Is Tanking in the NBA Fixable? Examining the Rise and Potential Solutions

In a game on March 14th, when the Utah Jazz hosted the Toronto Raptors, what should have been a chance for the Jazz to break a seven-game home losing streak against a team with a losing record, turned into something else. Despite Jazz`s top scorer Lauri Markkanen returning to the starting lineup after missing six games, the game devolved in the fourth quarter.

Instead of a showdown between Markkanen and Scottie Barnes, fans witnessed a final quarter dominated by rookies and reserve players. Markkanen sat out the entire second half, while Barnes and Toronto`s other seasoned starters only played the first couple of minutes in the fourth quarter before being done for the night.

As the game hung in the balance, both teams ended up with five rookies on the court and only one player, Utah`s Brice Sensabaugh, who averages double-digit points this season. The Raptors won, extending the Jazz`s losing streak to eight games. This loss also moved Utah closer to having one of the three worst records in the league, which increases their chances of getting the coveted No. 1 draft pick.

Towards the end of each NBA season, there are essentially two competitions: one for playoff spots and another to secure the best odds in the draft lottery.

This year, the race to the bottom is intensifying due to several factors, including the presence of Duke`s Cooper Flagg, considered a generational talent, and typical rebuilding teams like the Jazz, Raptors, and Wizards. They are joined by teams like the 76ers, Spurs, and Pelicans, whose seasons have been hampered by injuries.

Despite recent measures to limit star players from sitting out games, the issue of tanking persists. While the NBA considers new ways to discourage it, teams looking to lose are finding innovative strategies to accumulate losses late in the season.

One NBA executive commented, “These next few weeks could be the most blatant stretch of tanking we`ve ever seen.”

Why NBA Teams Engage in Tanking

Those involved in the annual race to the bottom acknowledge it`s not an enjoyable process. Teams don`t typically aim to lose as much as possible.

However, they also agree that securing a high draft pick is the most reliable way to achieve long-term success. This perspective is not expected to change anytime soon.

Evan Wasch, NBA’s executive vice president of strategy and analytics, stated, “Philosophically, I`m unaware of any serious effort to change our current draft philosophy, which is to give top picks to teams that need talent the most. It’s a core principle of our draft system.”

The current system, last modified in 2019, uses a lottery to distribute the top four draft picks. The three teams with the worst records each have a 14% chance at the top pick and a 52.1% chance at a top-four pick. The odds decrease for teams with better records in the lottery, with the team having the “best” record among lottery teams having only a 0.5% chance at the top pick and a 2.1% chance at a top-four pick.

The lottery exists because historically, landing a high draft pick is seen as the most direct route to acquiring a franchise-altering player.

Over the last 45 years, only five championship teams were not led by a player who either had won or would win the NBA MVP award: last year`s Celtics, the 2019 Raptors, and the Pistons in 1989, 1990, and 2004.

Among the other 40 championship teams, 14 elite players were featured, including legends like Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, and LeBron James.

Five of these 14 were No. 1 overall picks, and only four were drafted outside the top seven.

Even among the five exceptions, only the Raptors, led by Kawhi Leonard, had their best player drafted outside the top three. The 2004 Finals MVP, Chauncey Billups, was a third overall pick, the same draft position as current Celtics stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Isiah Thomas, the leader of the Pistons` championships in 1989 and 1990, was drafted second overall in 1981.

In the past 45 years, only five NBA champions were spearheaded by a player drafted outside the top seven.

This is the primary reason for tanking in the NBA, and this season is no different.

Tanking Strategies This Season

The NBA introduced a `player participation policy` before the 2023-24 season, not specifically targeting tanking, but aiming to prevent healthy star players from sitting out games. However, it also affects lottery-bound teams, requiring them to have legitimate reasons for resting star players.

The Jazz were fined $100,000 for violating this policy earlier in March for not playing Markkanen in a game against the Wizards, among others.

While this fine is a minor cost for a potentially high draft pick, escalating fines for further violations are pushing teams to find alternative tanking strategies, such as what the Jazz did in their March 14th game against Toronto.

Markkanen`s limited play in that game is an extreme example of a strategy the Raptors have employed since the All-Star break: benching key players during critical moments.

Since then, Toronto has played 37.5 `clutch` minutes (defined as games within five points in the last five minutes or overtime). Surprisingly, they`ve given more clutch minutes to players signed mid-season or on two-way contracts (46 minutes combined) than to their leading scorers Barnes and Barrett (43 minutes).

Similarly, the Jazz have drastically reduced Markkanen`s clutch minutes to just four since the All-Star break. Notably, Utah has been careful to limit Markkanen`s appearances against other lottery-bound teams. He has missed games against teams with a combined .450 winning percentage, compared to a .545 winning percentage against teams he has played.

Jazz center Walker Kessler has also been consistently sidelined, including in the game against Toronto. Initially listed as `rest` for six games, including the one where Markkanen was fined for sitting out, Kessler`s absence against Toronto was officially a `DNP-CD` (Did Not Play – Coach`s Decision).

Jazz coach Will Hardy commented earlier this month, “[Fans] know we’re rebuilding, but I believe our players compete in a way that’s still enjoyable. Our young players play hard, and while we`re imperfect and games can be messy, the competitive spirit and energy of these young guys are something our fans appreciate.”

He added, “For our team, it’s a point of pride that no matter who’s on the court, our fans see a team that plays with passion and joy.”

Wasch from the NBA stated that they will continue to monitor player availability, especially for star players like Markkanen, but see no issue with teams strategically benching starters in crucial moments.

“We don’t police rotations in that manner,” Wasch said. “For the league to intervene and say a team made the wrong choice by playing one player over another, it`s a slippery slope… And sometimes, these younger players actually end up winning the game.”

Cooper Flagg: A Generational Prospect Fueling Tanking

Entering the college season, there was debate about whether Cooper Flagg was the top prospect for the 2025 draft. He was in discussion with Rutgers` Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, and Baylor`s VJ Edgecombe.

However, Flagg’s performance, making him a contender for National Player of the Year as one of the youngest college players, has settled that debate. NBA scouts from tanking teams are now assessing where Flagg ranks among top No. 1 picks historically.

One scout noted, “What’s unique about him is his youth, even by freshman standards. Yet, despite this, he’s been productive in every aspect of the game against top competition.”

Analytics experts at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference placed Flagg around the 85th percentile of No. 1 picks, indicating he`s projected to be better than 85% of them.

Since 2005, the first draft with the NBA’s age limit, Flagg’s projected Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) ranks third among top picks, only behind Anthony Davis (2012) and Zion Williamson (2019). Both Davis and Williamson also spurred intense tanking races.

Stats-based projections favor Flagg due to his production relative to his young age. His main competitor for National Player of the Year is significantly older.

Most players Flagg’s age are still in high school. Flagg reclassified in summer 2023, putting him on track to be the second-youngest No. 1 pick, just behind LeBron James, and younger than Kwame Brown and Dwight Howard.

While Flagg’s age and performance are no guarantee of championships, they explain the intense desire of teams to draft him.

Potential Solutions to Curb Tanking

The NBA has shown willingness to adapt, but changes take time.

Here are five potential anti-tanking measures discussed around the league:

1. Further Flatten Lottery Odds

Historically, the NBA lottery gave all non-playoff teams equal odds. This changed after the Magic won consecutive top picks in 1992 and 1993. One executive suggests further flattening the odds from the 2019 adjustments.

However, this could lead more teams to consider the draft as a better option than pushing for the playoffs.

2. Reward Wins Post-All-Star Break

Currently, losing in the final months benefits teams. A reverse approach could be to reward wins in the second half of the season (e.g., post-All-Star break or last 20 games) to determine lottery odds.

For example, using last season, the Spurs improved their record post-All-Star break. This system would reward teams for competing through the season’s end.

An executive noted, “It would incentivize everyone to compete until the end.”

Teams like Houston and Golden State, who aimed for the postseason, and the Spurs, who remained competitive, would benefit. Teams like the Raptors and Jazz, who strategically lost games, would be disadvantaged.

3. Revise Pick Protections

Tanking is often driven by teams wanting to keep protected draft picks. The Mavericks’ 2023 tanking to retain a top-10 protected pick is a prime example. Removing mid-lottery pick protections could reduce tanking. Options could include top-4 protection, lottery protection, or no protection at all.

Wasch noted, “Pick protection complicates lottery reform. Top-10 protected picks create situations where finishing 10th or 11th worst significantly matters.”

4. Lottery Based on Head-to-Head Record Among Lottery Teams

One idea is to rank lottery teams based on their regular-season record against each other. This would incentivize competition, especially in games between these teams.

However, it might push teams near the play-in to tank for a better draft pick instead of competing for the playoffs.

5. Strengthen Enforcement of Current Rules

Some believe the existing system is adequate. The issue is seen as teams excessively resting healthy players. Stricter enforcement of current rules against this could mitigate tanking without further system changes.

An executive suggested, “Let’s start by enforcing the rules we have.”

Securing a top pick remains the most reliable way to acquire a franchise player. The NBA has already attempted to address tanking through lottery adjustments and play-in games. Wasch acknowledged these positive steps and indicated that the competition committee might revisit tanking issues.

“It’s reasonable to expect we’ll re-engage with our competition committee post-season to explore further solutions,” Wasch concluded.