this is Pegula`s third WTA 1000 final after turning 30. Since 2009, only Serena Williams (16) and Li Na (4) have reached more WTA 1000 finals after age 30. Pegula is performing exceptionally well at an age when many players consider retirement, and she aims to maximize these opportunities.
She has the chance to become the oldest player to defeat a world No. 1 in a WTA final since Martina Navratilova`s victory over Monica Seles in Paris in 1993.
“I think I can bring some different elements on Saturday,” Pegula said. “I will simply play my game. I know I`ve had opportunities against her before, and I’ll do my best to capitalize on them as much as possible.”
