Drafting Leon Draisaitl over Auston Matthews won`t guarantee you a league victory. The same goes for choosing Zach Werenski instead of Rasmus Dahlin, or Sergei Bobrovsky over Igor Shesterkin.
True victories in fantasy hockey leagues are forged in the margins. Everyone manages to pick strong players early on. The critical difference between a middle-of-the-pack finish and hoisting the trophy often lies in how effectively you utilize those late-round draft picks (and then, how you manage waivers and trades, but we`ll delve into that later).
Average Draft Position (ADP) is tracked for 10-team leagues, typically encompassing up to 230 players. This 230 figure represents roughly the maximum ADP you`ll encounter in your draft window or when analyzing player data within your league. If a player`s ADP is below 200, they are generally selected in the majority of drafts. In the 200-210 range, their chances of being drafted are approximately 50/50. Between 210 and 220, it`s closer to one in four. If their ADP exceeds 220, it`s highly probable they won`t be picked at all.
So, who truly merits consideration in that 200+ ADP range? Which players should you genuinely target for your final few picks when populating your bench in rounds 19 through 23?
In this territory, context triumphs over sheer star power. Hidden potential resides within the details: a coveted spot on the second power-play unit, strategic depth chart shake-ups, being next in line if a key star suffers an injury, or joining a team that has demonstrably improved this season. Beyond raw talent, success in the late rounds hinges on identifying players with a clear and viable pathway to significant ice time and productive output.
These are the players capable of transforming marginal gains into your decisive competitive edge. You`ll undoubtedly have your own specific targets for your own unique reasons. Below, I present 12 names with an ADP beyond 200 that I`m specifically focusing on, along with the compelling rationales that make them worth the calculated gamble.
Late-Round Forwards with Upside
Quinton Byfield, C, Los Angeles Kings (ADP 214.7): Anze Kopitar`s impending retirement tour looms over this season, and Byfield is his clear successor. He has already demonstrated enough promise for this transition of leadership to begin in earnest during the current campaign. Don`t be surprised if he contends for the Kings` lead in fantasy points among forwards.
Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken (ADP 228.3): While we`ve had four seasons to evaluate Beniers, with the overall results leaning more towards `average` than `exceptional,` he is still only 22 years old. However, it`s genuinely crunch time for him. He should be aiming to be deployed as a legitimate No. 1 center, logging 20 minutes per game, surrounded by potent goal-scorers on the wings. This is the pivotal season where Beniers will either achieve a significant breakout or affirm his destined role as a No. 2.
Cole Perfetti, LW, Winnipeg Jets (ADP 224.6): With Nikolaj Ehlers no longer with the team, someone needs to absorb those crucial top-six minutes and power-play opportunities. Perfetti saw a considerable amount of such time last season, but he will now ascend another rung on the depth chart ladder. Consistent power-play exposure should comfortably guarantee him a 60-point floor.
Jeff Skinner, LW, San Jose Sharks (ADP 229.9): Skinner isn`t operating at the peak of his prime, but crucially, he doesn`t need to be. The Sharks are steadily emerging from their rebuilding doldrums, and Skinner`s acquisition signals their immediate desire for some veteran offensive punch. He is expected to play more significant minutes here than he did in Edmonton and has consistently been eager to put pucks on net.
Valeri Nichushkin, RW, Colorado Avalanche (ADP 208.8): In the nascent post-Mikko Rantanen era, the Avalanche will require Nichushkin`s contributions more than ever to effectively flank Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog. When all the tactical elements align, he represents a fantasy standout you can shrewdly acquire after pick 200.
Jimmy Snuggerud, RW, St. Louis Blues (ADP 229.6): The Blues instill a strong sense of optimism in me this season. There`s invariably that one team that appears perfectly poised to break free from mediocrity with an unexpectedly strong campaign. For me, that`s this St. Louis team, which concluded last season with impressive momentum under coach Jim Montgomery. Snuggerud played a handful of games, looked entirely NHL-ready, and will undoubtedly be a contender for a top-six role.
Late-Round Defensemen to Watch
Jamie Drysdale, D, Philadelphia Flyers (ADP 229.3): Drysdale possesses a clear and direct path to quarterbacking the Flyers` top power-play unit, which constitutes half the battle for meaningful fantasy relevance. While health always remains a question mark, his undeniable talent and the opportune situation perfectly align here.
Cam Fowler, D, St. Louis Blues (ADP 228.6): Another defenseman with a direct shot at primary power-play duties and an integral part of a Blues squad that feels exceptionally primed for a big season. If he fully assumes power-play quarterback responsibilities from Justin Faulk, Fowler could realistically flirt with a career-high 40 assists.
Alexander Romanov, D, New York Islanders (ADP 219.3): Romanov won`t impress with dazzling offensive scoring, but he is a highly valuable multi-category asset who reliably accumulates hits and blocks while consistently maintaining durability. Despite recording only 20 points, his 2.1 fantasy points per game ranked an impressive 17th among defensemen last season, a figure tied with prominent names like Adam Fox, Josh Morrissey, Seth Jones, and Evan Bouchard – unequivocally proving that comprehensive counting stats hold significant value.
Late-Round Goaltenders with Potential
John Gibson, G, Detroit Red Wings (ADP 220.5): Finally liberated from Anaheim, Gibson now has a legitimate chance to stabilize his performance behind a team with genuine playoff aspirations. Even league-average goaltending from him in Detroit immediately transforms him into a sleeper bench goalie with substantial upside.
Karel Vejmelka, G, Utah Mammoth (ADP 221.4): The Utah Mammoth are undeniably on the upswing, and crucially, there is no other goaltender currently in line to genuinely challenge Vejmelka for the starting crease. Volume of play is unequivocally half the battle in fantasy netminding, and he is perfectly poised to receive it.
Jeremy Swayman, G, Boston Bruins (ADP 203.8): Swayman capably handled the full-time starter role last season, and despite the Bruins` organizational struggles, he demonstrated a clear ability to manage a heavy workload. Admittedly, the Bruins stabilizing is a considerable `if,` but he possesses all the necessary puzzle pieces to significantly outperform his late-round ADP and provide you with solid, starter-level numbers.
Late-round draft picks don`t always pan out as hoped. That`s simply the inherent nature of taking calculated swings after pick 200. However, what truly matters is strategically targeting players who genuinely have a concrete reason to excel, whether it`s increased power-play time, joining a revitalized new team, or simply being next in line for a significantly expanded opportunity. These are not mere lottery tickets you stash and then forget; they are well-considered, calculated bets with clear and identifiable upside.
