The upcoming 2025 NHL draft class features several highly-touted prospects, including Erie Otters defenseman Matthew Schaefer, Saginaw Spirit center Michael Misa, and Boston College center James Hagens.
However, the first overall pick is not automatically awarded to the team with the worst regular-season record. Instead, the final order for the first 16 selections of the first round is determined by a lottery system.
Fans can tune in to watch the lottery proceedings, which will take place on Monday night. Below is a detailed explanation of how the process operates and which teams have the highest probability of securing the top pick.
Why is the Draft Lottery Conducted?
The lottery provides non-playoff teams with a chance to obtain the first overall pick, which is incredibly valuable. Theoretically, this system also helps to mitigate any incentive for teams to intentionally perform poorly (often referred to as `tanking`) in an effort to guarantee the top selection, as the outcome is not assured simply by finishing last.
Additionally, it generates extra excitement for the fan bases of the league`s non-playoff teams during the period between the end of the regular season and the actual draft.
Understanding the Lottery Mechanism
The process utilizes a machine containing 14 ping pong balls, which allows for 1,001 unique four-number combinations. Each team participating in the lottery is assigned a specific set of these random combinations. A team`s chances are directly proportional to their regular-season performance; teams with worse records are assigned more combinations. For the 2025 lottery, the San Jose Sharks, who finished last, have the highest number of combinations assigned at 185, giving them an 18.5% chance of winning the first lottery draw.
An independent accounting firm oversees the entire procedure. One combination is excluded beforehand, leaving exactly 1,000 valid possibilities.
The first combination drawn determines the winner of the first overall pick based on the assigned combinations. However, rules implemented in 2021 stipulate that a team can improve its draft position by a maximum of 10 spots. Therefore, if a team originally ranked between 12th and 16th wins the first draw, they will move up 10 places, and the first overall pick will then go to the team with the league`s worst record (in this instance, the Sharks).
A second draw is then conducted to determine the second overall pick, following similar rules, including the 10-spot maximum movement. Regardless of the lottery results for the top two picks, selections in Rounds 2 through 7 are determined by reverse order of the final regular-season standings.
A notable feature for 2025 is that the lottery draws will be broadcast live, allowing fans to witness the drama as it unfolds in real-time.
Teams with the Highest Probability of Winning
Here is the complete list of probabilities for each team in the draft lottery:
- 1. San Jose Sharks: 18.5%
- 2. Chicago Blackhawks: 13.5%
- 3. Nashville Predators: 11.5%
- 4. Philadelphia Flyers: 9.5%
- 5. Boston Bruins: 8.5%
- 6. Seattle Kraken: 7.5%
- 7. Buffalo Sabres: 6.5%
- 8. Anaheim Ducks: 6.0%
- 9. Pittsburgh Penguins: 5.0%
- 10. New York Islanders: 3.5%
- 11. New York Rangers: 3.0%
- 12. Detroit Red Wings: 2.5%
- 13. Columbus Blue Jackets: 2.0%
- 14. Utah Hockey Club: 1.5%
- 15. Vancouver Canucks: 0.5%
- 16. Calgary Flames*: 0.5%
* Note: The Calgary Flames` first-round pick in this draft was traded to the Montreal Canadiens in 2022 as part of the Sean Monahan trade. This pick is top-10 protected. If the Flames win either lottery draw and their pick lands within the top 10 (specifically moves up to No. 6 or higher based on their current position), they would retain their pick, and Montreal would instead receive the Florida Panthers` first-round pick (which the Flames also acquired in the Matthew Tkachuk trade).
Additional Lottery Regulations
As part of the 2021 rule changes, the NHL also implemented a restriction preventing any single team from winning the draft lottery more than twice within any five-year period, starting with the 2022 lottery.
Since the San Jose Sharks won the lottery last year, winning it again this year would render them ineligible to win the lottery again until 2029.
