The New Balance Stadium in Bergamo is set to host a critical 2026 FIFA World Cup playoff semi-final clash between Italy and Northern Ireland. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the Azzurri, as they desperately aim to secure a spot in the prestigious international tournament for the first time since 2014.
Italy’s last appearance at a World Cup was over a decade ago in Brazil. Having subsequently missed two consecutive tournaments, another failure to qualify would be a significant blow for the four-time world champions. Despite winning six of their eight qualifying matches in the current cycle, Gennaro Gattuso’s squad finds itself once again facing a challenging playoff route.
A troubling history for Italian supporters reveals their elimination in the playoffs for both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. After a defeat to Sweden in 2017, the Azzurri suffered a surprising loss to North Macedonia in the most recent qualifying campaign. This past experience underscores the danger of underestimating Northern Ireland.
Despite their underdog status, the Green & White Army arrives in Bergamo highly motivated to defy expectations. Their goal is to reach the World Cup finals for the first time since 1986. The visitors might draw confidence from the fact that Mexico, a co-host of the upcoming tournament, also hosted the last World Cup they participated in four decades prior.
Match Analysis
Italy
Despite a strong 75% win rate in qualifying Group I, Italy finished second behind Norway, who had a flawless campaign. The Azzurri, in fact, lost both their encounters against the Scandinavian powerhouse by three-goal margins, including a disappointing 4-1 defeat at home in their most recent fixture.
This heavy loss is the only blemish on Gattuso’s otherwise impressive record as Italy coach (five wins) and serves as a crucial reminder for the Azzurri not to become complacent. On a more positive note, the Italians managed to score at least three goals in four of their five victories under the guidance of the former AC Milan midfielder.
Another dominant performance could be expected, given Italy’s undefeated streak in their last eight matches against Northern Ireland (six wins, two draws), during which they kept an impressive seven clean sheets. Furthermore, they secured a 2-0 victory when these two teams last met on Italian soil during the 2022 World Cup qualifiers.
Northern Ireland
Michael O’Neill’s team will need to counter Italy’s typically aggressive starts at home. The Azzurri have led at halftime in four of their last five home games, demonstrating their ability to pressure opponents from the kickoff. It’s also noteworthy that the visitors have lost the second half in five of their last six away fixtures.
While this paints a challenging picture for Northern Ireland, they should approach this game with renewed confidence after winning their UEFA Nations League group. However, they have also lost two of their last three international matches without scoring, which is a concern, especially since they have never managed to score against Italy on Italian soil.
Adding to their woes, the Green & White Army has a poor away record, securing only one victory in their last ten matches played in foreign territories (two draws, seven losses). This dismal travel form is further emphasized by the fact that their sole win in this period came against the lesser-ranked Luxembourg.
Team Updates
Gattuso has received positive news on the injury front. Alessandro Bastoni and Riccardo Calafiori have both recovered from their fitness concerns and are available for selection tonight. Nicolo Cambiaghi from Bologna has been called up to replace the injured Federico Chiesa, and it is rumored that Inter’s young talent Francesco Pio Esposito is slated to start in attack over Mateo Retegui.
Conversely, Northern Ireland coach O’Neill welcomes back George Saville from suspension, with the Luton Town midfielder expected to rejoin the starting lineup. Additionally, Shea Charles and Ali McCann have both overcome their injury setbacks and are vying for a place in the initial eleven.
Italy vs Northern Ireland Predicted Starting Lineups
Italy (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Calafiori, Mancini, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Tonali, Locatelli, Barella, Dimarco; Kean, Esposito.
Northern Ireland (5-3-2): P. Charles; Hume, McConville, Brown, McNair, Devenny; Saville, S. Charles, McCann; Price, Reid.
Italy vs Northern Ireland Match Forecast
The clear difference in quality between the two teams is expected to be the deciding factor. Italy is anticipated to live up to their status as favorites and comfortably secure their place in the playoff final.
Prediction: Italy to Win
