The Toronto Maple Leafs are heading into the final day of the regular season with a clear understanding of their standing in the 2026 NHL Draft lottery. Their recent performance has placed them among the top non-playoff teams, though not at the very bottom of the standings.
This position gives Toronto a realistic, albeit not dominant, opportunity to secure the first overall selection. The team’s highly discussed top-five protected first-round pick remains a significant point of interest for fans, the front office, and even those who closely follow draft odds.
NHL Lottery Field at the Top
The Vancouver Canucks have already secured the best odds for the first overall pick, concluding a season focused on a significant reset. Following them, the Chicago Blackhawks are locked into the second-best odds, marking their fourth consecutive year with a top-four selection. The New York Rangers and Calgary Flames are next in line, with both teams positioned to make only minor shifts in the draft order on the final day.
Toronto’s Exact Odds and Range
Entering the last day of the season, Toronto holds the fifth-best odds for the first overall selection. This ranking reflects a season that fell short of preseason expectations. However, it also prevents them from dropping too far down the draft order if the lottery balls don’t favor them. While the Leafs can no longer move into the top three based on standings alone, they are also insulated from falling into the middle of the pack before the lottery draw.
Current projections indicate Vancouver leads the lottery field with a 25.5% chance at the first overall pick. Chicago follows with 13.5%, then the Rangers at 11.5%, and the Flames at 9.5%. Toronto’s fifth-place position gives them an 8.5% chance at the top selection, keeping them in contention, though not among the top favorites.
These projections also show how the odds become more compressed further down the draft board. Toronto’s odds for the second overall pick are in the mid-single digits, only slightly behind Calgary and not dramatically lower than the teams ahead of them. The NHL’s current lottery structure limits how much a team can move up or down, creating a narrow range of potential outcomes for teams in Toronto’s position.
Most Likely Maple Leafs Outcomes
From a purely probabilistic standpoint, the most probable outcome for the Maple Leafs is a pick close to their current standing. While the lottery can produce significant swings, the range of movement is limited. With the Canucks and Blackhawks holding the top two odds and the Rangers and Flames positioned just ahead, Toronto’s most realistic scenarios range from the first overall pick in an optimistic outcome to the latter half of the top ten if luck is not on their side.
A more significant factor for Toronto is the condition attached to their 2026 first-round pick. The Maple Leafs traded this pick to the Boston Bruins as part of the deal for Brandon Carlo, with top-five protection. If Toronto’s pick lands within the top five after the lottery, they retain it and instead owe Boston a future unprotected first-round pick. If the pick falls to sixth or lower, the Bruins receive this year’s selection, and the Leafs keep their 2027 first-round pick.
Impact of the Conditional Pick
This protection clause significantly influences how the final day of the season and the lottery itself will be perceived in Toronto. As long as they maintain the fifth-best odds, the Leafs are in a position where a moderate lottery win allows them to keep their draft asset, while a modest slide sends it to Boston. The difference between selecting fourth, fifth, or sixth in the draft order may not seem substantial in terms of raw percentages, but it is a critical distinction for which franchise ultimately makes the selection.
Surrounding Toronto, the Seattle Kraken, Winnipeg Jets, and Florida Panthers represent the next tier of non-playoff teams. Seattle’s current standing places them just behind Toronto in terms of odds for the first overall pick, while Winnipeg and Florida are further back. These teams may see minor shifts in the standings on the final day, but none can leap into Toronto’s protected range without significant lottery fortune.
What Changes on the Final Day
Conversely, the Maple Leafs have very little room for movement in the standings on the final night of the regular season. Even a win or a loss in their last game will not drastically alter their pre-lottery position due to the existing gaps between them and the teams above and below. The true suspense will build later, during the lottery draw, when the exact pick number is revealed and it becomes clear whether Toronto or Boston will be making the selection on draft night.
For Toronto fans, this creates a peculiar balance heading into the final day. The season did not deliver the anticipated playoff run, but it has positioned the team for a draft scenario where a top-five pick is a distinct possibility. While the Leafs won’t have the highest odds, they will be at the center of one of the league’s most closely watched conditional pick narratives when the lottery balls ultimately drop.
